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Public Opinion as a Resource

Public Opinion as a Resource. How it is manipulated?

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Public Opinion as a Resource

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  1. Public Opinion as a Resource How it is manipulated? 1. Samuel Kernell: “going public” – taking your case to the people. Paradox: presidents are going public at time it is least likely to work. Conditions that have to be in place for going public to have an impact. Measures of going public, why (technology), impact. 2. Bruce Miroff – the “presidential spectacle.” Not just speeches but “symbol-laden events.” Going to war as professional wrestling. The personal side of the president is “magnified by spectacle.” Examples from Reagan, H.W. Bush? Clinton as “post-modern spectacle” and Bush as “spectacle-in-Chief.” 3. Press conferences

  2. Public Opinion as a Resource, cont. Impact public opinion has on political outcomes: congressional roll call votes, vetoes, midterm election results, presidential mandates. Edwards argues there isn’t much of an effect that going public has on public opinion. When opinion does shift, it is the event, not the speech (9/11, invasion of Iraq). Maybe some effect on 2002 midterms, but not 2006.

  3. Press Conferences (per year)

  4. Public Opinion as a Constraint Determinants of public opinion based on two types of expectations: Institutional – expectation about what the president is supposed to deliver: peace, prosperity, domestic tranquility, integrity. Electoral – promises made during campaigns. Variation by type of issue: foreign and domestic. Jacobson – variation in public opinion on Bush varies dramatically by party.

  5. Public Opinion Dynamics of public opinion – general patterns for Clinton and Bush (Edwards Chapter 4). Honeymoon period, rally for Bush. Most presidents see a decline in public support. Specific dynamics – response to the impeachment attempt. Difficulty in moving public opinion on domestic policy: failure of the town-hall meetings on Social Security.

  6. Presidential Approval Ratings1946-2006 Bush 41* LBJ Reagan Truman Ford Ike Bush 43* JFK Nixon Carter Clinton

  7. Presidential Approval Rating, Bush 43*(Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll 2/01-10/07)

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