The Kentucky Budget Outlook Presentation to the Friedell Committee November 10, 2013

1. The Kentucky Budget Outlook Presentation to the Friedell Committee November 10, 2013

2. Source: KCEP analysis of Office of the State Budget Director data, Consensus Forecasting Group October Estimate

3. Barriers to the Budget Kentucky Needs

4. Source: Office of the State Budget Director

5. Source: KCEP analysis of Economic Policy Institute data

6. Source: KCEP analysis of Economic Policy Institute data

7. Source: KCEP analysis of Economic Policy Institute data

8. Source: KCEP analysis of Economic Policy Institute data

9. Source: KCEP analysis of Office of the State Budget Director, BEA data

10. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

11. Source: KCEP analysis of Office of the State Budget Director data

12. Source: Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education

13. Health & Human Services Cuts • Rapid transition to Medicaid managed care • Mental health appropriations not increased for 14 years, Medicaid rates frozen since 2001 • Public health department funding 23% below 2008 level • Cut to child care subsidies to lowest income eligibility in country

14. Source: KCEP analysis of the Budget of the Commonwealth

15. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation State Health Facts

16. Source: KCEP analysis of Council on Postsecondary Education data

17. Source: KCEP analysis of Kentucky Retirement Systems data

18. Source: CFG October forecast, June 27 Office of the State Budget Director presentation

19. Tax Commission Recommendations • $659 million in net new revenue (8% of General Fund) • $475 million is from reducing deductions/exclusions in income tax • 15% refundable EITC • Elimination of property tax limit • Expansion of sales tax to some services • Tobacco tax increase • Utilities gross receipts tax for education

20. Moving Forward with Tax Reform Kentucky Center for Economic Policy www.kypolicy.org 859-986-2373 jbailey@kypolicy.org