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Plug-in Electric Vehicle Readiness For CMUA 11/8/2010. SMUD Market Forecast for California. Year PHEV BEV % Vehicles Load Annual Energy 2015 226,320 18,275 0.3 580MW 720 GWh 2020 1,166,832 41,225 1.4 2,622MW 3,419GWh

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Plug-in Electric Vehicle





SMUD Market Forecast for California

Year PHEV BEV % Vehicles Load Annual Energy

2015 226,320 18,275 0.3 580MW 720 GWh

2020 1,166,832 41,225 1.4 2,622MW 3,419GWh

2025 3,383,271 285,600 12.2 8,765MW 10,824GWh

2030 6,188,367 585,900 30.3 16,477MW 20,148 GWh

Load calculations assume PHEV’s at 2kW and BEV’s at 7kW charging level

Energy calculations assume PHEV’s at 7.5kWh and BEV’s at 15kWh


Market Readiness Activities are Multi-faceted

  • Customer Process Development
    • Market evaluation
    • Channel Development (IVR, Web, Call Center)
    • Business Process Flow, (Back office software and workflow across units)
    • Staff Training
    • Metering and Billing
    • Marketing materials, (Brochures and Webpage)
  • Regional Charging Infrastructure Coordination
    • Local municipal governments
    • ARRA grant contractors
  • Business Model Evaluation
    • Cost-Benefit analysis (supports rates and business planning)
    • Business development
    • Distributions System impact modeling
    • Resource Planning
    • 3rd Party Service Provider evaluation

Customer Process Development started in May

  • Program built off existing R&D Program Team knowledge
    • 1990’s vehicle deployment experience
    • Historic automaker relationships
    • Current market place intelligence (business and policy drivers)
  • New Customer Program Development Teamed (matrixed)
    • Call Center, Training, Billing, Business Technology, Marketing
    • Planning, R&D, Metering, Distribution Services, Gov’t Affairs
  • Program goes Live on December 1st.
    • Business Process qualify assurance testing completed
    • Call Center and Energy Specialist training ongoing
    • 1st Marketing Brochure completed
    • Updated webpage under development
  • New sub-metering solution planned for January
    • Allows off-peak incentive rate
    • CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credit data collection

PEV Metering is a Hot Topic

  • Old Dual Meter Adapter solution currently not an option
    • Industry wide issue
  • SMUD developed service options (Developed with local permitting authorities)
    • Option 1 Sub-metering
    • Option 2 Duplex service panel
    • Option 3 New dual meter adapter (once it is certified)
  • Electric Vehicle Service Equipment Suppliers (EVSE) also getting involved
    • Embedded metering in charging equipment (Revenue grade?, Calibration?)

Regional Planning needed for Charging Infrastructure

  • Sacramento has 4 separate ARRA grants providing charging infrastructure
    • Who does what where and with whom?
    • Location and market segment issues (Residential, Public, Workplace)
    • Support for local municipal areas and potential revenue generation
  • All parties informally asked SMUD to take a central role
  • Basic approach on scope achieved
  • Detail coordination planning for high target downtown garages
  • Additional planning and coordination with other local governments is next

Grid impacts expected in residential areas

  • Residential charging can be a significant load
    • 1.5 to 6.6 kW
    • Transformer life reduction anticipated impact
  • Basic impact mitigation strategy
    • Know where the vehicles get charged
    • Encourage customers to charge off peak
  • Market studies expect vehicles to concentrate
  • with specific demographic groups and locations
  • Now performing analytical studies
    • Simultaneous charging initiation a concern
      • On peak or Off-peak with 6.6kW
    • Staggered charging has significant benefits

EVSE Suppliers trying to support new business models

  • EVSE manufacturer sells hardware to a facility owner and provides
  • back office networking capability for billing and potential energy optimization
    • Hardware sales
    • Network access and transactions fees
  • Facility owner is responsible for the O&M and Energy business risk
    • Cover energy cost
    • O&M
  • SMUD’s experience from the late 1990’s early 2000’s shows difficulties
    • Energy costs are negligible
    • O&M costs ran $127/station per year
    • Fixed administrative costs are dominate
  • Some business models have conflicts with resale of retail electricity

Basic Utility Business Case Elements

  • Distribution System Impacts
    • Local transformers
    • Overhead and Underground service upgrades
  • Metering Approach
  • Off-peak asset utilitization
  • Energy Cost and RPS Compliance
  • Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credit Sales
  • Charging Service / Parking revenue / Installation costs / O&M
  • Smart Grid Integration
  • 3rd Party Service Provider Teaming

General timelines for market development decisions

  • Near Term (2010 to 2012)
    • Develop basic customer support options
    • Create near term business strategy for charging support
    • Participate or monitor policy development to shape market actors
  • Mid-Term (2012 to 2017)
    • Mature PEV business strategy based upon real market interaction
    • Develop detail strategies for local grid impact mitigation
    • Research smart integration strategies for additional benefits
    • Develop initial strategies for real PEV load growth expected post 2020
  • Long Term (2017 to 2025)
    • Mature PEV technology and business strategies
    • Implement emission and resource strategies for PEV load growth

What should utilities do to get ready?

  • Identify or assign internal resources to become knowledgeable on issues
  • Develop a strategic plan for electric transportation activities etc.
    • Develop basic customer support options
    • Grid impact mitigation (charging locations, off-peak incentive rates)
    • Working with automakers or 3rd Party Providers
    • Customer outreach
    • Carbon or LCFS credit tracking
    • Develop a charging infrastructure strategy
  • Develop a customer outreach and education plan
  • Get engaged with other utility efforts or stakeholders
    • CalETC, EPRI, EDTA, NPVI, Project Get Ready
      • EDTA (Electric Drive Transportation Association)
      • NPVI (National Plug-in Vehicle Initiative)