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The Future of Pastoralism in Africa. Setting the scene March 2011, Addis. Doom and gloom? Or. Dynamic change and growth, with winners and losers?. Demand for meat. Land investment. Land grab. Trade ban. Conflict. Diaspora invest. Disease outbreak. Drought . urbanisation.

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The future of pastoralism in africa

The Future of Pastoralism in Africa

Setting the scene

March 2011, Addis


Doom and gloom or
Doom and gloom? Or...

Dynamic change and growth, with winners and losers?


The future of pastoralism in africa

Demand for meat

Land investment

Land grab

Trade ban

Conflict

Diaspora invest

Disease outbreak

Drought

urbanisation



The future of pastoralism in africa
‘Moving up or Moving Out’ scenario - trends in livestock ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004), Shinile zone, Somali Region


History lessons
History lessons ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004),

  • Sudden shocks: disease, drought, conflict, trade bans – resulting in longer-term system shifts

  • Long term pressures: population growth, enclosures and encroachments – reducing access

  • Exits and returns: continuous process, with relatively limited opportunity for diversification and return to pastoralism

  • Differentiation – commercialisation in larger herd units, but relatively few


The future of pastoralism in africa

1 ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004),

4

6

2

5

3


The future of pastoralism in africa

Questions? ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004),


Programme
Programme ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004),

Four parallel panel sessions

‘Scavengers’ of ideas and critical thoughts

Bloggers for parallel sessions

Open Space

Plenaries

Tuesday am – reflections by over 30 years

Tuesday pm – ‘Question Time’

Wednesday am – Timelines and summing up

Dinners – Mon/Tues

Timeline analysis – Andy

Comms - David

Logistics – Leah and Yemi