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Lavigne, D., De Sousa, A., Kanala, R.,

Social MARKAL: First Modeling Attempts in the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioral Uncertainties. Lavigne, D., De Sousa, A., Kanala, R.,. Cubizolle, C., Fragnière, E., Moresino, F. Are you willing to change?. Do you think technologies alone will influence

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Lavigne, D., De Sousa, A., Kanala, R.,

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  1. Social MARKAL: First Modeling Attemptsin the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioral Uncertainties Lavigne, D., De Sousa, A., Kanala, R., Cubizolle, C., Fragnière, E., Moresino, F.

  2. Are you willing to change? • Do you think technologies alone will influence and solve the GHG issues? Can it? Should it? • What would be the cost to make you decide to be part of the solution? To which extent? • Will your behavior be the key?

  3. Your behaviour • How does your lifestyle and behaviour affect the energy efficiency/consumption indicators? • Can it be influenced to promote sustainability? • What is the technical versus observed value of a particular index? • « If only people would not change! »

  4. Drivers of Change

  5. Technical vs Observed Value of an Index

  6. Our Core Business • MARKAL • MARKAL-MACRO • MARKAL-ED • MARKAL-Micro • TIMES

  7. Our Opportunity: Social MARKAL • Embed both technological and behavioral contributions to the environment • Collect data through surveys and social experiments • Evaluate • Habits • Willingness / Resistance to Change • Environmental Awareness / Sensitivity

  8. HEG: Haute école de gestion de Genève • Business school; Social research; LEM (Laboratoire d’Études de Marché) • Expertise • Consumer choices among alternative electricity programs in Geneva - An Empirical Analysis (Baranzini et al., IJGEI, 2007) • Influences of Public Ecological Awareness and Price on Potable Water Consumption in the Geneva Area (Catenazzo et al., XIII IWRA World Water Congess, France, 2008) • Elements of perception regarding Sustainable Development in Geneva (Catenazzo et al., 2008 Climate Conference, Germany, 2008)

  9. Awareness Programs Sociological surveys indicate that people informed through awareness programs or campaigns are more susceptible to change their behavior. Economy of Scope Sociological surveys indicate that people who are informed about how to behave better with a particular technology will apply their skills when employing other technologies. Social behavior Willingness / resistance to take optimal decisions in order to influence the impact of the choices on the environment Behavioral Studies

  10. Case Study: City of Nyon • 17,000 inhabitants 8,900 households 11,000 vehicles • Project start: March 2008 • Political Leadership; Public Policy • 5 bachelor thesis • Development of the RES • Standard MARKAL Model • Social MARKAL

  11. kWh for the residentialsector (end-use, by fuel)

  12. Fictive technologies representing awareness programs Fast penetration of change (using MIP) Modified hurdle rates Demand shifts (modal transfers) Based on social studies Social MARKAL

  13. Awareness Programs Technology A1 Demand A Technology A2 Awareness Program Technology B1 Demand B Technology B2

  14. Conclusion • Technologies alone may be able to solve the GHG issues ... but they should not. • At some cost, people are willing to change to some extent. • Awareness programs help reach GHG targets at lowest cost. • Social studies are a key part of GHG abatement strategies. • Ongoing work for the city of Nyon will influence public policies.

  15. Are you willing to change?

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