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Sustaining Enrollment in Independent Schools Nine Things You Can Do Tomorrow. The Association of Boarding Schools 2005 Conference, Chicago, IL David Erdmann, Rollins College. Enrollment Landscape. Enrollment variables Anatomy of school selection Past year in perspective. Full Enrollment.

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sustaining enrollment in independent schools nine things you can do tomorrow

Sustaining Enrollment in Independent SchoolsNine Things You Can Do Tomorrow

The Association of Boarding Schools2005 Conference, Chicago, IL

David Erdmann, Rollins College

enrollment landscape
Enrollment Landscape
  • Enrollment variables
  • Anatomy of school selection
  • Past year in perspective
enrollment variables
Full

Enrollment

Program

Communication

Market

Enrollment Variables
slide4
Market

Environment

Migration

Barriers

Generation

Trends

Economic

Demographic

Education

Physical

Cultural

Financial

Gen X

Gen Y

Next Gen?

Public

Private

Proximity

Access

Ability

to pay

Willingness

to pay

slide5
Communication

Internal

External

Message

Structure

Collateral

Buzz

Visibility

Recruitment

Process

Identity

Parity

Distinguishing

Characteristics

Publications

Web site

Individual

attention

Students

Parents

Alumni

Athletics

Open

Campus

Arts

Admission

Financial

Aid

IECA

Trustees

Teachers

slide6
Program

Mission

Position

Promise

Delivery

Satisfaction

Perceptions

Location

Niche

Cost

Retention

Buzz

Reputation

Value

anatomy of school selection
Market

Communication

Program

Curiosity

Interest

Commitment

Enrollment

Anatomy of School Selection

Graduates and Current families

“Buzz”

Full

Enrollment

Awareness

fall 2005 independent school enrollment survey boarding school trends
Fall 2005 Independent School Enrollment Survey Boarding School Trends
  • 60% report increase in inquiries
  • 64% report increase in applications
  • 45% report increase in yield
  • 51% report increase in total enrollment
nine things you can do tomorrow
Nine Things You Can Do Tomorrow

1. Read 6. Innovate

2. Research 7. Reallocate

3. Position 8. Sweat

4. Differentiate 9. Sharpen

5. Segment

slide10
Read
  • Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation, Neil Howe and William Strauss
  • The Harvard Business Review
  • The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell
  • The Anatomy of Buzz, Emanuel Rosen
  • blink, Malcolm Gladwell
  • Creating Effective Enrollment Management Systems, Don Hossler
  • Enrollment Management: An Integrated Approach, Don Hossler
  • Millennial Parents: Hard to get to and harder to keep away, www.erdmannconsulting.com, View Online Publications/Presentations
  • Financial Aid and Independent Schools: Doing more with less, www.erdmannconsulting.com, View Online Publications/Presentations
research your market demographics
Research Your Market Demographics
  • National resources
    • National Center for Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/
    • Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education www.wiche.edu/
    • U.S. Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov
  • State resources (examples)
    • New Hamphire Department of Education—http://www.ed.state.nh.us.education
    • Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education—http://www.dese.state.mo.us/schooldata/
slide12
Percent Change in Grades 9-12 Enrollment in Public Schools 2006-2012Source: National Center for Education Statistics
  • Northeast -7.4%
    • CT -10.4%
    • MA -10.4%
    • NH -19.0%
  • Midwest -5.8%
    • IL -4.7%
    • OH -6.4%
  • South -3.4%
    • NC -7.7%
    • FL -6.6%
  • West -1.1%
    • CA -1.7%
    • CO -.08%

“For private and public schools, demography is destiny.” P. Bassett, NAIS

u s high school graduate projections source western interstate commission for higher education
500,000

400,000

300,000

Asian

Latino

African-American

200,000

100,000

-

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

U.S. High School Graduate ProjectionsSource: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
u s high school graduate projections source western interstate commission for higher education14
1850000

1800000

1750000

White-Non-Latino

1700000

1650000

1600000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

U.S. High School Graduate ProjectionsSource: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
slide16
60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

St. Louis County

St. Charles County

20.0%

Jefferson County

Percent Change

Franklin County

10.0%

Warren County

Montgomery County

0.0%

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Year

Missouri Counties--PopulationChange Projections Children Ages 0-9 Years of AgeSource: Missouri Office of Administration www.oa.mo.gov
slide17
New Hampton School (NH) Sending CountiesElementary School Enrollment Changes 02-03 to 04-05Source: New Hampshire Dept. of Education

County% Change% to 4-year colleges

Alton +4% 50%

Franklin -2% 23%

Gilford -2% 55%

Gov. Wentworth -2% 37%

Inter-Lakes -3% 52%

Laconia -2% 37%

Merrimack Valley -1% 42%

Newfound Area +12% 43%

position your school or someone else will do it for you
Position Your School (Or Someone Else Will Do It For You)

According to the Boarding School Review:

  • White Mountain School is more selective than St. Mark’s
  • Montverde Academy has more faculty with advanced degrees than Phillips Exeter
  • Admiral Farragut offers more AP courses than Hotchkiss
  • Stoneleigh-Burnham has higher SAT’s than Western Reserve
  • St. Paul’s Academy does NOT exist in Arizona

According to TABS:

  • Verde Valley does NOT exist in Arizona

According to Johnny Carson:

  • South Dakota does not exist
differentiate your school what makes these schools different
Differentiate Your School What makes these schools different?
  • We enhance the potential of students and promote academic success and development of caring community members. We were chartered in ___ to provide college preparatory education focusing on community and individual responsibility.
  • Founded in ____ and located in ____, ____ is a private, mid-sized coeducational boarding and day school for grades 9-12. Our ____ students, drawn from 25 states and 21 countries, have chosen ____ for its fine academic, art, and athletic programs, and for the school's commitment to a set of fundamental values: excellence, integrity, compassion.
  • ____ is a coeducational college preparatory boarding and day school for 9th-12th grade students.  The values of citizenship and social responsibility are reinforced in a small, cohesive community which cultivates maturity, dedication and lifelong accomplishment.
  • A shared sense of community, a shared love of the outdoors, a shared sense of tradition, a shared sense of discovery, a shared love of learning.
what makes these schools different
What Makes These Schools Different?
  • Idyllwild is the place where dreams take shape in music, dance, theatre, visual arts, filmmaking, and creative writing.
  • The objective of Turn-About Ranch is to provide a tough, hard-hitting, high-impact residential program for troubled teenagers that will remold and turn around the lives of rebellious teens.
the power of differentiation
High

Specialized

Garden

of Eden

A

C

Power Alley

Boutique

Power Alley

Traditional

D I F F E R E N T I A T I O N

D

B

Death

Valley

Low

High

Price

The Power of Differentiation
segment your audience and your message
Segment your audience and your message
  • “If you’re not thinking segmentation, you’re not thinking.” Tom Peters
  • “Markets can usually be segmented much further and in much more sophisticated ways…but only if the marketer has a customer- and segmentation-oriented philosophy clearly in mind.” Strategic Marketing for Nonprofit Organizations, Kotler and Andreasen
  • Although there is a common set of characteristics that families seek in independent schools, each family enters the process at a different interest level and with a different set of information needs.
common characteristic set what families expect from independent schools
Common Characteristic SetWhat families expect from independent schools

Teacher quality

Academic support

College prep curriculum

College placement success

Small class size

Academic rigor

Safety

Emphasis on values

Strict drug/alcohol policies

case study top reason for selecting school x
Case Study: Top Reason for Selecting School X

ReasonStudentsParents

Academic Rigor 46% 58%

Student/Faculty 18% 28%

College Accept 14% 12%

Residential Env. 14% 11%

Admission Contact 6% 8%

Athletic Program 5% 3%

Arts Program 3% 2%

the power of segmentation
100%

90%

80%

70%

Resource

investment

required to

move

the family

to the next

level

45%

Awareness

Interest

(Inquire)

Interest

(Visit)

Desire

(Apply)

Commitment

(Enroll)

Commitment

(Graduation)

0

Family Interest Level

The Power of Segmentation
innovate on the demand side
Innovate on the demand side
  • “Demand side innovation…is about how a company orchestrates its customer interactions and relationships. It’s innovation with respect to how companies go to market, as opposed to what they bring to market.” (HBR, Febuary, 2005)
  • “Resistant cultures will make it more difficult to innovate and lead…” P.Bassett, NAIS
  • Better communication is demand side innovation. Millennial parents expect instant feedback and gratification—personalized and interactive communication.
millennial characteristics
Millennial Characteristics
  • Born in 1982 or later
  • Protected and watched over
  • Close to their parents
  • Rule followers—intolerant of those who aren’t
  • Prefer structure and emphasis on basics
  • Fascinated with technology
  • Compulsion for high achievement (esp. girls)
  • Seek moral and spiritual guidance
millennial parents expectations of schools
Millennial Parents Expectations of Schools
  • Great (not good) teaching
  • Frequent (constant) communication
  • Integrated (not superficial) technology
  • Supervision and safety (physical and moral)
  • Maximized outcomes
the power of reputation the power of demand side innovation
“Stronger” Reputation

Reputation Tropic

X

Reputation Tropic

“Weaker” Reputation

The Power of Reputation; The Power of Demand Side Innovation
reallocate financial aid resources
Reallocate Financial Aid Resources
  • Independent school enrollments are economically bipolar—high need or high ability to pay
  • SSS Applicants from families under $60K declining; over $100K skyrocketing(Bassett)
  • Rising costs will alienate customers, make schools less affordable and attractive (Bassett)
2004 2005 financial aid statistics source nais
2004-2005 Financial Aid StatisticsSource: NAIS
  • Average boarding school has 30-34% on aid, average grant is $14,430
  • Average boarding school discount rate is 20%
  • Discount rates are increasing at .5% per year
fall 2005 independent school enrollment survey boarding school trends34
Fall 2005 Independent School Enrollment Survey Boarding School Trends
  • 45% report increase in aid to new boarders
  • 38% report increase in percentage of new boarders receiving aid
  • 35% report increase in percentage of returning boarders receiving aid
  • 39% report discount rate <=15%
  • 28% report discount rate 16-20%
  • 33% report discount rate >20%
redefining need
Redefining “Need”
  • Family with parents age 42, one child, $100,000 in total income, $200,000 in net worth has an EFC of $30,000 AFTER TAXES!
  • According to NAIS statistics, 22% of 317 schools report offering no-need awards in 2004-2005 were boarding/boarding day schools; 78% were day schools
  • According to Erdmann survey, 27% of all respondents report offering no-need awards in 2005-2006
  • Although there is no evidence yet of significant demand elasticity, how long can it be before increasing prices will result in decreasing demand?
price demand aid relationships
D (Demand)

$28,000

P (Price)

a

b

d

Financial Aid

Full Pay

Partial Pay

c

e

0

210

300

320

Price/Demand/Aid Relationships
sweat the small stuff
Sweat the Small Stuff
  • “A stained carpet in the office or a burned-out reading light on an airplane may seem inconsequential. But when management ignores such trivial irritations, it is effectively telling employees or customers that they don’t matter.” HBR, April 2005
  • The Broken Window Theory--You don’t have to solve big problems to turn things around. “The impetus to engage in a certain kind of behavior is not coming from a certain kind of person but from a feature of the environment.” The Tipping Point
sharpen the saw and relieve stress
Sharpen the saw (and relieve stress)
  • Beating the Yerkes-Dodson Curve--taking the stress level up to the top of the bell curve and then effectively pulling the rug out from under it by turning to a quieting, rejuvenating activity..evokes the relaxation response..counteracts the negative effects of the stress hormones. HBR, November 2005
  • The Essex Institute for Independent School Enrollment Management

June 14 – June 17, 2006

Basin Harbor Club, Vergennes, Vermont

www.essexinstitute.com

[email protected]

slide40
[email protected]

www.erdmannconsulting.com

www.essexinstitute.com

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