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Gdansk, 7 April 2014

Gdansk, 7 April 2014. Report by Hungarian unions affiliate d to i ndustri A ll Europe. Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry) Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders) MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL)

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Gdansk, 7 April 2014

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  1. Gdansk, 7 April 2014

  2. Report by HungarianunionsaffiliatedtoindustriAll Europe • Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry) • Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders) • MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL) • Metalworkers' Trade Union Federation (Metal) • Hungarian Chemical, Energy and Allied Workers' Unions (Chemical) • United Federation of Workers' Trade Union of Electricity (Electricity)

  3. Elections • 6 April 2014 • oneroundsystem – tworoundbefore • thereare no practicalnumbers • Hungariancitizensnotresidingin Hungary mayvotefortheparty-list • New constituencyborders, reducednumber of constituencies (from 176 to 106), 93 seatsformparty-list; alltogether 186 seats less thanbefore

  4. Elections • National list: forconstituencyseatsatleast 500 signaturesareneeded. A nationallistcan be setupbythepartyhavingsetcandidatesinatleast 27 constituencies (out of the 106) inatleast 9 counties (out of 19) and Budapest. Everycitizenmaysupportcandidates of severalparties. • Mandateswill be distributedamongcandidateorganizationsabovethethreshold (5%  incase of one-party-list, and 10% incase of twoparties' jointlist, 15% incase of threeor more parties' jointlist and andminorityrepresentativesabove 5% thersholdrespectively). • Minorities, thatwillnotreachthe 5% threshold (out of allminority-listvotes, not out of allvotes) orwillnotgetatleastoneseat, will be abletosend a minorityspokesmantothe National Assembly from 2014, who has right onlytospeakbutnottovote.

  5. Results of thepreliminarypoll: • Number of partiesrunningcandidatesintheelection : 31 • 1707 canndidates – number of candidates has significantlyincreased • The presentgoverningconservativeparty Fidesz-KDNP …. mandates • The oppositionleague (MSZP, DK, Együtt-PM) • Jobbik – a right wingexstremistparty • LMP – a liberal, greenparty

  6. Effectiveness of Governance

  7. Development of the CDS spreads and theeconomic policy

  8. Changing figures of GDP %compared with the same period of the previous year

  9. Macroeconomic indicators

  10. 2014: economiccourseaccordingtothebudgetact The main macroeconomicfactorsaccordingtothevariousforecasts, (%)

  11. EUR/HUF rate Beforetheelections 2014 – 308,62 Beforetheelections 2010 – 261,60 difference: 19 % (~50 HUF)

  12. Statedebt

  13. Liquidation of theprivatepensionfund

  14. Development of inflation Rezsicsökkentés Forrás: KSH

  15. Development of industrialproductioncomparedtothesameperiodofthepreviousyear

  16. Employmentinthenationaleconomy(figuresinthousands) Forrás: KSH

  17. Number of employedintheprivatesector(inthousands)

  18. Structure of thechangesinemployment Forrás: KSH Ennyivel lett több állás 2012-2013, ezer fő

  19. Unemploymentinthe EU

  20. Development of theaveragegrosswage of employedworkers a nemzetgazdaságban

  21. Development of the minimum wage and itsrealvalue

  22. The main difficulty is that – because of somestructuralproblems – Hungary is laggingbehindintheregionregardingeconomicdevelopmentonthemiddlerunaccordingtothepresent market expectations Expectedeconomicgrowth(FocusEconomics, September 2013; %) CEE Min-Max (Mo. nélkül) CEE átlag (Mo. nélkül) Magyarország Előrejelzés Forrás: Focus Economics, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

  23. Structuralproblem: theinvestmentrate is thelowestin Hungary intheregion Investmentinproportionto GDP (%) * A 2014. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint a beruházás 2014-ben 5,9%-kal nő. Elkezdődik a felzárkózás. Forrás: Eurostat, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

  24. Structuralproblem: credit activity has beenthelowestintheregionforthelast 4 yearsnow Net credit outplacementfromthebankstotheprivatesector (seasonallyadjusted, inproportionto GDP %) Forrás: Nemzeti Bankok CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária

  25. Company credit intheregion

  26. Statistics and structure of taxrevenueofthecentralbudget (accordingtolaw) • VAT – 27%, incometax 16 % foreveryone, companytax 10% (upto 500 MHUF, over this income19%) Forrás: NGM, ÁSZ *Költségvetési előirányzat

  27. Structuralproblem: totalexpenditure of thestatebudget is stillhighcomparedtotheregion Gross sum of thebudgetexpenditures (inproportionto GDP %) Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra

  28. Structuralproblem: thestatedebtin Hungary is stillthehighestintheregionwhichcausesvulnerability The consolidatedstatedebt (inproportionto GDP %) 81,0 Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra; * A 2014.évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint 2014végére 76,4% várható

  29. Debtstockinproportionto GDP % Forrás: NGM, Eurostat, Európai Bizottság

  30. Contractedcompetitivenessranking 2008-2013 • Hungary has beenfallingbehindcomparedtotheVisegradcountriesfrom 2008 • The situation of Hungary has beensimilartotheone of theMediterraneancountries

  31. Actual TU developments Reportoncollectivebargaining: • AgreementinthePermanentConsultation Forum (VKF): grosswageincrease 3,5 %, qualified minimum wage: 118.000 HUF, minimum wage 101.500 HUF • Recommendationforsubsectors, electricity, mining, industry, companyorcompanylevelagreements • Retaining and recruitingmembers • Training, education (projects) • Inclusion of youthworkers, restartingdualvocationaltraining • Closeco-operation of industrial trade unions (metalworkers, mining, construction, typography, meattrade). Meeting of operativebodieson 27 March. • The newconfederation MSZSZ has beenofficiallyregistered.

  32. Actual TU developments Project onNOxoccupationalexposurelimits and use of chemicalsinmining EVDSZ-LIGA project Sectoralsocialdialogueafterthecrisis Quality of collectiveagreementsgettingweaker, conditionsofconcludingagreementsgettingworse Changing of employers’ behaviour, bargaininggetting more difficult Consequences of IndustriAllconferencein Madrid, tasksregardingthe EU Parliamentelections

  33. Demonstration of minerson 29 January 2014 We may need international support in the future Demands: • Occupational pension for open pit miners • Average earning calculation • Disabled category III disability benefits for miners

  34. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Köszönöm a figyelmet!

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