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Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety . Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010. Transportation is the collision of demography with geography . DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY.

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future view of transportation implications for safety

Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety

Alan E. Pisarski

Stakeholder Workshop

August 25-26, 2010

slide2
Transportation is the collision of

demography with geography

DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

slide3
DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

slide4
DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

ECONOMY

TECHNOLOGY

Leavened by technology and the economy

a quick look at
A Quick Look at:
  • Demography is Destiny
  • Licensing and Vehicle Ownership
  • Travel Behavior and Activity
  • Truck Freight
  • Implications for Safety
demography
Demography

The Pre-labor Force Age Group

Labor Force Age Group

Post Labor Force Age Group

OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

the old watch out school of planning doesn t apply any more
The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More
  • Watch Out! Here They Come!
  • There will be no Deluge of:
    • Young Population
    • New Cars
    • New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers)
    • Vmt
  • But – Maybe of:
    • Immigrant Drivers and
    • Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive
  • In Many Ways More Operable
only small increases in potential new driver population
Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population
  • Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050.
  • About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.
end of the worker boom
End of the Worker Boom
  • 1980-90: 18.5 Million
  • 1990-2000: 13.3 Million
  • 2000-2010: NEGATIVE
  • Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!
a possible 11 to 13 million workers over 65 by 2030
A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers over 65 by 2030

*Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

the tools of travel
The Tools of Travel

Licenses

  • Saturation in all ages
  • Women’s gains
  • Immigrants

Vehicles

  • Stability
  • Aging fleet
  • Workers = Drivers

IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?

cars per household 48 year trend
Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend

Households in thousands

Alan E. Pisarski

household workers and vehicles
Household Workers and Vehicles
  • In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles
  • In two worker hh 87% have two or more
  • In three + worker hh 74% have three or more
stable vehicle ownership shares into the future
Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future

Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

consumer spending on vehicles declining since 2003 2005
Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005

Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

travel
Travel
  • Fewer Trips
  • Trip lengths stable
  • Travel times stable
  • VMT slow growth
  • But, long distance travel boomlet?

Is it the Economy or the Trend?

slide26
As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme
immigrant work mode trend
Immigrant Work Mode Trend

A NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?

the economy and travel
THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL
  • Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)
  • Less focus on new vehicles
  • Fuels impacts on costs
  • Fewer workers = less travel spending?
  • But, a boom in tourism?

IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?

major transportation related trends
Major Transportation-Related Trends

Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

travel grows with income annual trips per hh by income level doesn t have to mean more crashes
Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income LevelDoesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes

Future

how do we spend our transportation money
How do we spend our transportation money?
  • Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles
  • Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi
  • Un-reimbursed

Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

transportation spending is all about workers
Transportation Spending is All about Workers

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

density and distribution
Density and Distribution
  • Pace of change has slowed
  • Suburban growth pattern continues
  • Large metro growth is the key but …

Is it the Economy or the Trend?

suburban growth continues but economy has slowed moves
Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves
  • 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006
  • The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948)
  • In met areas over a million pop suburban share:
    • was 51.3% in 2000
    • now at 52.5% in 2008;
    • gained 66% of the growth to 2008

Census DomesticMobility Study

the focus will be on big metros
The Focus will be on Big Metros
  • Metros over a million
    • 1960 34 areas
    • 1990 39 areas
    • 2000 50 areas
    • 2005 53 areas
    • Probably 60 areas by 2020
    • 60% of population
  • 12 areas with more than 5 meg.
  • 1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.
  • Growth is in exurb areas
freight
Freight
  • Increasing tons, vehicles and value
  • Increasing truck shares
  • Prospect of larger vehicles
  • More hazardous materials
  • Non-driver fatalities
truck freight s role is massive
Truck Freight’s Role is Massive

Freight facts and figures, 2008

share of vmt by road system
Share of VMT by Road System

Freight Story 2008

the hazardous materials role as well
The Hazardous Materials Role as well

Freight Facts and Figures 2008

we will see new sometimes dramatic patterns
We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns

A replacement labor force of ? size & skills

A rapidly increasing dependent older pop

A pop heavily defined by immigration policy

Changes in energy & environment costs

Other intervening new technologies

All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.

major safety implications
Major Safety Implications

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

More post-work age workers

Slow fleet turn-over

Immigrant conflicts

Higher percentage of travel by older pop

More trucks, hazmat

  • Fewer young drivers
  • Stable vehicle & license growth
  • Younger working age group
  • Slower VMT growth – driven by pop & income
in summary
In Summary
  • To me the central demographic questions for traffic safety of our generation are:
    • Will the post work-years group be forced to stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?
    • To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?
    • Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?
thank you

Thank You!

Alan E. Pisarski

with Special Thanks to

Forrest Council

and Hugh McGee

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc

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