Adapting to climate change in decision making Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme

1. Adapting to climate change in decision making Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme Climate change adaptation strategies in Impact Assessments Exeter, 8th October 2009

2. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) “Helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts” Set up by Government in 1997 • funded by Defra • based at University of Oxford Works through: • stakeholder-led research • partnerships • programmes • capacity building A boundary organisation Provides free guidance, tools and datasets: www.ukcip.org.uk

3. UKCIP & IEMA • IEMA Practitioner, July 2009 – • “Adapting to climate change: a guide to its management in organisations” • Managing the process • Understanding the climate risk • Developing an adaptation strategy

4. 1. Managing the process • Understanding the problem • Identifying drivers and barriers • Overcoming the constraints • Who to involve? • Mainstreaming adaptation

5. Understanding the problem: from climate ... Impacts Trends Events Consequences Damage to physical assets Loss of access to buildings Effects on biological/ industrial processes Uncomfortable indoor environments Damage to critical infrastructure Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes Changing commodity prices/ availability Heat waves Droughts Floods Fewer cold snaps Storms Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours Sea level rise Loss of business continuity Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs Health/ comfort implications for employees Increased/ decreased productivity Changing markets Effect on reputation

6. ... to consequences Environmental risk Reputational risk Operational risk Health & safety risk Strategic risk Financial risk Climate Change Potential impacts on: Markets Logistics Process Finance People Premises Management response Impacts on Markets Finances Logistics Processes Premises People Consequences for organisation & stakeholders

7. IEMA members’ survey Around 1,000 IEMA members provided feedback, September 2009 • 62% of organisations are planning now for adaptation to climate change (local government 90%, utilities 76%, other business sectors 62% - 65%) • Identifying risks relating to their • Markets 53% • Finances 46% • Logistics 44% • Processes 53% • Premises 57% • People 49%

8. Identifying drivers and barriers Stakeholder requirements Increasing exposure to liability or costs Opportunities for improvements • Lack of knowledge or resources • Long term / short term decisions • Attitudes to risk & uncertainty Adaptation For Against

9. 2. Understanding the climate risk • Vulnerability • Critical thresholds • Scoping future impacts • From impacts to risk

10. What is vulnerability? • Vulnerability is a function of • sensitivity to climatic variability & change • exposure to climate risk • capacity to adapt • Affected by factors such as • supply chain, physical assets, activities, market features, locations, resources, institutional arrangements • An organisation should be able to identify • how particular types of weather have affected it in the past • critical thresholds

11. Developing a Local Climate Impacts Profile • Uses past experiences and events to review where operations are currently affected by weather risks • review significant recent local weather events, the consequences and institutional responses in order to understand current vulnerability • assess effectiveness of current response arrangements • use information to raise awareness and prompt action on high priority threats and opportunities • process can then be developed into a more systematic monitoring of impacts • identify critical thresholds, which, if exceeded will cause unacceptable risks

12. Scoping future impacts: BACLIAT markets logistics process finance people Premises Leading to management responses Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’

13. 3. Developing an adaptation strategy • Making a commitment • Setting adaptation objectives • Prioritising areas for action • Identifying adaptation options • Evaluating adaptation options • Putting together a programme • Keeping it relevant

14. Identifying adaptation options • Building • Adaptive Capacity • Create, gather or share information e.g. research • Create supportive governance e.g. standards • Create supportive organisational structure e.g. partnerships • Delivering Adaptation Actions • Accept, spread or share loss • e.g. Insurance • Avoid or minimise negative impacts • Exploit positive opportunities • e.g. introduce new activity For example: Strategic solution Temporary arrangement Separate hazard from receptor Technical fix Change working practice System for quick recovery Actions for others

15. And finally – important to remember! Support is available • Use the skills and knowledge in your organisation • Use your professional bodies and networks • Use the experience within your sector • Use the resources within your region • Use the expertise of researchers and consultancies • Use national tools and resources – e.g. Defra, Met Office, UKCIP

16. Thank you! business@ukcip.org.uk www.ukcip.org.uk