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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Vi

State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008 Overview Challenges of State Building Historical Challenges Where were we on Sept. 10, 2001 What do Afghans want?

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State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Vi

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  1. State Building 2.0 (Uncoordinated Version) The Challenges of Post-Conflict Management Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008

  2. Overview • Challenges of State Building • Historical Challenges • Where were we on Sept. 10, 2001 • What do Afghans want? • Justice, Security and Roads • What is State Building? • Building infrastructure, Civil Society and State Institutions, army and police • Building Capacity and Confidence • Fighting Narcotics • Delivering Services • Nation Building: National Reconciliation • Imposing Democracy? • How much has been spent? • Afghanistan v. Iraq • Post-conflict management • Idealism v. Pragmatism

  3. State Building and Nation Building • Historical Challenges: • Failure in Iraq and Africa • Success in Europe and Korea • Afghan Challenges: • 30 years of destruction of Infrastructure, State Institutions and Education System • Depleted Human Capital • No Clear Strategy • “You can always count on UN” • Uncoordinated effort

  4. What do Afghans Want? • Security: National, Local, Personal • Justice: • Cornerstone of state-building • Address atrocities of war criminals; millions dead and displaced • Means Building a Pluralistic Society • “Government small enough to fit inside the constitution” • Roads: To re-unite the country Do Afghans want Democracy? • Freedom from fear, tyranny & secret police • Access to basic services: schools, clinics, etc. • Every human being demands and deserves • We are preventing the imposition of tyranny and terror

  5. Reality on the Ground • Security is Fragile • Focus on Al Qaeda; Taliban pushed aside • Not enough boots on the ground since the intervention • Under-resourced Afghan Security Forces • Terrorist Sanctuaries in the neighborhood • Roadsare built; good progress • Justice Not Delivered • Choosing Stability over Justice • Fear of delivering Revenge instead of Justice • Weak Justice System: 54% of judges have no access to legal textbooks

  6. How to Build a State? Our Blueprint: Bonn Conference • Building consensus • Writing a constitution • Holding free and fair Presidential and Parliamentary elections • Training the national police and army • Bringing the judicial system into the 21st century • Fighting the Taliban • Combating drug lords, criminals and other spoilers • Coordinating 35 partner countries • Meeting and managing expectations of people

  7. Building InstitutionsArmy and Police • Afghan National Army • Trained 48,000 troops with a target of 80,000 • Training: 5k ANA troops every 10 weeks; New battalion deploys every two weeks • ANA has taken the lead in over 30 significant operations • A success story • Afghan National Police • 21 countries are helping • EU police mission: low level of ambition and accomplishment • Challenges

  8. Building the Infrastructure • Creating Jobs and re-connecting the people • Roads • “Where the road ends, the insurgency begins” • Doners dislike roads • The Ring Road and 10,000 km of secondary roads • Electricity • 11% have access to electricity • Building National Grids: costly • Power plants: Unsustainable • Importing Electricity: unpredictable • Building hydropower dam: slow

  9. Delivering ServicesHealth and Human Security • Making a difference in the people’s lives • Lives lost to terrorism and violence in 2007: 5,700 • Women died due to pregnancy complications: 18,000 • 2001: 8 % of Afghans had access to at least basic health care today: 65-80 % while spending $5 per person per year • 89,000 children and 40,000 mothers lived last year • 5 million children vaccinated: 25% drop in infant mortality • 4,000 new health clinics built • Polio is nearly eradicated

  10. Nation BuildingNational Reconciliation • Significant progress in reconciliation: 5000 Taliban • Peace Talks? • What are the pre-conditions? • Who are we talking to? • Public message and Perception • Joint Afghanistan-Pakistan Peace Jirga • Inconsistent treatment of terrorists by international partners • Hostage negotiations • Bypassing governors • Need unified and coordinated strategy to strengthen tribal leadership and traditional institutions

  11. Fighting Narcotics Fighting Narcotics is fundamental to state-building and counter-terrorism NO silver bullet and NO magic crop Where the government is present, poppy fields are absent Major challenge in 5 provinces Helmand produces 45% of poppy 13 Provinces are completely poppy free Only 8% of Afghan farmers grow poppy – the vast majority reject it Best Strategy Prevent Cultivation Improve interdiction Provide alternative livelihoods and Rural Development Only $270 million spent on agriculture in last six years Increase access to credit Enhance regional cooperation: Combat processing and reduce demand

  12. Fighting Narcotics *USAID

  13. Fighting Narcotics with DevelopmentPoppy is a Declining Percentage of Economy

  14. Putting People in the Driver’s Seat: National Solidarity Program • Low cost ($301 million) with impressive results • Formed 18,000 Community Development Councils and financed 23,176 projects in 12,637 communities in 77% of the country • Community-directed development programs: irrigation, schools and clinics • Empowers rural communities and improves quality of life • Irregular funding and uncertain future: facing a budget shortfall of $293 million

  15. Preserving National IdentityArt and Culture • Restoring our heritage • 5000 years of history • Kabul Museum, National Gallery, films • Digitizing of National Archives • Special Police unit for preservation of historic sites • Afghanistan: Hidden Treasures from the National Museum, Kabul • 17-month tour of U.S. begins May 2008 • Washington D.C., San Francisco, Houston, New York • 230 works, some 4,000 years old • Bactrian Gold, Greek Gods, Carved Indian ivory, Jewelry, Headdresses and Gold Ornaments • Reflect rich heritage of Greek, Roman, Indian and Chinese civilizations

  16. State-Building: The Right Model Successful Approach • Plan and resource for long-term presence and support • More robust funding; better accountability of donor nations • Unified, coordinated plan with uniform standards for all partners • Supporting institutions, Reconfigure and coordinate aid • Support Agricultural sector • Allocate more funds to Government or international trust funds Duct-Tape Approach • Unrealistic Expectations, Short-term vision • Underinvestment in building state institutions • No strategic vision, prioritization or proper sequencing by lenders (pet projects) • Supporting individuals, Unsustainable aid projects • Under-funding agriculture, which supports 80% of Afghans • Aid $ bypasses Government

  17. The High Cost of Doing Too Little in State-building The Light Footprint

  18. Underinvestment * Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007

  19. Under-funding Reconstruction:U.S. Resources for Iraq & Afghanistan from 9/11 to 2007 Sources: GoA Ministry of Finance; CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

  20. International Reconstruction Spending on AFG since 2001* Pledged $35 Billion Committed $19 Billion Delivered 14.5 Billion Given to the Afghan Government: $4.2 Billion *Source: GoA Ministry of Finance Does not include military spending Includes U.S. reconstruction aid

  21. Disproportional Aid:Afghanistan vs. Iraq Afghanistan • Population: 32 mil • 647k sq km • ~49k US and Coalition troops • $21 bil GDP; $800 PCI (adjusted ppp) • Lacks transportation and information infrastructure • Support of population Iraq • Population: 27 mil • 432k sq km • ~176,000 US and Coalition Troops • $87.9 bil GDP; $1900 PCI • Modern infrastructure

  22. U.S. Assistance to Afghanistan ($ billions) Source: CRS Report: “Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security and U.S. Policy” 11.01.2007

  23. Where are We? We have come a long way … but we are not out of the woods…

  24. Accomplishments A Growing Economy • GDP growth • 30% in 2002, • 13 now • 55,000+ Businesses registered • 17 Foreign Banks currently operating • Telecommunications • 3 million Afghan cell phone subscribers

  25. Post-Conflict Management Lessons Learned • Golden era after intervention • Coordination at international, national and provincial levels • Reality vs. academic approach • Constitution • Ethics • Managing Leaders • Pet projects vs. national priorities • When you trade freedom for safety or justice for stability, you have neither • To protect people from terrorists, do not treat people like terrorists • Do not subsidize poverty and failure State Building is Expensive, but what is the Cost of Not doing it?

  26. For More Effective State Building:Invest in the Heart of Asia • Economic growth is key to sustainability • The New Silk Road • Investment Opportunities: • Oil, Natural Gas, Copper • Cement, construction materials • Carpets • Agri-business • Power Generation and Road Building • Food Processing • Assist Afghan women and children

  27. Thank You www.embassyofafghanistan.org

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