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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Vi PowerPoint Presentation
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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Vi

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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Vi

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  1. State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008

  2. Overview • Challenges of State Building • Historical Challenges • Where were we on Sept. 10, 2001 • What do Afghans want? • Justice, Security and Roads • What is State Building? • Building infrastructure, Civil Society and State Institutions, army and police • Building Capacity and Confidence • Fighting Narcotics • Delivering Services • Nation Building: National Reconciliation • Imposing Democracy? • How much has been spent? • Afghanistan v. Iraq • Post-conflict management • Idealism v. Pragmatism

  3. State Building and Nation Building • Historical Challenges: • Failure in Iraq and Africa • Success in Europe and Korea • Afghan Challenges: • 30 years of destruction of Infrastructure, State Institutions and Education System • Depleted Human Capital • No Clear Strategy • “You can always count on UN” • Uncoordinated effort

  4. What do Afghans Want? • Security: National, Local, Personal • Justice: • Cornerstone of state-building • Address atrocities of war criminals; millions dead and displaced • Means Building a Pluralistic Society • “Government small enough to fit inside the constitution” • Roads: To re-unite the country Do Afghans want Democracy? • Freedom from fear, tyranny & secret police • Access to basic services: schools, clinics, etc. • Every human being demands and deserves • We are preventing the imposition of tyranny and terror

  5. Reality on the Ground • Security is Fragile • Focus on Al Qaeda; Taliban pushed aside • Not enough boots on the ground since the intervention • Under-resourced Afghan Security Forces • Terrorist Sanctuaries in the neighborhood • Roadsare built; good progress • Justice Not Delivered • Choosing Stability over Justice • Fear of delivering Revenge instead of Justice • Weak Justice System: 54% of judges have no access to legal textbooks

  6. How to Build a State? Our Blueprint: Bonn Conference • Building consensus • Writing a constitution • Holding free and fair Presidential and Parliamentary elections • Training the national police and army • Bringing the judicial system into the 21st century • Fighting the Taliban • Combating drug lords, criminals and other spoilers • Coordinating 35 partner countries • Meeting and managing expectations of people

  7. Building InstitutionsArmy and Police • Afghan National Army • Trained 48,000 troops with a target of 80,000 • Training: 5k ANA troops every 10 weeks; New battalion deploys every two weeks • ANA has taken the lead in over 30 significant operations • A success story • Afghan National Police • 21 countries are helping • EU police mission: low level of ambition and accomplishment • Challenges

  8. Building the Infrastructure • Creating Jobs and re-connecting the people • Roads • “Where the road ends, the insurgency begins” • Doners dislike roads • The Ring Road and 10,000 km of secondary roads • Electricity • 11% have access to electricity • Building National Grids: costly • Power plants: Unsustainable • Importing Electricity: unpredictable • Building hydropower dam: slow

  9. Delivering ServicesHealth and Human Security • Making a difference in the people’s lives • Lives lost to terrorism and violence in 2007: 5,700 • Women died due to pregnancy complications: 18,000 • 2001: 8 % of Afghans had access to at least basic health care today: 65-80 % while spending $5 per person per year • 89,000 children and 40,000 mothers lived last year • 5 million children vaccinated: 25% drop in infant mortality • 4,000 new health clinics built • Polio is nearly eradicated

  10. Nation BuildingNational Reconciliation • Significant progress in reconciliation: 5000 Taliban • Peace Talks? • What are the pre-conditions? • Who are we talking to? • Public message and Perception • Joint Afghanistan-Pakistan Peace Jirga • Inconsistent treatment of terrorists by international partners • Hostage negotiations • Bypassing governors • Need unified and coordinated strategy to strengthen tribal leadership and traditional institutions

  11. Fighting Narcotics Fighting Narcotics is fundamental to state-building and counter-terrorism NO silver bullet and NO magic crop Where the government is present, poppy fields are absent Major challenge in 5 provinces Helmand produces 45% of poppy 13 Provinces are completely poppy free Only 8% of Afghan farmers grow poppy – the vast majority reject it Best Strategy Prevent Cultivation Improve interdiction Provide alternative livelihoods and Rural Development Only $270 million spent on agriculture in last six years Increase access to credit Enhance regional cooperation: Combat processing and reduce demand

  12. Fighting Narcotics *USAID

  13. Fighting Narcotics with DevelopmentPoppy is a Declining Percentage of Economy

  14. Putting People in the Driver’s Seat: National Solidarity Program • Low cost ($301 million) with impressive results • Formed 18,000 Community Development Councils and financed 23,176 projects in 12,637 communities in 77% of the country • Community-directed development programs: irrigation, schools and clinics • Empowers rural communities and improves quality of life • Irregular funding and uncertain future: facing a budget shortfall of $293 million

  15. Preserving National IdentityArt and Culture • Restoring our heritage • 5000 years of history • Kabul Museum, National Gallery, films • Digitizing of National Archives • Special Police unit for preservation of historic sites • Afghanistan: Hidden Treasures from the National Museum, Kabul • 17-month tour of U.S. begins May 2008 • Washington D.C., San Francisco, Houston, New York • 230 works, some 4,000 years old • Bactrian Gold, Greek Gods, Carved Indian ivory, Jewelry, Headdresses and Gold Ornaments • Reflect rich heritage of Greek, Roman, Indian and Chinese civilizations

  16. State-Building: The Right Model Successful Approach • Plan and resource for long-term presence and support • More robust funding; better accountability of donor nations • Unified, coordinated plan with uniform standards for all partners • Supporting institutions, Reconfigure and coordinate aid • Support Agricultural sector • Allocate more funds to Government or international trust funds Duct-Tape Approach • Unrealistic Expectations, Short-term vision • Underinvestment in building state institutions • No strategic vision, prioritization or proper sequencing by lenders (pet projects) • Supporting individuals, Unsustainable aid projects • Under-funding agriculture, which supports 80% of Afghans • Aid $ bypasses Government

  17. The High Cost of Doing Too Little in State-building The Light Footprint

  18. Underinvestment * Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007

  19. Under-funding Reconstruction:U.S. Resources for Iraq & Afghanistan from 9/11 to 2007 Sources: GoA Ministry of Finance; CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

  20. International Reconstruction Spending on AFG since 2001* Pledged $35 Billion Committed $19 Billion Delivered 14.5 Billion Given to the Afghan Government: $4.2 Billion *Source: GoA Ministry of Finance Does not include military spending Includes U.S. reconstruction aid

  21. Disproportional Aid:Afghanistan vs. Iraq Afghanistan • Population: 32 mil • 647k sq km • ~49k US and Coalition troops • $21 bil GDP; $800 PCI (adjusted ppp) • Lacks transportation and information infrastructure • Support of population Iraq • Population: 27 mil • 432k sq km • ~176,000 US and Coalition Troops • $87.9 bil GDP; $1900 PCI • Modern infrastructure

  22. U.S. Assistance to Afghanistan ($ billions) Source: CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

  23. Where are We? We have come a long way … but we are not out of the woods…

  24. Accomplishments A Growing Economy • GDP growth • 30% in 2002, • 13 now • 55,000+ Businesses registered • 17 Foreign Banks currently operating • Telecommunications • 3 million Afghan cell phone subscribers

  25. Post-Conflict Management Lessons Learned • Golden era after intervention • Coordination at international, national and provincial levels • Reality vs. academic approach • Constitution • Ethics • Managing Leaders • Pet projects vs. national priorities • When you trade freedom for safety or justice for stability, you have neither • To protect people from terrorists, do not treat people like terrorists • Do not subsidize poverty and failure State Building is Expensive, but what is the Cost of Not doing it?

  26. For More Effective State Building:Invest in the Heart of Asia • Economic growth is key to sustainability • The New Silk Road • Investment Opportunities: • Oil, Natural Gas, Copper • Cement, construction materials • Carpets • Agri-business • Power Generation and Road Building • Food Processing • Assist Afghan women and children

  27. Thank You www.embassyofafghanistan.org