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Quantifying Monetary Impacts of Forecasts. Rick Curtis Southwest Airlines 11/1/12. Measuring the Value. How do we measure our improvements without any existing benchmarks? What meaningful measurements can be realized that benefit both the “consumer” and “producer” of the information?

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quantifying monetary impacts of forecasts

Quantifying Monetary Impacts of Forecasts

Rick Curtis

Southwest Airlines

11/1/12

measuring the value
Measuring the Value
  • How do we measure our improvements without any existing benchmarks?
  • What meaningful measurements can be realized that benefit both the “consumer” and “producer” of the information?
  • How can we measure easily available items to get this process started?
airline perspective
Airline Perspective
  • Airlines are not always able to quantify weather support.
    • Quantifying weather delays are fairly easy.
    • Quantifying “avoidable” weather delays are not.
  • Most efforts to quantify benefits are not done to an industry standard.
    • Fleets are different.
    • Service areas are different.
    • Route structures are different.
    • Schedules are different.
  • Competitive forces may also inhibit sharing of data.
airlines already measure and report some of this information
Airlines already measure and report some of this information
  • Each month carriers report to the DOT:
    • The number of weather delayed flights per month.
    • The number of delay minutes due to weather.
  • At Southwest we also internally report delays for:
    • Gate hold for weather at departure station.
    • Gate hold for weather en route or at destination station.
    • Cold soaked fuel frost delay.
    • Deicing Delays.
nws taf verification
NWS TAF Verification
  • NWS TAF Verification considers:
    • General Ceiling
    • Visibility
    • Flight Category
    • Weather Type/Obstruction
    • Wind
connecting the dots
Connecting the Dots
  • How do we compare the two data sets to provide meaningful results?
  • How can en-route forecasts (ie. CCFP) verification results be compared with delay information?
  • How does the information get reported?
  • How many airlines can/will participate?
  • Who performs the analysis?
  • What priority does this have with both the government and industry?
going forward
Going Forward
  • Suggest a one day meeting with interested stakeholders to:
    • Identify short term and long term goals.
    • Evaluate barriers (technology, resources, proprietary information issues etc.).
    • Identify ownership of this effort.
    • Establish a working committee.