1 / 20

A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective

This article explores the different factors involved in analyzing energy scenarios from an industrial perspective, including future states of the world, public policies, and the use of models. It also discusses the challenges and unresolved issues in this field.

robertas
Download Presentation

A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective Renaud Crassous, EdF Ecole de Physique des Houches 02/03/2014

  2. What do we need? 1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.)

  3. What do we need? 1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.) 2. A robust assessment of public policies, to build optimal strategies and to build a sound dialog with other stakeholders

  4. Several available methods… • Narratives – anything that help us to « think out of the box - e.g. Shell storylines (Moutains / Oceans) • External Quantitative pathways – SRES, World Energy Outlook, RCPs • Consultants (Oxford economics, CERA, Enerdata, research centers, etc.) • Models to play with at home • ‘Back of the envelope’ / ‘rule of thumb’

  5. …overwhelming data…

  6. ... and puzzling uncertainties?

  7. A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (1/3) • Three levels of information: (i) Storyline: Explicit/Implicit motivation of the scenario builder(s) • Energy demand : behavioral change? new acceleration of efficiency gains ? And/or further decline of industry? • Energy Supply: A new wave of technical revolution that allow to fulfill growing needs on the long-run(backstop technologies) in spite of finite fossil resources. • Electricity: what role in the future energy mix?

  8. A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (2/3) (ii) Concrete indicators of feasibility/likelyhood Quantitative data for the reader to build his own assessment of the likelyhood of the trajectory • Lifestyles (per capita travel time, housing surface, • Resources (e.g. surface of energy crops/ industrial biomass for energy) • Total costs, investment needs, energy prices

  9. A ‘reader’s guide’for external scenarios (3/3) (iii) Policies / Conditions of success What are the stumbling blocks? What changes and what policies are needed? • Price signals • Innovation strategies • Redistribution, transfers • Skills, human capital

  10. Deep inside: what model? • Advantages of using a model: • Complex calculation (simulation or optimization) • Consistency (between prices and quantities, behaviors/technologies, energy/macro) • Drawbacks: • Huge efforts do not guarantee sound results • Black box => low confidence and strategic use

  11. Models

  12. Two frequent Flaws • Data: too often neglected • Ready-to-use database (e.g. GTAP for GE models) • Double check : ‘Check-in’ / ‘Check-out’ • Model: misuses ‘out of the definition domain’ • e.g. Macroeconometric models = short-run only

  13. An illustration of the necessary check-out of model results: future energy demand in France

  14. ‘Marker Scenarios’ from the national debate (DNTE)

  15. A look behind: sustained efficiency gains in the OECD during the last 40 years

  16. Past efficiency gains in buildings

  17. For the last 10 years: an apparent stability that hides opposite dynamics

  18. Further efficiency gains: Continuity or disruption?

  19. Power demand: a broadinterval of scenarios thatis not ‘pure unertainty’ Low scenario: behavioral change, 100% technicalpotential, strong substitution towardbiomass= negativeGDP elasticity Median scenario: close to a « business-as-usual», withcurrent trends going on (decreasingindustrialactivity, decrease use of electricity in heating, few innovation in new uses) = elasticity tends to 0,2 - 0,4 High scenario: where CO2 reductioncomes more from substitutions to low CO2 electricity uses, alongwithambitious EE gains= elasticityremainsarounditspre-crisislevel, around 0,8  RTE

  20. Unsolved issues/ Further needs - Technical change with ‘realistic’ learningcurves (asymptotic) - Inequalities, redistributiveeffects of energypolicies - Intermittency - New electric uses in buildings - Debtconstraints and investment - macroeconomic impact of energyprices - Global treatment of uncertainties

More Related