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Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013

Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013. World GDP growth ( IMF). (% y/y ). 4.6% Oct‘12. 3.6% Oct‘12. GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies. % q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages). Emerging markets. Advanced economies. United States GDP performance.

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Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013

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  1. Economic Update • Kevin Lings • Economist • November 2013

  2. World GDP growth (IMF) (%y/y) 4.6% Oct‘12 3.6% Oct‘12

  3. GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies % q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages) Emerging markets Advanced economies

  4. United States GDP performance Index, Q1 2006 = 100 US

  5. US leading indicator %y/y

  6. US statutory limit on Federal Debt US$ trillion US debt ceiling US government debt

  7. US Federal Reserve Total Assets $ billion QE 3 QE 2 QE 1

  8. Euro-area leading indicator %y/y

  9. Euro-area: economic sentiment indicator Index, 100 = average Core of Euro-area Periphery of Euro-area

  10. Euro-area GDP index (real) vs US real GDP index Index Q1 2006 = 100 USA GDP Euro-area GDP

  11. Youth unemployment rate in Germany % unemployed

  12. Youth unemployment rate in Greece % unemployed

  13. Developed vs Emerging market inflation rate % Emerging markets Developed markets

  14. US consumer inflation %

  15. Consumer inflation in the Euro-area % Euro-area

  16. Japan consumer inflation rate %y/y 2% target set in Jan 2013 Headline inflation Core inflation

  17. Euro-area, US, Japan and UK official interest rates % UK US Euro-area Japan

  18. China real GDP growth %, y/y, real terms

  19. China rebalancing needed % of total China GDP Fixed investment activity Consumer activity

  20. Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth %y/y

  21. Sub-Saharan Africa fastest growing economiesPast 10 years %y/y, real GDP growth, average over 10 years

  22. Sub-Saharan Africa Government Debt as % of GDP % of GDP

  23. Sub-Saharan Africa net foreign direct investment $ billion

  24. South Africa’s international perception

  25. SA consumer disposable income %, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real

  26. SA consumer spending vs disposable income %, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real Consumer spending Consumer income

  27. SA manufacturing activity vs retail activity Index SA economic recovery has been consumption based, rather than production based SA retail activity SA manufacturing activity

  28. SA manufacturing production as % of GDP % of total

  29. SA trade balance – 12 month moving average Rbn

  30. SA growth in consumer unsecured credit % over past three months. Personal loans

  31. SA consumer confidence (BER) Index

  32. SA formal sector employment Million Still 75 000 formal sector jobs below the peak

  33. SA mining employment Thousands

  34. Growth in fixed investment spending %q/q, annualised

  35. OECD leading indicator vs SA leading indicator %y/y %y/y OECD leading indicator (lhs) SA leading indicator (rhs)

  36. SA exports to Africa R billion, 6-month moving average SA exports more to Africa than to North and South America combined

  37. SA travel receipts R Billions World Soccer Cup 2010

  38. SA net travel account R Billions

  39. Building plans passed – residential sector Rbn, constant prices, 12-month moving average

  40. SA headline CPI forecast % y/y

  41. SA Interest Rate Forecast % Prime rate Repo rate

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