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Measure I Strategic Plan Update
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  1. Measure I Strategic Plan Update San Bernardino Associated Governments Major Projects Committee, March 13, 2008

  2. Presentation Objectives • Review of Strategic Plan progress • Status of Valley programs • Freeway • Metrolink/Rail • Express Bus/BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) • Freeway Interchange • Major Streets • Others (traffic mgmt., senior transit) addressed in later meetings • Preliminary draft cash-flow analysis for Valley programs • Schedule for completion of Strategic Plan

  3. What is the Strategic Plan? • A transportation strategy for implementing Measure I 2010-2040 that: • Is consistent with the overarching Strategic Plan principles endorsed by the Board • Is financially feasible (for Valley this means: matches total cost and revenue by program and maintains positive cash flow) • Maintains the integrity of individual Measure I programs • Includes a policy and procedural framework for allocation and administration of Measure I, state, federal and development-based revenues

  4. Strategic Plan Progress - Valley • Update of project costs and revenues – Aug 2006 • Project advancement program – April 2006 • Strategic Plan principles – Jan 2007 • 5-Year needs survey authorized – Sept 2007 • Nexus Study update – Nov 2007 • Cost and revenue data assembled – Dec 2007 to Feb 2008

  5. Strategic Plan Progress - Valley • MPC selected to review Valley Programs – Oct 2007 • Valley Interchange Program conceptual framework OK’d for further development – Feb 2008 • Valley Major Street Program framework being considered at MPC – March 2008 • Revenue reviewed Feb 2008 – Estimate down to $7.25 B from $8.0 B • Construction cost index down 15% in 2007

  6. Valley Programs – Measure I Percentages • Freeway Projects (29%) • Freeway Interchange Projects (11%) • Major Street Projects (20%)* • Local Street Projects (20%) • Metrolink/Rail Service (8%) • Express Bus/Bus Rapid Transit Service (2%)* • Senior and Disabled Transit Service (8%) • Traffic Management Systems (2%) *BRT increases to 5-10% after 10 years, and Major Streets reduced by like amount

  7. Freeway Program - Projects • I-10 HOV – Haven to Co. Line • Project development in progress, Haven to Ford • I-15 – Riverside Co. Line to I-215 • Project development in progress for Devore I/C (Cajon Prog) • I-215 – Riv. Co. Line to I-10 • Project development delayed but restarted • I-215 – SR-210 to I-15 – No activity • SR-210 – I-215 to I-10 • Caltrans preparing Project Study Report • HOV connectors – No activity

  8. Freeway Program – Construction Start Dates (earliest likely) and Costs in Cash-Flow Analysis ($2007) • I-10 HOV – Haven to Ford – 2014, $800 million • I-10 HOV - Ford to Co. Line - 2014, $420 million • I-15/I-215 (Devore) Interchange – 2013, $200 million (Cajon program) • I-15 – Riv. Co. Line to I-215 – 2026, $490 million • I-215 – Riv. Co. Line to I-10 – 2015, $680 million • I-215 – SR-210 to I-15 – 2031, $170 million • SR-210 – I-215 to I-10 – 2012, $380 million • HOV connectors – 2015, $90 million MI allocated • $3 billion total cost • $1.6 billion MI revenue • $1.2 billion in state/federal revenue estimated for Valley

  9. Metrolink/Rail Program • Includes Gold Line, Redlands Extension, Metrolink operations and capital improvements • Metro Gold Line • Asuza to Montclair in 2nd phase • Estimated cost share for SB County - $95 million • Construction could start in 2016 • Montclair to Ontario Airport possible third phase, post 2030 - not in Measure • Redlands Extension • Jan. 2008 – Contract awarded for RSTIS(Regionally Signif. Trans. Invest. Study) • Estimated cost - $190 million • Construction could start in 2012 • Metrolink - ongoing capital and operations requirements • $800+ million total need • $123 million FTA New Starts/Small Starts in capital investment plan • $157 million peak borrowing need ($2007 dollars)

  10. Express Bus/BRT Program • Measure I revenue • 2% for first 10 years • Minimum 5% to maximum 10% after 10 years, at Board discretion • Connection between BRT and arterial program • Revenue estimated at $240 M in $2007 if at 5% level after 10 years • E Street BRT project • RSTIS completed in 2007 • Preliminary engineering/environmental contract to be let in Spring 2008 • Estimated capital cost - $164 M • Candidate for FTA Small Starts funding • Also creates borrowing need, undetermined amount • Five other candidate BRT corridors

  11. Freeway Interchange Program • 38 Interchanges in Valley • Total estimated cost of $1.24 billion ($2007) • Development revenue $410 million • Measure I estimate $600 million • Interchanges under construction in next 5 years • Baseline/I-15 • Cedar/I-10 • Cherry/I-10 • Citrus/I-10 • Duncan Canyon/I-15 - Project Advancement • Live Oak/I-10 – Project Advancement • Palm/I-215 – Interim improvement • Pepper/I-10 • Riverside/I-10 - Project Advancement • Tippecanoe/I-10 • University/I-215 – Interim improvement

  12. Valley Major Street Program Approx. 400 Projects in Valley Includes 17 new rail/highway grade separations Total Major Streets Cost: $1.64 billion arterials $440 million grade separations Total minimum development fair share = $700 million Public share = $1.4 billion Public share need by 2013, based on jurisdiction surveys =$250+million Measure I allocation by 2013 = approx. $50 million Projected Measure I Major Streets revenue = approx. $1 billion Substantial state/federal assistance expected for grade separations

  13. Cajon Pass Program Estimated $220 million in Measure I revenue Major projects: Devore interchange ($200 million estimated cost) I-15 widening and improvement ($200+ M in revenue assigned) Could affect distribution of federal/state dollars to Valley and Victor Valley I-15 Corridor Study – possible reversible toll lanes on I-15 from SR-210 to US-395 (could be $1 billion) Following progress on RCTC I-15 HOT lanes project

  14. Cash-Flow Analysis for Valley Purpose: • Identify relationship between total revenue and cost • Identify annual revenue/cost relationship by program and jurisdiction

  15. Cash-Flow Analysis for Valley – Basis • Cost • Freeways – updated 2006 analysis approved by Board • Interchanges and Major Streets – 2007 update of Nexus Study, plus five-year needs survey responses by local jurisdictions • Metrolink/Rail – Analysis by rail programs consultant • BRT – Latest cost from Omnitrans for E Street BRT • Revenue • Latest update from Dr. Husing - $7.25 billion total • Development-based estimates from 2007 update of Nexus Study • Re-analysis of state/federal revenue • Schedules • Freeways – Latest updates from Fluor • Interchanges and Major Streets – Five-year needs survey responses • Metrolink/Rail – Analysis by rail programs consultant

  16. Cash-Flow Analysis for Valley – Progress • Developed spreadsheet tool – analysis by: • Program • Jurisdiction • Total • Requested and received 5-year needs survey responses between October and December 2007 • Input project cost by phase • Input project start and end years by phase • Uses escalated dollars, both revenue and expenditure • 5.3% annual escalation of cost • 3.8% annual escalation of revenue • Focus is on Measure I revenue vs. Measure I “need”

  17. Cash-Flow Analysis for Valley – Context/Caveats • Raw input – no attempt yet to map out a realistic financial strategy • Next steps will develop financial alternatives such as: • Adjust assignment of state/federal dollars • Address revenue shortfalls • Cost reduction strategies • Revenue increasing strategies • Pay-as-you-go • Maximize bond financing to facilitate project delivery • Hybrid alternatives • Other “what-ifs” • End result will be a feasible financial strategy – will require several months to work through issues

  18. Project Advancement Program • 19 agreements in place in Valley, $98 million MI commitment • Cash flow analysis assigned 40% of program revenues to payback • Interchange program requires 5 years of payback • Major streets program requires 6 years • Options for payback to be examined in April

  19. Strategic Plan Schedule Draft in Fall 2008 Need approval by April 2009 Tracking systems need to be in place well before new revenue flows

  20. Next Steps for Valley Measure I revenue update – PPC March Additional detail on interchange program – MPC April Initial financial alternatives – MPC April User-based revenue opportunities Adjustments to state/federal revenue Alternatives to maintain positive cash flow, e.g. Pay-as-you-go Maximize bond financing Hybrid alternatives