Africa Economic Forecasting Conference – 18 Nov 2011 THE FUTURE OF RAIL IN AFRICA Linden Bradfield PRESENTED BY:
AFRICAN ECONOMIC FORUM The Future of Rail in Africa
Planned Iron ore export. 2 mines (West Africa) 1,000,000,000 Tons per year 23,000 Wagons/day 7 x 400,000 Ton Ships/day x1000
Planned Iron ore export. 2 mines (West Africa) 1,000,000,000 Tons per year 2015 2013 2012 2014
Market Price vs Cost of Transport 300 km Line Current Cost Effective Transport Region
Market Price vs Cost of Transport 600 km Line New Technology Required to reach This region in immediate future Current Cost Effective Transport Region Sishen- Saldanha (861km)
What would shape the thinking behind this kind of project in the future? • Economic Factors • 1500km – will have to be rail • Capex – will probably be narrow guage. (30% reduction) • Opex – will need a more efficient technology even for rail • Self steering technology (40% more efficient) • Electric Traction (5% more efficient) • New thinking in terms of opportunities to offset costs
What would shape the thinking behind this kind of project in the future? • New thinking in terms of opportunities to offset costs • Selling power back onto the grid • 2,000,000 MWh per annum on this line
What would shape the thinking behind this kind of project in the future? • Carbon Footprint and social development • Future will not be “zero harm” but rather “positive impact” • Multimodal transport • Will be pressure to reduce carbon emissions • Taxes • Penalties • Carbon Credits • Commercial development Hubs • Employment • Income generation On west african project mentioned above. Self steering can reduce carbon emissions by 11,200,000 tons a year.
What would shape the thinking behind this kind of project in the future? • X- Border Corridor conglomerates • Lines currently govt owned. – will need to move to private enterprise driven ventures. • Shareholding with govt. sharing in revenue and benefits • Manage concessions, agreements, scheduling, maintenance, port logistics and SLAs. • Leasing rollingstock • These will be Massive undertakings. Already companies gearing up to meet these challenges. • Will require partnerships with relevant capabilities and capacity • Financing opportunities
What would shape the thinking behind this kind of project in the future? • Resource availability moving further inland. • Economy (supply/demand) • Efficiency • Green house gas reduction • Social development • X-Border corridors • These opportunities are on our doorstep. Most of the technology already exists to provide the solutions.
World record Longest and heaviest trains in the world developed in and running in Africa. • 7.3 km 660 wagons • 72,000 tons • Fastest train on narrow guage • 245km/h • Longest commerically operating train in the World • 4km, 342 Wagons • 861km continuously welded track • Most efficiently operated railway line (98.6% Avail) Let us not disqualify ourselves. The technology and ability is available in africa.