Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics: Risk Management and Improved Forecast Tools

1. Item SR-16 2011 Project Update:Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics David Sharp – NOAA/NWS Melbourne, FL Pablo Santos – NOAA/NWS Miami, FL Frank Alsheimer – NOAA/NWS Charleston, SC

2. Presentation Goals Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • This presentation intends to do two things: • First, remind us that there remains an open action regarding the operable status of the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics (TCIG). • The TCIG project is currently experimental • The Pending Decision: Continue? / Discontinue? • Cannot go official until the AWIPS II era. • All aspects base-lined, operations back-up functionality acquired, etc. • Second, set the stage for discussing specific action items as submitted for this year. • Consider: • Experiences of over a decade’s worth of events (2000-2010) • Experiences from Hurricane Irene (2011) http://www.weather.gov/ghls

3. Innovation ??? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Pre-dates AWIPS • Pre-dates GFE • Pre-dates Segmented HLS • Pre-dates Graphicasts • Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations • Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz • “situational awareness” • “decision support services” Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999) http://www.weather.gov/ghls

4. Innovation ??? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Pre-dates AWIPS • Pre-dates GFE • Pre-dates Segmented HLS • Pre-dates Graphicasts • Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations • Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz • “situational awareness” • “decision support services” A New Era: Build a little… Test a little… Field a little. Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999) http://www.weather.gov/ghls

5. Risk Management Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Room Survey: • “During tropical cyclone events, what important question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?” A.) What conditions should I expect? B.) What impacts should I prepare for? http://www.weather.gov/ghls

6. Risk Management Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Room Survey: • “During tropical cyclone events, what important question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?” A.) What conditions should I expect? NO B.) What impacts should I prepare for? CORRECT Note: Each graphic (by hazard) answers this singular question as to facilitate users in their preparations (e.g., not to under-prepare or over-prepare). http://www.weather.gov/ghls

7. Enhanced Web Pages Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Some improvements were made for 2011. • General housekeeping • Disposition • Code Clean-up • Impacts Descriptions Audit • Pre-season Work Templates • Availability of KML files • In addition to netcdf files Intuitiveness (?) True DSS (?) http://www.weather.gov/ghls

8. Push Button Meteorology ??? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Room Survey: • “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated results when running the associated SmartTools?” A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster expertise. http://www.weather.gov/ghls

9. Push Button Meteorology ??? Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Room Survey: • “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated results when running the associated SmartTools?” A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. NO B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster expertise. CORRECT http://www.weather.gov/ghls

10. Improved Tools Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • High Wind Tool • WIKI Pages (all tools) • Developer’s Version • Final Version • Prepare for official • “Forecaster’s Dashboard” • Tool of tools ??? Not a deterministic wind swath !!! http://www.weather.gov/ghls

11. Maps & Keys Potential Wind Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

12. Improved Tools Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Coastal Flood Tool • Developer’s Version • National Elevation Database • Land/sea mask; negative elevations • Final Version Note: Proper tide adjustments (datum); thoughtful edit areas with masks; future input of probabilistic inundation with tide. Not an inundation map !!! http://www.weather.gov/ghls

13. Maps & Keys Potential Surge Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

14. Improved Tools Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Inland Flood & Tornado Tools • No Changes for 2011 • Planned changes for Inland Flood Tool • Take advantage of HPC’s PQPF • Draft logic already in works • Input Data Sets • Need to be base-lined • Logic Thresholds for Low vs. Very Low Levels • Ensure that ranges are extended downward • SPC Probabilities http://www.weather.gov/ghls

15. Usefulness of Gridded Data Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Potential Impact Grids • Computed grid sets used by HLS Formatter • Availability to NDFD ??? • IMPACT vs. THREAT • Timing question ??? • Ensure to answer timing question with correct data • GIS Interfaces • Bulleted / Tabular Information • Other formatters • Complete the Picture http://www.weather.gov/ghls

16. Decision Support Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Identity • TCIG or gHLS (it makes a difference) • More Comprehensive • Marine • Wind & Seas • Marine-only events http://www.weather.gov/ghls

17. Decision Support Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics • Compare/Contrast Graphicasts and TCIGs • Local Information ??? • Objective Information ??? • GIS Intelligent Information ??? • Decision-making Information ??? • Are you answering important questions ??? • The Public Deserves Briefings Too • EM Briefings • Recorded Briefings • Point-n-Click Briefings (future; web interface) *** http://www.weather.gov/ghls

18. Recommendation • If continued, reconvene TCIG Team (in early 2012) to identify the list of required steps to move closer to official. • Prioritize tasking items and ascribe deadlines. • Additional technical assistance will likely be required from outside the team. • Web work (e.g., more comprehensive DSS Page) • Tool work (e.g., timing component)