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Sensitivity Analysis of Cyclone Forecasts Using EOF and ECMWF Ensemble Data by Minghua Zheng

This research conducted by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) explores the sensitivity of cyclone forecasts using the ECMWF ensemble mean variance from December 2010. The study focuses on the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), revealing how variations in 500 hPa height affect cyclone intensity and position. Key findings indicate that the positive phase of EOF1 corresponds to a weaker cyclone and EOF2 to a southwest shift. Future work aims to further investigate sensitivity metrics and utilize multi-model ensembles to enhance forecasting accuracy.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Cyclone Forecasts Using EOF and ECMWF Ensemble Data by Minghua Zheng

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  1. Ensemble sensitivity analysis Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009)

  2. Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast

  3. Ensemble mean Variance Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst)

  4. Sensitivity of EOF 1 (weak/strong cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag Here, J is the principal component of EOF1 EOF1 positive phase: weaker cyclone

  5. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-60hr (24 12Z)

  6. Sensitivity of EOF 2 (SW/NE shift of cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag EOF2 positive phase: southwest shift of cyclone

  7. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-48hr (25 00Z)

  8. T-48 hr (25 00Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  9. T-60 hr (24 12Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  10. SBU CSTAR future work: • Examine sensitivity for different forecast metric J • Examine sensitivity computed using multi-model ensembles • Relate to ETKF sensitivity

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