Pilot Testing on SHRP 2 C11Development of Tools for Assessing Wider Economic Benefits Project Study and Drafted Testing Plan
Outline • Methodology • Project Products – Excel Based Tool • Drafted Testing Plan
Methodology • Traditional transportation benefits • Measurement of transportation efficiency – represented in terms of direct effects on travel time, vehicle operating cost and collision incident cost • Traveler or user benefits • Broader measures – environmental and social effects • Wider Transportation Benefits • How transportation improvement project can benefit other parties besides just the traveler • Broader indirect effects on the economy: savings in delivery costs and household transportation costs, adding jobs, wages or value (Gross Domestic Product)
Methodology • Project Objectives • Provide a set of four tools for transportation impact assessment that planners can use to assess the impacts of transportation capacity projects on conditions that directly affect wider economic benefits. • Travel time reliability • Market access • Intermodal connectivity, and • An accounting system for incorporating the above three metrics into economic benefit and economic impact analyses
Methodology • Travel Time Reliability Effects • Transportation projects • Reduce congestion -> • Reduce average travel time / traffic incidents-> • Reduce length of traffic backups that result from incidents -> • Less uncertainty in freight pickup and drop-off time -> • Reduction in inventories (safety stocks) -> • More centralized warehousing and delivery processes • Transportation projects • Reliability Improvement -> • Reduce Employee lateness-> • Enable business operations to make more productive use of workers who did show up on time Supply Chain Logistics Benefits Labor Productivity Benefits
Methodology • Market Access • Expand the breadth of destinations that can be served by same-day truck deliveries, or the size of areas from which a business can expect to draw customers and workers • Customer delivery market • Enable scale economies in production and/or delivery processes • Worker labor market • Enable scale economies through better matching of specialized business needs and specialized worker skills • Enable more innovation through greater interaction of complementary firms and their employees Agglomeration Benefits
Methodology • Intermodal Connectivity Effects • Projects enhancing the frequency of service and reducing total time involved for bus/car/truck movements between business locations and intermodal terminals (airports, marine ports, rail terminals or intermodal truck/rail facilities) • Enhance the frequency of air, marine or rail services, or breadth of origins/destinations directly accessible from terminals Faster Movement
Methodology • Factors Affecting Reliability and Access Impact
Products - Travel Time Reliability • Product Input • Basic Analysis Unit – Highway Segments • Not be so long that the characteristics change dramatically along the segment, or be too short that input is burdensome • Freeways: between interchanges • Signalized highways: between signals • Rural highways (non-freeways): 2-5 miles • Traffic Data • Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT), current • Annual traffic growth rate (%) • Inventory Data • Rout, beginning/ending milepost, highway type, No. of lanes, free flow speed… • Truck Data (%)
Products - Travel Time Reliability • Product Input • Capacity Data (peak capacity) • Alternately • G/C ratio (effective green time/cycle length) • Terrain • Time Horizon • No. of years into the future for which the analysis applies • Analysis Period • Hours of the day (e.g., 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM) • Economic Analysis Data - According to Literatures • Unit cost of travel time, personal ($/hour): default = $19.86 • Unit cost of travel time, commercial ($/hour): default = $36.05 • Reliability Ratio, personal: default = 0.8 • Reliability Ratio, commercial: default = 1.1
Products - Travel Time Reliability • Project Output – Yearly (Current Year and Future Year) • Recurring delay (hours) • Incident delay (hours) • Total delay (hours) • Overall travel time index • 95th percentile travel time index • 80th percentile travel time index • Percent of trips < 45 mph • Percent of trips < 30 mph • Cost of recurring delay • Cost of unreliability • Total congestion cost How to measure??
Products - Travel Time Reliability • Compute Congestion and Reliability Costs • TotalDelayCostVT = TotalEquivalentAnnualWeekdayDelayVT* UnitCostVT • RecurringDelayCostVT = TotalDelayCostVT * (TTI50/TTIe(VT)) • ReliabilityCostVT = TotalDelayCostVT - RecurringDelayCostVT • Costs should be computed separately for each vehicle type (passenger vs. commercial cars) and summed.
Testing – Travel Time Reliability • Data • Location: I-5 JBLM (between interchanges) • Traffic Data (yearly): 2007 – 2012? • Testing • Option 1: • Follow the approaches, test the approaches’ correctness, and provide alternative delay computation methods based on our study • Compare the approaches with literatures • Option 2: • Compare the data with field data (delay cost) • Travel cost (delay -> cost) • Roadway treatment cost • Incident/accident cost (property damage, death?) • Option 3: • Survey with economic expert (is the cost reasonable?)
Products – Accessibility • ERS Typology and Location Quotient for Manufacturing for the Study Area
Products – Accessibility • GIS Mapping of Effective Densities as Measure of Market Access
Testing - Accessibility • Data • Improvements / new built roads • Industry layout • … • Testing • Long term forecast • Can we get the historical data from city planning department? • How to eliminate other factors impact? Such as population growth, commercial center new built, economy growth resulted from other industry development, etc..
Products - Connectivity • Input • Drawn primarily from public data sources, including: • Level of activity of a terminal - tonnage or containers for freight or trips for passenger modes • Value of goods moved (for freight) - measured in value per ton or value per container • Number of locations served by the facility - how many other unique geographic areas (domestic and international) this terminal connects to
Products - Connectivity • Calculation for Freight and Passenger Index • Freight connectivity index = Tons of freight X Average value per ton X Number of distinct locations served • Freight connectivity index = Containers of freight X Average value per container X Number of distinct locations served • Passenger connectivity Index = Number of passengers X Number of distinct locations served
Product - Connectivity • Data Source • Marine Freight • Total containers and tons arriving and leaving from the port are multiplied by an average value per ton and average value per container estimated from Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) data • Air Passenger • Use the US Department of Transportation’s T-100 Domestic and International Air Carrier Data, available from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) to determine the number of passengers arriving or leaving the airport • Air Cargo • Total freight tons is multiplied by the number of origins and destinations and an average value per ton to estimate the inde
Products - Connectivity • Input • Intermodal Facility (Type, name, number of annual containers for rail freight intermodal facilities) • Improvement • Distance of improvement • Number of trucks within study area (annual) • Hours saved per truck (a fraction of an hour) • Value per truck hour for freight facilities – crew cost + freight logistics cost • Value per passenger • Fraction of user using the improved segment to access the facility • Default fraction factor: the further away from the intermodal facility the improvement is, the less impact it will have on the intermodal facility
Products - Connectivity • Data Source • Freight Rail • Estimate activity using the annual container lift capacity of the terminal. • Passenger Rail • Focus on Amtrak intercity rail terminals. Total tickets and number of locations served are used to estimate an index for these facilities
Products - Connectivity • Output • Value of activity • Facility connectivity raw value • Relative facility connectivity index • Total value of truck activity saved • Total value of time savings for facility • Weighted connectivity ($)
Testing - Connectivity • Data • I-5 JBLM ? (between interchanges) • Freight and Passenger Car Data (Traffic Analysis Zones in Puget Sound Area) • Testing • Option 1: • Follow the approaches, test the approaches’ correctness • Compare the approaches with literatures • Option 2: • Compare the data with field data (freight cost savings/ passenger cost savings) using TAZs in Puget Sound Area • Option 3: • Survey with economic expert (is the cost reasonable?)
Products – Overall Benefits • Passenger Trips and Commercial Trips, Respectively - Comparison between built and no-built scenarios • Travel time - vehicle hours, vehicle miles • Safety - crash reduction • Induced Trips • Cost of unreliability • Accessible employment • Weighted connectivity