Connecting User Needs with Weather Research and Forecasts

1. Connecting User Needs with Weather Research and Forecasts Rebecca E. Morss National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA

2. Overall Goals • Understand: • Weather forecasting needs of current and potential users of forecasts • How people do and could incorporate weather forecasts into decision-making • Connect this understanding with weather research and forecasts: • Compare benefits of different forecast improvements • Work towards improving forecasts in ways that are likely to greatly benefit society • And so on …

3. Projects • Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) • Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001 • Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk • Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research

4. Systematically, comprehensively assess the needs of users of QPF • Improving QPF has been identified as a national (and international) priority • QPF can be improved in a number of ways e.g., lead time, accuracy, spatial / temporal resolution, deterministically or probabilistically • Achieving different QPF improvements can require different research and operational efforts Which QPF improvements should we invest in, to most benefit society?

5. Assessing the needs of users of QPF Focus for this pilot project: • Warm season (approx. May - September) • Lead time: minutes - days • Users: Colorado Front Range (including Denver, Boulder) and surrounding areas

8. Methodology To systematically investigate how QPFs are and could be used, across society: • Identify (all) major users of QPF • Review and synthesize relevant literature • Interview “stakeholders” • Survey selected user communities

9. Flood / landslide warning, control, and response Water supply and reservoir management Hydropower generation and power plant cooling Environmental quality Agriculture Livestock production Recreation / leisure Fire management Transportation Construction Mining Public Sectors of Potential QPF Users

10. Purpose: Develop a baseline knowledge of precipitation impacts and QPF use in each sector Identify an appropriate mix of interviewees Construct appropriate interview questions Literature Review • Includes: • Peer-reviewed literature (meteorology, hydrology, etc.) • Existing studies of use and value of weather and climate information • Conference proceedings – Instructional materials • Overview documents – Web searches

11. Producers of QPF e.g., U.S. National Weather Service forecasters private sector forecasters Intermediaries e.g., U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (River Sys & Met group) agricultural extension services Users of QPF in each sector individuals, e.g., flood warning personnel group representatives, e.g., farming associations Stakeholder Interviews

12. Purpose: To develop a more complete, more detailed understanding of current and potential QPF use in each sector To test hypotheses and modify knowledge developed from the literature review and previous interviews Interviewees selected to represent a range of perspectives, rather than to obtain a statistically representative sample If necessary, follow up with a mail/e-mail survey Conducted in this order (to the extent possible) to help identify interviewees and refine questions for subsequent interviews Stakeholder Interviews

13. Develop user-relevant measures of forecast quality Estimate costs of precipitation-related events to society Estimate socioeconomic value of different forecasts Compare costs and benefits of different forecasting system improvements Identify subsectors, impacts, event types, forecast types, etc. to study in greater detail Develop societally beneficial forecast products and decision tools Develop the research programs required to generate these products and tools Examples of possible uses of results

14. Projects • Assessing the needs of users of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) • Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001 • Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk • Superstorm 1993: A case scenario approach for integrating meteorological and societal research

15. Use of weather information by QPF forecasters and users during PACJET-2001 • Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment, Jan – Feb 2001 • Goal: to improve short-term winter weather forecasts on the U.S. West Coast, with an emphasis on QPF • To explore use of PACJET-related observations and forecasts: • Interviewed and observed National Weather Service meteorological and hydrological forecasters • Interviewed several emergency managers and water resource personnel in California • Results: Maps of use of information in decision-making

16. Influence of weather and climate variability on evaluations of flood risk • Evaluations of flood risk (e.g., floodplain maps) are based on estimates of future precipitation and flood discharge • In mountainous regions (e.g., Colorado Front Range), such estimates are especially uncertain because: • Precipitation tends to vary significantly (in space & time) • Watersheds tend to be small and to respond rapidly • Available data is insufficient to account for this variability • Goal: To provide weather / climate information and analysis techniques that are useful in flood risk evaluations

17. Superstorm 1993: Integrating meteorological and societal research • On 12-15 March 1993, a major winter storm affected 26 eastern U.S. states, Cuba, and eastern Canada • “Superstorm 1993” caused, in U.S.: approximately 270 deaths, over $2 billion in property damage, power outages, major transportation delays, economic disruption, etc. However, many of these impacts are “unavoidable” • Using Superstorm 1993 as a focusing case, explore • Potential for improving different types of forecasts of such storms (e.g., increase lead time, ensemble forecasts) • Potential value of such improvements to society

18. Questions?