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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO

ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO. C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002. C-CIARN Mission.

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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO

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  1. ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

  2. C-CIARN Mission The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.

  3. C-CIARN Structure C-CIARN Board Advisory Committee Private Sector NGOs Universities Federal Depts. Steering Committee Communities Prov/Terr agencies Atlantic (Office at Dalhousie U., Halifax) Quebec (Office at Ouranos, Montreal) Prairies(Office at PARC, U. of Regina) National C-CIARN Coordinating Office Landscape Hazards(Office at GSC Ottawa) Ontario(Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury) Forest (Office at CFS Edmonton) Fisheries (Office at DFO Nanaimo) Coastal Zone(Office at BIO Dartmouth) North (Office at Northern Climate Exchange, Whitehorse) Health (Office at HC Ottawa) Water Resources (Office at McGill U., Montreal) British Columbia(Office at UBC, Vancouver) Yukon NWT Nunavut Agriculture (Office at U. of Guelph) Sectors Regions

  4. Communities in Ontario 258 communities with population > 1,000 Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M 13 communities >100,000 7 communities 50,000 – 99,000 37 communities 10,000 – 49,900 201 communities 1,000 – 9,999 Stats Canada, 2001 census Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges

  5. 2010-2030with respect to 1975-1995 500 3000 km 0 2040-2060with respect to 1975-1995 2080-2100with respect to 1975-1995 Long Term Temperature Changes Average Temperature, with the Canadian model[scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)

  6. Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Some increased winter precipitation over Ontario More rain – less snow

  7. Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Changed summer precipitation - droughts - food production Also - changes in extremes

  8. Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges 1 metre drop in lake level possible 184 177 175 183.5 X X X 176 X 174 75.5 183 175 X X 173 X 74.5 182.5 Lake Superior 174 172 Lakes Michigan-Huron 73.5 Lake Erie X 72.5 X Average, 1918-1998 Lake Ontario X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

  9. Droughts and Low Water Levels • severe drought 1997-99 • low lake levels; beached harbours • groundwater supply concerns • some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s

  10. Impacts on Agriculture Positive Negative • Changes • warmer temperatures • drier or wetter • increased frequency of extreme events • enhanced atmospheric CO2 Increased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO2 Longer growing seasons Accelerated maturation rates Possibility of growing new crops Increased insect infestations Crop damage from extreme heat Increased moisture stress and drought Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy Increased soil erosion

  11. AdaptationPurpose Crop Development Breed new varieties and hybrids to cop with changes in climate and environment Crop Selection To take advantage of crops that potentially suited to the new conditions such as a longer growing season Farm Production Practices Diversify crop and livestock types and varieties. Land Use Locate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks

  12. AdaptationPurpose Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease Plant drought -adapted species and genotypes Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes Plant climate - adapted species Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently

  13. Assess current vulnerability Use experience to assess impacts and damages Project future conditions Climate / environment Socioeconomic Policy and development Adaptation Process Understanding Vulnerability Engage stakeholders Those affected Key decision makers Develop / implement appropriate policies / practices

  14. Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

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