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School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy

School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy. Alison Wolf King ’ s College London. The Modern Economy. Free Trade Free Movement in some regions (notably most of the EU), though heavy restrictions in global context Non-directed labour Minimal industrial policy

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School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy

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  1. School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy Alison Wolf King’s College London

  2. The Modern Economy • Free Trade • Free Movement in some regions (notably most of the EU), though heavy restrictions in global context • Non-directed labour • Minimal industrial policy • Shift, in developed world, from fast growth in class 1 and 2 occupations to slow growth/steady state • Decline in skilled manual trades – move to the hourglass economy

  3. The modern education system • Increased average length: completion of upper secondary normal in all developed countries • Rapid rise in higher education numbers • Delayed specialisation • High returns to formal qualifications, absolutely and relatively • Wide variations in nature and status of apprenticeship. Full-time ‘vocational’ pathways generally common and rarely high-status pre-18

  4. University enrolments at either end of the twentieth century

  5. Modern labour markets • European countries and Japan marked by dual labour markets: core of full-time jobs with security and high benefits and periphery of low-security, low-paid, short-term jobs • North America: more fluid labour market, much less job security, high levels of churn, greater movement in numbers of jobs year on year

  6. The specific case of the UK • Very low apprenticeship numbers for under-18s: apprenticeship almost destroyed in 1980s, very partial return to health in 2000s • Very high levels of regional inequality • General stability in upper secondary academic route and constant reform of upper secondary vocational route • Open access for EU accession state nationals as well as longer-standing EU members

  7. Employers’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 1950 Graduates Low ability High ability

  8. Employers’ view of where the formally qualified are to be found: 2000 Graduates Low ability High ability

  9. Employers’ perceptions of the labour market: 2050? Graduates Low quality High quality

  10. Overall figures conceal huge variations Between and within regions and counties or cities

  11. August 2012:16-24 years: % claiming

  12. % 16-24 claiming: London area 8.12

  13. Returns to vocational awards • Poor to specific occupational awards obtained in fulltime training/education • Middling to ‘quasi-vocational’ (eg BTEC) • Good to ‘proper’ apprenticeships: - reflects return to work experience, demonstrated persistence as much as to specific skills – • Change in trade/occupation the rule rather than the exception

  14. The challenge • Improve apprenticeships • Increase value of FT-based vocational • Recognise reality of modern labour market – need to retrain/move between sectors • Address disappearance of youth labour market – can decline be reversed?

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