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Class 2000-C Capstone Project . Group III Randy Midgett, Carmen Cordoba, Michael Pope, Mike Birmingham. What’s Your Opinion?. Do you think legalized gambling in the form of a state lottery should be legal in all 50 states? Raise hands fore/against. 350 Million $$ Powerball !!!.

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Class 2000-C Capstone Project

Group III

Randy Midgett, Carmen Cordoba,

Michael Pope, Mike Birmingham


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What’s Your Opinion?

Do you think legalized gambling in the form of a state lottery should be legal in all 50 states?

Raise hands fore/against

350 Million $$ Powerball !!!


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Statement of the Problem

Can the DoD help set the information agenda in regards to what the public thinks about in terms of U.S. military and national security issues?


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Overview

  • Public confidence highest in 25 years

  • Military consistently ranks highest

  • Tailhook, Aberdeen, Lt. Flin, no affect

  • Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo - Presidential


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Overview

  • Defense spending lowest % of GNP

  • Since 255billion low in 1995, now excess of $300 billion FY 2001

  • Americans support increase


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Poll Data - Budget Amount

Too Little About Right Too Much No Opinion

28% 35% 32% 5%

26% 45% 22% 7%

17% 38% 42% 3%

9% 36% 59% 5%

1999

1998

1995

1990


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PA Perspective

  • Decline of military experience in congress

  • Possible negative impact on appropriations

  • Public Opinion can impact congressional voting on Mil. issues


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PA Perspective

  • PA develop, improve, maintain public understanding

  • Law prohibits PA PR campaigns

  • PA activities to general public = increased public confidence

  • Congressional voting will reflect


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Theory I - Public Opinion

  • Twain - “…voice of God”

  • Lincoln - “…everything…”

  • Madison - “…I know Kamchatka…”


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Theory I - Public Opinion

  • Mydar, 1968 - A diversity of open minds, shapeable

  • Chisman, 1976 - The idea of public opinion is closely related with democracy.


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Theory II - Agenda Setting

  • Lippman, 1922 - media provides view of outside world

  • Long, 1958 , Lang & Lang, 1959 - media has power over what’s talked, thought and felt

  • Cohen, 1963 - “…media tells people what to think about”


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Theory II - Agenda Setting

  • Funkhouser, 1973 - found correlation between public issues and newsmagazine issues

  • Severin & Tankard, 1997 - Public’s interest setting agenda


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Hypotheses - I

H1 - Military Public Affairs communications campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting.


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McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns

  • Communication persuasion

  • Change beliefs, attitudes, behaviors

  • “Input/output” matrix


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McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns

  • Input

    • sources, messages, channels, receivers, intent

  • Output

    • endpoints

    • determine success


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DoD Public Affairs Guidance

  • PAG (5405.3)

    • coordinated response of public interest at any level

    • Identifies spokesperson(s), outlines themes Q/A, media coverage (active/passive)


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Case Study

  • USA Sexual Harassment

    • Tailhook

  • Rebuild trust

  • Recover recruits

  • Retain independence


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Case Study

  • Communication Methods

    • Open communication

    • Cultivate confidence

    • Framework expectations


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Case Study

  • Communication Methods

    • Spoke on networks

    • 212 live interviews

    • 223 post visits


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Case Study

  • Communication Results

    • Enhanced public standing

    • Female recruiting up

    • Re-enlistment up


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Method

  • Content Analysis - Opinion of Military vs. Media Content

    • USA Today, WSJ, NY Times, Wash. Post, Chicago Trib, LA Times - 1990 - 99

    • PAG issues

    • Re-enlistment up


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Method

  • Seven-step process (Kaid & Wadsworth, 1989)

  • Article placement

  • Lag-time study (Stone & McComb, 1981)


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Hypotheses II

H2 - Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military


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Discussion

  • Results

    • Mil. PA communication campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting

    • Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military


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1990 1995 1999

78,479 63,268 65,309

99,977 76,873 81,881

99,420 73,932 76,905

13,126 21,120 23,198

18,366 14,169 15,271

Some Facts - DoD Budget

Army

Navy

Air Force

Agencies

Defense-Wide

Total 292,999 255,652 262,564

(in billions)


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Poll Data -Confidence in Government

Military

Congress

President

Great Deal Quite a Lot Some Very Little None N/O

34% 34% 26% 6% * *

9% 17% 51% 21% 1% 1%

23% 26% 30% 19% 1% 1%

(Gallup, July 1999)


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Combine

Great Deal/Quite a Lot (10 yr.)

Military Presidency Congress

68% 49% 26%

64% 53% 28%

60% 49% 22%

66% 39% 20%

64% 45% 21%

64% 38% 18%

68% 43% 18%

69%50%18%

85% 72% (MAR) 30% (OCT) 18%

68% N/A 24%

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990


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Comparison

Opinions & Budgets

$292,999 - $255,652 - $258,537 - $262,564

DoD budget

(in billions)

1990 Public Confidence - President - N/A


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Further Study

  • Content Analysis