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The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson

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## The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson

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**The Global Consciousness ProjectWeak Signals, Strong**ImplicationsRoger Nelson**The EGG Project(aka the Global Consciousness Project)**International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: FieldREG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?**The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers,**Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history**Homepage**http://noosphere.princeton.edu Berger: Web Design Magic Buttons Status Day Sum Results Extract Primary Links Menu at Bottom**How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random**sourceEach trial is the sum of 200 bits**The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared**with Theoretical normal distribution expected**We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative**deviationsCorrelation Tilts … Variance Spreads**When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you**are all in accord, it becomes.- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950**For most of the formal predictionsWe specify a “Standard**Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi =(mi-m)/s Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (Szi)/N1/2 Composite Z is squared for c2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Zs2 –1 or c2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both**Cumulative sum of c2- its expectationMay show a trend if**there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs**Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate**with big deviations**Context explorations: Six hours of dataAround the beginning**of bombing in KosovoCumulative deviation of Zs2 or c2**The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east:An occasion**of hope for resolution of differences**Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of**interest to the EGG**We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with**astrologically determined “hot” times**An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation**across all (24) time zonesCumulative excess deviation of means Model Prediction Weak Replication**A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores**Sum of zi2-1across eggs is c2 with N df Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction**Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an**independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT**Y2K New Years 1999-2000: Prototype AnalysisCumdev of**smoothed variance across eggs**New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over**37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed**New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over**37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window**Repeating events teach us how much we Have to learn, 2001**, 2000 , 1999 **Inspired by the result in 2001 We examine the previous**year’s data**And the year before that … from which we Learn once again**how much we don’t know**The destruction of a world treasureApproximate time, noon in**Afghanistan**The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001 A**50-hour trend followed the attacks**Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real**data, Green is Pseudorandom**More context: Variance trends Sept 10-12Does the evidence**indicate precursor Information -- 4 hours, maybe more?**Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept**11The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG network Pseudorandom clone data**Shoup: examining a larger contextComparing Sept 11 vs four**months of days**Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11Structure where there**should be none**Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11**Measure Probability estimate Comparison standard Composite deviation 0.003 Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation 0.0001 Student t: 400 days Device variance peak 0.001 Permutation: control p = 0.756 Autocorrelation 0.0003 60 control days: p > 0.05 News correlation 0.002 Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0.30 Time series: 365 days**Bottom line: the full formal database113 global events over**4 years**What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it?**Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done**Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?**Refine operation and dissemination Ask good questions, smart and useful Learn whether consciousness “works” Support quest for theoretical picture Teach people about creative mind Convince leaders we are one Contribute to better future for culture**We think the world apart. What would it be like to think**the world together?-- Parker Palmer, educator http://noosphere.princeton.edu