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Chapter 2:. The Real Estate System. The Real Estate System. 1. The development industry 2. Overview of the R.E. “system” 3. The “4-Quadrant” model (4QM) 4. Using the 4QM to understand “boom & bust” cycles in R.E. Financial Resources. New Built Space. Development Industry. Physical

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    1. Chapter 2: The Real Estate System

    2. The Real Estate System 1. The development industry 2. Overview of the R.E. “system” 3. The “4-Quadrant” model (4QM) 4. Using the 4QM to understand “boom & bust” cycles in R.E.

    3. Financial Resources New Built Space Development Industry Physical Resources 2.1 The Commercial Property Development Industry

    4. The Development Industry Development is a creative, entrepreneurial process characterized by… Vision Greed Cooperation Risk (All the most entertaining features of American capitalism.)

    5. Development (cont.)… • Cooperation:·Between public & private sectors;·Between developers & financiers. • Risk:·Even an economy in recession needs an existing stock of built space.·New space (need for development) results only from economicgrowth &/or change.

    6. Development (cont.)… R.E. Development is therefore dealing with the dynamic “cutting edge” of the physical built environment.This makes development the most cyclical branch of the real estate industry…

    7. Exhibit 2- 1 US commercial property construction starts by property type as percent of existing stock…

    8. 2.2 The Real Estate System

    9. = Causal flows. = Information gathering & use. Exhibit 2-2: The “Real Estate System”: Interaction of the Space Market, Asset Market, & Development Industry

    10. “Negative feedback loops”… Mechanisms within a system that tend to dampen the changes in the system, helping to keep it in control, preventing it from spiraling out of control.

    11. Example: A thermostat puts a negative feedback loop into a heating and cooling (HVAC) system in a building.·When the temperature in the building gets too low, the thermostat triggers the heater.·When the temperature in the building gets too high, the thermostat triggers the air conditioning. The result is that the building temperature remains “under control”, within a comfortable temperature range.

    12. Concept check: How do the development industry and the real estate asset market work together to provide a (long-run) negative feedback loop in the Real Estate System?…How can “forward-looking”behavior (good forecasting of the space market) in the development industry and R.E. asset market (capital market) improve this negative feedback loop?…

    13. 2.3 The “4-Quadrant Model” (4QM)…

    14. D Rent $ Exhibit 2-3: The DiPasquale-Wheaton 4-Quadrant Diagram… Space Market: Rent Determination Asset Market: Valuation D R* Price $ Q* Stock (SF) P* C* Asset Market: Construction Space Market: Stock Adjustment Construction (SF)

    15. 2.4 Using the 4QM to help understand “boom & bust” cycles…

    16. Exhibit 2-4a: Effect of Demand Growth in Space Market Rent $ Space Market: Rent Determination Asset Market: Valuation D1 D0 R1 R** R* P** P1 P* Price $ Q* Stock (SF) C* Asset Market: Construction C** Space Market: Stock Adjustment Construction (SF)

    17. Rent $ Exhibit 2-4b: Effect of Demand Growth in Asset Market... Space Market: Rent Determination Asset Market: Valuation D0 11% OAR D1 R* 8% OAR R** SR LR P1 Q** P* Q* Price $ P** Stock (SF) C* Asset Market: Construction Space Market: Stock Adjustment C** Construction (SF)

    18. Concept check… 1. What does the 4Q Model reveal about the interaction of the space market, the asset market, and the development industry in causing “boom & bust” cycles? 2. How can the an understanding of the 4Q Model help participants in the asset market and development industry to avoid “boom & bust” cycles? [Hint: Can the 4Q Model help with “forward-looking” decision-making?…]