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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008 Overview Challenges of State Building Historical Challenges Where were we on Sept. 10, 2001 What do Afghans want?

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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version)

The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management

Ambassador Said T. Jawad

Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden

World Cruise

April 2008

overview
Overview
  • Challenges of State Building
    • Historical Challenges
    • Where were we on Sept. 10, 2001
  • What do Afghans want?
    • Justice, Security and Roads
  • What is State Building?
    • Building infrastructure, Civil Society and State Institutions, army and police
    • Building Capacity and Confidence
    • Fighting Narcotics
    • Delivering Services
    • Nation Building: National Reconciliation
  • Imposing Democracy?
  • How much has been spent?
    • Afghanistan v. Iraq
  • Post-conflict management
    • Idealism v. Pragmatism
state building and nation building
State Building and Nation Building
  • Historical Challenges:
    • Failure in Iraq and Africa
    • Success in Europe and Korea
  • Afghan Challenges:
    • 30 years of destruction of Infrastructure, State Institutions and Education System
    • Depleted Human Capital
    • No Clear Strategy
    • “You can always count on UN”
    • Uncoordinated effort
what do afghans want
What do Afghans Want?
  • Security: National, Local, Personal
  • Justice:
    • Cornerstone of state-building
    • Address atrocities of war criminals; millions dead and displaced
    • Means Building a Pluralistic Society
    • “Government small enough to fit inside the constitution”
  • Roads: To re-unite the country

Do Afghans want Democracy?

  • Freedom from fear, tyranny & secret police
  • Access to basic services: schools, clinics, etc.
  • Every human being demands and deserves
  • We are preventing the imposition of tyranny and terror
reality on the ground
Reality on the Ground
  • Security is Fragile
    • Focus on Al Qaeda; Taliban pushed aside
    • Not enough boots on the ground since the intervention
    • Under-resourced Afghan Security Forces
    • Terrorist Sanctuaries in the neighborhood
  • Roadsare built; good progress
  • Justice Not Delivered
    • Choosing Stability over Justice
    • Fear of delivering Revenge instead of Justice
    • Weak Justice System: 54% of judges have no access to legal textbooks
how to build a state
How to Build a State?

Our Blueprint: Bonn Conference

  • Building consensus
  • Writing a constitution
  • Holding free and fair Presidential and Parliamentary elections
  • Training the national police and army
  • Bringing the judicial system into the 21st century
  • Fighting the Taliban
  • Combating drug lords, criminals and other spoilers
  • Coordinating 35 partner countries
  • Meeting and managing expectations of people
building institutions army and police
Building InstitutionsArmy and Police
  • Afghan National Army
    • Trained 48,000 troops with a target of 80,000
    • Training: 5k ANA troops every 10 weeks; New battalion deploys every two weeks
    • ANA has taken the lead in over 30 significant operations
    • A success story
  • Afghan National Police
    • 21 countries are helping
    • EU police mission: low level of ambition and accomplishment
    • Challenges
building the infrastructure
Building the Infrastructure
  • Creating Jobs and re-connecting the people
  • Roads
    • “Where the road ends, the insurgency begins”
    • Doners dislike roads
    • The Ring Road and 10,000 km of secondary roads
  • Electricity
    • 11% have access to electricity
    • Building National Grids: costly
    • Power plants: Unsustainable
    • Importing Electricity: unpredictable
    • Building hydropower dam: slow
delivering services health and human security
Delivering ServicesHealth and Human Security
  • Making a difference in the people’s lives
  • Lives lost to terrorism and violence in 2007: 5,700
  • Women died due to pregnancy complications: 18,000
  • 2001: 8 % of Afghans had access to at least basic health care today: 65-80 % while spending $5 per person per year
  • 89,000 children and 40,000 mothers lived last year
  • 5 million children vaccinated: 25% drop in infant mortality
  • 4,000 new health clinics built
  • Polio is nearly eradicated
nation building national reconciliation
Nation BuildingNational Reconciliation
  • Significant progress in reconciliation: 5000 Taliban
  • Peace Talks?
    • What are the pre-conditions?
    • Who are we talking to?
    • Public message and Perception
    • Joint Afghanistan-Pakistan Peace Jirga
  • Inconsistent treatment of terrorists by international partners
    • Hostage negotiations
    • Bypassing governors
    • Need unified and coordinated strategy to strengthen tribal leadership and traditional institutions
fighting narcotics
Fighting Narcotics

Fighting Narcotics is fundamental to state-building and counter-terrorism

NO silver bullet and NO magic crop

Where the government is present, poppy fields are absent

Major challenge in 5 provinces

Helmand produces 45% of poppy

13 Provinces are completely poppy free

Only 8% of Afghan farmers grow poppy – the vast majority reject it

Best Strategy

Prevent Cultivation

Improve interdiction

Provide alternative livelihoods and Rural Development

Only $270 million spent on agriculture in last six years

Increase access to credit

Enhance regional cooperation:

Combat processing and reduce demand

putting people in the driver s seat national solidarity program
Putting People in the Driver’s Seat: National Solidarity Program
  • Low cost ($301 million) with impressive results
  • Formed 18,000 Community Development Councils and financed 23,176 projects in 12,637 communities in 77% of the country
  • Community-directed development programs: irrigation, schools and clinics
  • Empowers rural communities and improves quality of life
  • Irregular funding and uncertain future: facing a budget shortfall of $293 million
preserving national identity art and culture
Preserving National IdentityArt and Culture
  • Restoring our heritage
    • 5000 years of history
    • Kabul Museum, National Gallery, films
    • Digitizing of National Archives
    • Special Police unit for preservation of historic sites
  • Afghanistan: Hidden Treasures from the National Museum, Kabul
    • 17-month tour of U.S. begins May 2008
    • Washington D.C., San Francisco, Houston, New York
    • 230 works, some 4,000 years old
    • Bactrian Gold, Greek Gods, Carved Indian ivory, Jewelry, Headdresses and Gold Ornaments
    • Reflect rich heritage of Greek, Roman, Indian and Chinese civilizations
state building the right model
State-Building: The Right Model

Successful Approach

  • Plan and resource for long-term presence and support
  • More robust funding; better accountability of donor nations
  • Unified, coordinated plan with uniform standards for all partners
  • Supporting institutions, Reconfigure and coordinate aid
  • Support Agricultural sector
  • Allocate more funds to Government or international trust funds

Duct-Tape Approach

  • Unrealistic Expectations, Short-term vision
  • Underinvestment in building state institutions
  • No strategic vision, prioritization or proper sequencing by lenders (pet projects)
  • Supporting individuals, Unsustainable aid projects
  • Under-funding agriculture, which supports 80% of Afghans
  • Aid $ bypasses Government
underinvestment
Underinvestment

* Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007

under funding reconstruction u s resources for iraq afghanistan from 9 11 to 2007
Under-funding Reconstruction:U.S. Resources for Iraq & Afghanistan from 9/11 to 2007

Sources: GoA Ministry of Finance; CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

international reconstruction spending on afg since 2001
International Reconstruction Spending on AFG since 2001*

Pledged $35 Billion

Committed $19 Billion

Delivered 14.5 Billion

Given to the

Afghan Government:

$4.2 Billion

*Source: GoA Ministry of Finance

Does not include military spending

Includes U.S. reconstruction aid

disproportional aid afghanistan vs iraq
Disproportional Aid:Afghanistan vs. Iraq

Afghanistan

  • Population: 32 mil
  • 647k sq km
  • ~49k US and Coalition troops
  • $21 bil GDP; $800 PCI (adjusted ppp)
  • Lacks transportation and information infrastructure
  • Support of population

Iraq

  • Population: 27 mil
  • 432k sq km
  • ~176,000 US and Coalition Troops
  • $87.9 bil GDP; $1900 PCI
  • Modern infrastructure
u s assistance to afghanistan billions
U.S. Assistance to Afghanistan ($ billions)

Source: CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

where are we
Where are We?

We have come a long way …

but we are not out of the woods…

accomplishments a growing economy
Accomplishments A Growing Economy
  • GDP growth
    • 30% in 2002,
    • 13 now
  • 55,000+ Businesses registered
  • 17 Foreign Banks currently operating
  • Telecommunications
    • 3 million Afghan cell phone subscribers
post conflict management lessons learned
Post-Conflict Management Lessons Learned
  • Golden era after intervention
  • Coordination at international, national and provincial levels
  • Reality vs. academic approach
    • Constitution
    • Ethics
  • Managing Leaders
  • Pet projects vs. national priorities
  • When you trade freedom for safety or justice for stability, you have neither
  • To protect people from terrorists, do not treat people like terrorists
  • Do not subsidize poverty and failure

State Building is Expensive, but what is the Cost of Not doing it?

for more effective state building invest in the heart of asia
For More Effective State Building:Invest in the Heart of Asia
  • Economic growth is key to sustainability
  • The New Silk Road
  • Investment Opportunities:
    • Oil, Natural Gas, Copper
    • Cement, construction materials
    • Carpets
    • Agri-business
    • Power Generation and Road Building
    • Food Processing
  • Assist Afghan women and children
thank you
Thank You

www.embassyofafghanistan.org