San Bernardino County Mountain Region Population Growth Monitoring & Road Capacity Study

1. San Bernardino County Mountain Region Population Growth Monitoring & Road Capacity Study Presented to 2012 ITE Western District Annual Meeting, Santa Barbara, CA June 25th, 2012 Paper by: Noel Casil, PE (Presenter) Neelam Sharma, TE

2. Overview of Project Study Area • San Bernardino County • Mountain Region • Seven Communities • Bear Valley • Crest Forest • Hilltop • Lake Arrowhead • Lytle Creek • Oak Glen • Wrightwood Wrightwood Bear Valley Lake Arrowhead Crest Forest Lytle Creek Hilltop Oak Glen San Bernardino County Mountain Region

3. URS Project Team

4. Purpose and Need • A need to implement certain SB County 2007 GP goals relative to the evacuation of the Mountain Communities during emergencies. • Help the County determine appropriate densities for the development of the Mountain Planning Region given the limitations for emergency evacuation. • Study, analyze and provide recommendations for 7 issue areas.

5. Components of the Study • Input Data • Maps • Survey • Counts • Planning Data • Current and Projected Population • Transportation and Circulation System • Mountain Area Safety Taskforce (MAST) Evacuation Routes • Traffic Assessment • Population Report • Conclusions/Recommendations • Traffic Data • Facility Review • Capacities • Population Data • Existing • Projected • Mountain Region • Future growth • Densities • Consistency w/ Plan • Traffic Analysis • Speed • Time • Tiering • Study Results • Land Use Summary • Emergency Evacuation

6. Grand Prix Fire, 2003 Old Fire, 2003 Recent History of the Mountain Region

7. Key Transportation Facilities

8. Traffic Assessment Challenge 3 Analysis Scenarios Extensive Study Area 7 Unique Communities Meet Project Schedule and Allocated Cost Not reliant on esoteric Modeling packages Meet client’s expectations

9. A Simple Approach Step 1 - Define Evacuation Routes and Properties Step 2 - Gather and Translate Population Data Step 3 – Baseline Conditions (LOS from Florida Tables) Step 4 – Evacuation Analysis (Speed from HCS) Step 5 Step 5 – Evacuation Tiers used to minimize gridlock Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1

10. Key Analysis Assumptions • Reasonable segment travel time for baseline was based on distance and posted speed limit relationship • HCS was used to determine analysis scenario speed using vehicle demand • “Tiering” of evacuating vehicles was developed to attain progression through the emergency routes

11. Sample Results: Hilltop 2030 * HCS could not output results due the heavy demand. Therefore, total travel time can not be listed.

12. Sample Results: Hilltop “Tiers” For both SR330 and SR18, two tiers would be required to evacuate the Projected 2030 Population. Total time required would be approximately two hours. Specific Evacuation plans would be determined by the Emergency Response Teams.

13. Take aways from the study • The high quality of life in the Mountain Region should not be degraded by growth • Given reasonable amount of time orderly evacuation can be accomplished • Each potential emergency is unique and key field decisions and tactics is to be decided by the Incident Commander

14. Thank You for Your time