AHPS Program Plan

1. AHPS Program Plan FY07 Update

2. AHPS Program Plan Document Purpose • Provide an overview of AHPS and serve as a guide for the AHPS program • Defines in total the science development and service implementation activities that constitute AHPS as they are currently known • Serves as a reference for the AHPS theme team annual task and budget priority process Other references include: • AGM • AHPS Program Management Plan (in progress) • HOSIP documents • project advocates

3. AHPS Program Plan Document Structure • Introduction • Flash Flood Forecast Services • Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Deterministic Forecasting • Lumped Model Forecasting • Distributed Model Forecasting • Probabilistic Forecasting • Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services • Logistical Verification • Outreach • Web Page Deployment

4. AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Operational Concept, Current Capabilities, and Requirements Sections • Introduction • Flash Flood Forecast Services • Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Deterministic Forecasting • Lumped Model Forecasting • Distributed Model Forecasting • Probabilistic Forecasting • Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical DisseminationServices • Logistical Verification • Outreach • Web Page Deployment

5. AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Architecture; product generation and graphical dissemination; archive; and verification sections • Introduction • Flash Flood Forecast Services • Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Deterministic Forecasting • Lumped Model Forecasting • Distributed Model Forecasting • Probabilistic Forecasting • Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services • LogisticalVerification • Outreach • Web Page Deployment

6. AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Training Requirements Sections • Introduction • Flash Flood Forecast Services • Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Deterministic Forecasting • Lumped Model Forecasting • Distributed Model Forecasting • Probabilistic Forecasting • Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical DisseminationServices • Logistical Verification • Outreach • Web Page Deployment

7. AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Five components of a requirement for successful completion • Develop methods and procedures to meet the requirement • Prototype and validate the developed methods and procedures in an operational environment • Implement the methods and procedures into operations through standard AWIPS delivery mechanisms • Document the operational methods and procedures • Train the users on the new operational methods and procedures

8. AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes • Removed references of Basic, Full, and Partnered Services • Services now defined as: • Flash Flood Forecasting Services • Short- to Long-term Forecasting Services • Deterministic Forecasting Services • Lumped Model Forecasting • Distributed Model Forecasting • Probabilistic Forecasting Services • Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services

9. AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes • Added the requirements of all projects currently in HOSIP/OSIP • Added the requirements of all projects considered by the AHPS FY06 Theme Teams

10. AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes • Enhanced the Flash Flood Forecasting Services operational concept • Enhanced FFMP • Precipitation enhancements • Super high resolution radar • Rectilinear Gridded multi-sensor precip estimates (NMQ and EMPE) • Forecaster ability to choose precipitation estimate and forecast input • Guidance enhancements • Ability to monitor multiple guidance (debris flow) • Flash Flood Potential Index • Statistical Distributed Models • Fully Distributed Models • Enhancements to Site Specific • Ingest EMPE, Provide tools to calibrate for 1-hour time step, VAR, Snow Modeling, Routing

11. AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes • Updated the status of all projects in the status spreadsheets