Environmental Industry Review 2015Grant FerrierEditor, Environmental Business JournalEditor, Climate Change Business JournalPresident, Environmental Business International, Inc.Chairman, Environmental Industry Summit XIII, March 11-13, 2015 May 2009
Presentation Outline • BIG PICTURE: 2013-2014 data • Environmental Industry: Economics & Statistics; Trends • Key Growth Factors in the 2000s and 2010s • Consulting & Engineering Segment • California Perspective
Environmental Industry in Context: Growth SOURCE: EBI Inc., San Diego CA; Annual segment-by-segment research; government shutdowns in 1995-96 and October 2013
C&E: 4 Key Growth Factors in 2000s ALL ++ in 2004-2008 Economic Growth: GDP growth drives environmental markets. Real Estate: Property Values drive development, transactions, speculation, infill, brownfields. Federal Markets:DOE and DOD budgets and accelerated cleanup & closure; energy programs Oil & Gas Prices; Commodity Prices:Record prices and record profits by oil companies; same in Mining & Natural Resources; Growth driving global development Source: EBJ
C&E: Growth Factors into the 2010s: Policy? GDP & Real Estate:Development, transactions, speculation, infill, brownfields. Also M&A, stock market, capex investment. Federal+S&L Markets:DOE/DOD/EPA budgets; cleanup & closure; energy programs…. Cuts & sequestration Oil & Gas:Record prices and record profits by oil companies…. Fracking and North America renaissance; Upstream, Midstream, Downstream… Exports? Price collapse Commodity Prices:Mining & Resources; Energy, Water, Food = Nexus… Up & Down Environmental disasters to climate change:HW to Katrina to BP to Sandy… Response to risk; Adaptation & Resiliency Water & Wastewater: 36% of C&E revenues; stable-growth Source: EBJ
Growth Factors: California Perspective GDP & Real Estate: Plus compared to national Federal+S&L Markets:Neutral to positive in S&L Oil & Gas:Neutral to negative Commodity Prices:Neutral Environmental disasters to climate change: Neutral to positive Water & Wastewater: Neutral to positive; Water bonds Policy & Programs: High-speed rail, Clean energy plan, water, power, food; property taxes Source: EBJ
Growth Factors: California GHGs/Climate 4 bills in the California Senate 2015 package: SB 32: State GHG reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The current target, adopted by the legislature in 2006, requires statewide emissions to decline to 1990 levels by 2020. SB 350: 50% of our electricity from emissions-free renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and reducing petroleum in cars and trucks by 50% - all by 2030. SB 189: Committee on economic growth and job creation. SB 185 CalPERS and CalSTRS to divest coal companies. IL: RE 35% by 2030; increase EE by 20%; CO2e auctions; 100k jobs
Growth Factors: California Water Bond Aug. 2014: Legislature approved water bond ballot measure aimed at increasing the supply of water and habitat. November 4, 2014, voters approved Proposition 1 with $7.5 billion: $2.7 billion for water storage projects and $1.5 billion for watershed protection and restoration projects. Also groundwater sustainability, regional water management, water recycling and desalination, water treatment, and flood protection. Governor’s Budget Proposals. $533 million from Proposition 1 in 2015-16. This includes $178 million for various watershed protection and restoration activities, $137 million for water recycling and desalination projects, and $69 million for projects to improve drinking water in disadvantaged communities.
Environmental Industry in Context: Average Annual Growth Rate by Decade
EPA Budget for FY2015 shows erosion… Cutbacks focused in infrastructure finance, state water revolving funds. Dems lose House in 2010 Source: EPA Budget in Brief 13
DOD FY15 Proposal: Army on diet; Reform in QDR Troops coming out for draw down; but baseline remains defended by Congress. http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com 14
Industry Context The Green Economy Climate Change Industry Environmental Industry
Stock Market in 2014: Dow Jones IA Forecast Actual 2014: Dow Jones IA was up 7.5% Source: Environmental Business Journal 2014 Snapshot Survey; The Dow Jones Industrial Average passed a previous October 2007 high point of 14,160 in February 2013, and has kept advancing to around 16,500 in January 2014, or a 2013 gain of more than 20%. What percentage performance do you predict for the DJIA in 2014?
Residential Property: When will we get back to 2006 peak value? Source: Environmental Business Journal 2014 Snapshot Survey; Housing Prices: When do you think average national US residential housing prices will get back to their Q2 2006 peak value? (Note: S&P 20-City Index bottomed out at 66% of the Q2 2006 average value in Q2 2009 and meandered between 66-70% until Q2 2012 before raising very steadily to end 2013 at 78% of Q2 2006 peak value.)
Oil Prices: When will crude hit $140/bbl again? Source: Environmental Business Journal 2014 Snapshot Survey; When do you think spot crude oil prices will hit $140/barrel like they did in July 2008? (Note: 2010 prices were $75-90/barrel, 2011 $80-100/barrel, 2012 $85-105/barrel and 2013 $100-120/barrel.)
When will the US institute a cap-and-trade system similar to the EU-ETS or CA system? Source: Environmental Business Journal 2012, 2012 and 2013 Snapshot Surveys; 2009 response: 13% said never; 2010: 25% said never.
US Carbon Policy Forecast When do you think the United States will institute a carbon cap-and-trade system similar to the EU-ETS system in Europe, or that being tested in California; and/or when do you think the U.S. will institute a carbon tax or fee-for-emissions based system to restrict GHG emissions?
Coal: % of US Electricity Generation Source: Environmental Business Journal 2014 Snapshot Survey; Coal: U.S. DOE's Energy Information Administration says coal was 51% of U.S. electricity generation in 2003, and was down to 37-38% in 2012 and 2013, largely on the growth of generation from renewables and natural gas. What percentage of U.S. electricity generation do you believe coal will represent in 2020-2050?
Coal: % of China Electricity Generation Source: Environmental Business Journal 2014 Snapshot Survey; Coal: International Energy Agency says coal was 81% of China's electricity generation in 2007, and was down marginally to 78% in 2012. What percentage of Chinese electricity generation do you believe coal will represent in 2020-2050?
AEO 2014 Latest Electricity Projection for 2020 Demand is down 3%; NGas takes 12-15pts of share from coal. Wind expands. AEO 2010 Total 4,525 18 200 23 170 300 883 767 47 2093 Total 4,400 24 16% 24 Source: EIA AEO 2014
U.S. Environmental Co. C&E Revenue Source: Environmental Business International Inc., Annual model of the C&E industry
U.S. Env’l C&E Revenue: 1994-2014 Source: Environmental Business International Inc., Annual model of the C&E industry
U.S. Env’l C&E Revenue: 2004-2014 Source: Environmental Business International Inc., Annual model of the C&E industry
Distribution of Environmental Consulting & Engineering Firms in 2012-2013 ($mil) Source: Environmental Business Journal's annual model of the U.S. environmental consulting & engineering industry based on annual surveys of C&E firms by EBJ, EBJ interviews, compiled revenue data derived from various sources including ENR, EFCG, ZweigWhite and public company data.
Volume XXVI: EBJ in 2013 EBJ Vol XXVI No 12: The U.S. Water Industry EBJ Vol XXVI No 10 & 11: Environmental C&E Industry Review EBJ Vol XXVI No 9: M&A 2013 EBJ Vol XXVI No 7/8: Environmental Industry Overview 2013 EBJ Vol XXVI No 5/6: Corp.Sustainability and Sustainability Consulting EBJ Vol XXVI No 4: Remediation 2013 EBJ Vol XXVI No 3: Outlook 2013: EBJ Snapshot Survey 2013 EBJ Vol XXVI No 2: Future of Fracking: Unconventional Oil & Gas E&P EBJ Vol XXVI No 1: Executive Q&As and 2012 EBJ Awards
Volume XXVI: EBJ in 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 12: Executive Q&As and 2014 EBJ Awards EBJ Vol XXVII No 11: Consulting & Engineering 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 10: Environmental Contracting Services 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 8/9: Environmental Industry Overview 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 6/7: Global Environmental Markets 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 4/5: Natural Resource Management Markets 2014 EBJ Vol XXVII No 3: Outlook 2014: EBJ Snapshot Survey EBJ Vol XXVII No 2: Air Pollution Control
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CCBJ: Volume VI in 2013 • 2014 Executive Review & 2013 CCBJ Awards (December 2013) • Markets in Combined Heat & Power (November 2013) • Climate Change Industry and the Mining Industry (October 2013) • Carbon Markets 2013 (August/Sept 2013) • GHG Mitigation in the Oil and Gas Industry (June/July 2013) • Finance and the Climate Change Industry (May 2013) • Transportation: Alternative Fuels & Vehicles (March/April 2013) • Conventional Power: 2013 Outlook for Fossil & Nuclear (January/February 2013)
CCBJ: Volume VII in 2014 • 2015 Executive Review & 2014 CCBJ Awards (December 2014) • Climate Change Industry Drivers (Q4 2014) • Renewable Energy: Key Issues and Service Market (Q3 2014) • Energy Efficiency & Green Building (Q2 2014) • Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Markets (Q1 2014)
Climate Change Industry Leaders ($bil in CCI) 34 Source: EBI Inc., San Diego, Calif.
March 11-13, 2015 - 13th Anniversary Solamar Hotel, Gaslamp District, San Diego Grant Ferrier President, Environmental Business International, Inc. Chairman, Environmental Industry Summit Editor, Environmental Business Journal Editor, Climate Change Business Journal 4452 Park Blvd. #306, San Diego CA 92116, 619-295-7685 ext.15 email@example.com; firstname.lastname@example.org Sign up for free EBJ & CCBJ weekly news at www.climatechangebusiness.com www.ebionline.org