1 / 12

Managing Uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis (PRA): Strategies and Best Practices

Learn how to address uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Stage 2 through training and best practices. Identify, reduce, and document sources of uncertainty to improve decision-making. Enhance transparency and prepare for future research needs according to ISPM No. 11.

sdepew
Download Presentation

Managing Uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis (PRA): Strategies and Best Practices

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training

  2. Uncertainty Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training

  3. Uncertainty • Uncertainty is inherent to PRA • Using historical data to predict the future • Using data from one area to predict behaviour in another • Complete information is rarely available

  4. Uncertainty • In ISPM No. 11 • Document areas of uncertainty and degree of uncertainty • Necessary for transparency and to identify future research needs

  5. Uncertainty • Identifying uncertainty • Reducing uncertainty • Documenting uncertainty

  6. Identifying uncertainty • Sources of uncertainty include: • Incomplete data • Inconsistent or conflicting data • Imprecision or variability in data • Flaws in methodology • Subjective judgement • Lack of expertise

  7. Sources of uncertainty • Data • Missing, inconsistent, conflicting, imprecise • Judgement • Subjective, time-limited, expertise-limited • Methodology • Undeveloped, untested, inconsistent, not repeatable, pathways not considered or described inappropriately • Other • Pest & human behaviour, random events, unexpected events, complexity of biological systems

  8. Collect more data Validate data with observations Statistical analysis Research Use original sources Expert consultation / peer review Reducing uncertainty

  9. Degree of uncertainty

  10. Documenting uncertainty • Documenting uncertainty contributes to transparency • Define terms • Describe all plausible scenarios • State assumptions • Use your judgement • Experience brings confidence

  11. Uncertainty table

  12. Conclusion • Uncertainty is an inherent part of PRA • Documenting uncertainties and assumptions in PRA is a part of being transparent (IPC principle)

More Related