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# Hints for Activity 10 and Individual 5 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hints for Activity 10 and Individual 5. LSP 121 hints!. Q #2 – at least once. Formula 1 – (Not A in one) n A = exposed to virus, the event P(A) = 1.5% = .015 P(not A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 - .015 = n = 10 for part a) and 20 for part b). Q #3. Expected value

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### Hints for Activity 10and Individual 5

LSP 121 hints!

• Formula

1 – (Not A in one)n

A = exposed to virus, the event

P(A) = 1.5% = .015

P(not A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 - .015 =

n = 10 for part a) and 20 for part b)

• Expected value

• start with what you pay as (-1) * cost in \$

• then add the probability or probabilities of gaining back each amount of \$

• Expected value

• In this example, start with the cost as 100% x \$1, express as negative: -\$1

• To this add the other winnings x probabilities

• -\$1 x 1 + \$20 x .012 + etc.

• Expected value = …

• Possible outcomes

• Set this up with 10 ‘boxes’:

Area Codes Exchanges Extensions

In each box, write the number of possible #’s that can be found there.

Multiply these numbers to find possible outcomes for

particular event (set of phone numbers or area codes).

• #1: possible outcomes (ski shop packages) is simply the product of the different sets

• #2: (# of ways to get a 5)/(total outcomes)

• #5: Example of calculating ‘odds’, usually expressed as a ratio, such as 2:1 or 1:2, read ‘2 to 1’ or ‘1 to 2’. Note: if something has a probability of 50% (for 2 outcomes), then this event has 1:1 odds

• #6: this is an example of multiplication rule #1; the probability of multiple independent occurences is the product of the individual probabilities

• #7: (total ways of getting 3, 4 or 5) / (total possible outcomes for 2 dice); be careful when calculating ODDs for this same situation.

• #8:

• a) empirical probability; do the math

• b) apply the math and predict for next year

• c) use ‘at least once’ formula: 1 – (not A)n

• #9: Use addition of probabilities to calculate ‘expect value’. Note: since this is ‘for the company’, you start with \$1000 x 100% + (-\$20,000 … ) + (-\$50,000 …) + …, since each claim is a ‘loss’ to the company.

• #10: This problem is slightly different in that two events are ‘non-mutually exclusive’; the occurrence of one event does not exclude nor is it excluded by another event. Simply work out the formula given:

• P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A and B),

• = P(king) + P(heart) – P(king and heart)

• = (# of kings/52) + (# of hearts/52) – (# of king of hearts/52) = …