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Omaha Districts Inflow Forecast Regression Analysis. Carrie Vuyovich and Steven Daly ERDC-CRREL Cold Regions Res. and Engr. Lab. (CRREL) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers January 2011. Overview. Background Multiple linear regression analysis to forecast spring inflows to reservoirs

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omaha districts inflow forecast regression analysis

Omaha Districts Inflow Forecast Regression Analysis

Carrie Vuyovich and Steven DalyERDC-CRREL

Cold Regions Res. and Engr. Lab. (CRREL)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

January 2011

overview
Overview

Background

  • Multiple linear regression analysis to forecast spring inflows to reservoirs
  • 6 snow-dominated watersheds
  • Monthly forecasts beginning in January

Goals

  • Update regressions with recent data, improve accuracy
  • Develop better estimate of SWE
  • Work towards a more automated process
  • Identify possible climate trends
parameters
Parameters
  • Q (106 ac-ft) = Forecasted total volume inflow to reservoir (+ Holdouts)
  • SWE (in) = Average station SWE on first of month
  • ANTQ (106 ac-ft) = Total antecedent inflow from Oct – Nov of previous year (+ Holdouts)
  • ANTPREC (in) = Total annual precipitation in previous year
  • P (in) = Total precipitation since beginning of year

Holdout Calculation:

canyon ferry
Canyon Ferry

Area = 15,886 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 1.9 M ac-ft (2 M ac-ft Natural)

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.56 M ac-ft (0.56 M ac-ft Natural)

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

clark canyon
Clark Canyon

Area = 2,315 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 0.08 M ac-ft (0.09 M ac-ft Natural)

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.04 M ac-ft (0.05 M ac-ft Natural)

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

tiber
Tiber

Area = 4,724 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 0.43 M ac-ft

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.04 M ac-ft

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

yellowtail
Yellowtail

Area = 19,693 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 1.0 M ac-ft (1.4 M ac-ft Natural)

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.30 M ac-ft (0.32 M ac-ft Natural)

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

boysen
Boysen

Area = 7,750 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 0.56 M ac-ft (0.6 M ac-ft Natural)

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.11 M ac-ft (0.11 M ac-ft Natural)

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

glendo
Glendo

Area = 15,562 mi2

Average Apr-Jul total volume inflow = 0.60 M ac-ft (0.88 M ac-ft Natural)

0.14 M ac-ft below Alcova

Average Oct-Nov total volume inflow = 0.13 M ac-ft (0.09 M ac-ft Natural)

0.03 M ac-ft below Alcova

Average monthly total precipitation (in)

slide18

Percent Error

*2011 Yellowtail forecast of Actual reservoir inflow for Apr – Jul (USACE and BoR)

USACE Forecast for May-Jul, includes holdouts from Boysen, Buffalo Bill and Bull Lake

slide20

Automation

  • Goals:
  • Link regression equations, data and statistics to final forecast sheet
  • Links to data sources (semi-automated)
  • Limit data entry and calculation errors
  • Easily transfer regression coefficients each year
  • Easily transfer annual data to regression analysis workbook
2011 issues
2011 Issues
  • Late snowfall in April
    • Switched from 1 Apr SWE to Max(1 Apr, 1 May)
  • Real-time precipitation data
    • Difficult to automate
  • Canyon Ferry results
    • Not capturing complete water balance by the end of the season
proposed improvements to inflow forecasting
Proposed Improvements to Inflow Forecasting
  • Daily estimates of forecasted inflow for monitoring
    • Need to automate regression analysis and data stream
  • Climate change impacts to regression analysis
    • Temperature appears to be increasing, Precipitation neither increasing or decreasing
    • Changes in climate will reduce the accuracy of regressions over time
    • Limit data used in analysis to recent years rather than entire period of record
proposed improvements to inflow forecasting1
Proposed Improvements to Inflow Forecasting
  • Further investigation of better SWE estimation
    • Test in different basins
    • Field measurements to better understand distribution of snow

Canyon Ferry

proposed improvements to inflow forecasting2
Proposed Improvements to Inflow Forecasting
  • Passive Microwave Satellite Observations of SWE in the Great Plains
    • Algorithms developed in Great Plains region of Canada.
    • Shown promising results in Red River of the North Basins
    • Independent estimate of SWE, available real-time
    • Long period of record (1987 – present)
    • Evaluate by comparison to NOHRSC, ground and flight observations, hydrologic analysis
proposed improvements to inflow forecasting3
Proposed Improvements to Inflow Forecasting
  • Passive Microwave detection of snowmelt and runoff
    • Affected by presence of wet snow
    • Research into detection of “ripe” snow and rain-on-snow events
    • May provide information on timing of melt and flood forecasting
  • Hydrologic Analysis of Plains snowpack
    • Correlation between timing and volume to SWE in Plains to discharge
    • Terrain-state modeling
    • Statistical analysis/rank-order