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DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP

CEEEZ. Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia Limited. DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP. Mulungushi International Conference Centre 9 th September 2005. ZAMBIAN EXPERIENCE ON METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: CDM PERSPECTIVES.

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DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP

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  1. CEEEZ Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia Limited DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY IN AFRICA (DEA) WORKSHOP Mulungushi International Conference Centre 9th September 2005 ZAMBIAN EXPERIENCE ON METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: CDM PERSPECTIVES Prof. F. D. Yamba and E. Matsika CEEEZ Private Bag E721, Lusaka, ZAMBIA Tel/Fax: +260 - 1 - 240267 Email: ceeez@coppernet.zm /yamba@eng.unza.zm ematsika@yahoo.com

  2. BACKGROUND (1) • In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol and Convention, “the purpose of the CDM shall be to assist parties not included in the Annex I (developing countries) in achieving sustainable development” • It is therefore an explicit requirement that CDM projects should contribute to the achievement of SD in the host country • Project participants must demonstrate that the CDM project assist in achieving SD and also that it meets the sustainability requirements of the host country

  3. BACKGROUND (2) • “It is the host party’s prerogative to confirm whether a CDM project activity achieves SD” • In this context, the host country (Zambia) has clear sovereignty and responsibility to evaluate the project and decides whether it complies with its SD targets and priorities

  4. BACKGROUND (3) • Question: How are projects assessed to meet SD criteria? • This requires evaluation/approval of CDM projects by the host country

  5. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (1) • How possible is it to evaluate an isolated project and to decide whether such a project is sustainable or not? • Various methods exist: qualitative and quantitative

  6. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (2) • What is ranking (in this context)? • A systematic tool that allows the qualitative comparison of very different and interrelated policy priorities and preferences • For sustainable development, ranking is useful for assisting policy makers come to a uniform decision on what should be prioritised.

  7. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (3) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA): a tool developed for complex multi-criteria problems that include qualitative and quantitative aspects. All these methods involve two stages: first, goals and objectives are clarified, and second, weights are attached to different objectives. The following MCA methods can be used:

  8. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (4) • Preferential Ranking: simplest and does not require scoring as such, but indicators with + or – sign to indicate a range

  9. 1 3 5 7 9 Weakly important Less Important Moderately Important More Important Extremely Important ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (5) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d: • Normal ranking:closely related to preferential ranking, except here, the range is indicated with numbers rather than + or –

  10. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (6) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d: • Ordinal ranking: technique where each expert is asked to put the list of decision elements in order of importance or hierarchy of importance

  11. Indicators Score Modification formulae Rating % Indicator 1 30 30(110/100) 27 Indicator 2 35 35(110/100) 32 Indicator 3 45 45 /(1 10/100) 41 Total 110 indicator score / (total for indicators /100) 100 ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (7) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) cont’d: • Rating: requires that a decision maker allocates or indicates a score between 1 – 100 (ideally, total adds to 100)

  12. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (8) • Pairwise: simply a round of tournament technique by which every item in a list is compared to every item according to a single criterion • Decision hierarchy: combines normal ranking and pairwise ranking with simple vector mathematics, and considered at different levels of aggregation

  13. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (9) Figure: An Example of Decision Hierarchy Level 1 Sustainable Development Level 2 Economics Society Environment Reduced Debt Ratio Other indicators Gender Equality Other indicators Better air Other indicators Level 3 Qns Qns Qns Qns Qns Qns Level 4 Indicates strong impact on Qn a question on the CDM checklist (see Section 4.2.2 for more details) Indicates weak impact on

  14. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (10) Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM • Step 1: identification of sustainability criteria • Should reflect the requirements of the host country as well as preference of the decision makers involved • Presented as targets grouped in an objective tree embracing the accepted criteria of economic, environmental, social and technological aspects

  15. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (11) Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM… • Step 2: Definition of indicators • Indicators are associated to each SD criteria above • They measure to what extent a particular CDM project meets the SD criteria • Qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative • To be comparable, all indicators are calibrated with the same scale

  16. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (12) Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM… • Step 3: Weighing the criteria • According to the specific context and preferences of decision makers, the relative importance of criterion is determined • Mixture of top-down approach and participatory techniques • Step 4: Assessment of CDM project • In a review process, a project receives a rating of how it performs against those indicators based on a quantitative/qualitative assessment

  17. ASSESSMENT OF SD UNDER CDM (13) Steps for identifying SD criteria under CDM… • Step 5: Aggregation and interpretation of results • The project’s rating of all criteria are aggregated to a single number that reflects the eligibility of a project in regard to SD in the host country • Cut off mark below which projects fail to be successful: this determines how stringent a country wishes to make the requirements that CDM projects conform to SD criteria

  18. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (1) • Zambia is one of the few countries in Africa which has made good progress in developing SD criteria and indicators for CDM – through CDM – SUSAC (2000 – 2002) • Methodology developed by CEEEZ for assessing SD is presented:

  19. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (2) • The rating approach gives appropriate weighting to the 3 broadly agreed upon principles of sustainable development goals, namely economic, environmental and social. • Indicators related to each of these principles are then identified in relation to the indicators agreed upon earlier.

  20. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (3) • The ranking approach then weighs each indicator in each given category after which the total marks accrued areproportionally related to a percentage of a given category. • Based on the principle above, the assessment for this project is undertaken as follows:...

  21. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (4) A project is eligible if it scores at least 55%, the threshold

  22. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (5) Sustainable Development Indicators (1) • Economic (1) • Reducing the burden on the imports of energy and enhancing the balance of payment • Increased investment in priority sectors of the economy • Contributing to competitiveness at a micro-level, like industry • Positive effects on the balance of payment • Improved sectoral productivity, growth and linkages leading to higher contribution to GDP

  23. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (6) Sustainable Development Indicators (2) • Economic (2) • Reduction of energy intensity (energy used per unit product) at a micro level • Increasing share in the contribution of renewable energy to the energy supply mix at a macro-level • Job creation

  24. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (7) Sustainable Development Indicators (3) • Environment • Reduction of GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) aimed at enhancing global environmental integrity • Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on air • Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on water resources • Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on land • Reduction of local emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC) impacting on bio-diversity

  25. ZAMBIA’S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SD FOR CDM (8) Sustainable Development Indicators (4) • Social • Contribution to poverty reduction through local employment • Contribution to more equitable distribution of resources (reduction of wealth disparities) • Increase in percentage of rural and peri-urban population with access to energy supply • Affordability of the project product (s). • Capacity building (e.g. transfer of technical skills) • Reduction of health hazards • Contribution to access to social amenities

  26. EXAMPLE: SD ASSESSMENT Table: Sustainable Development Evaluation for the Ethanol as an Alternative Fuel in Zambia the project is eligible since the score is > 55%, the threshold

  27. CONCLUDING REMARKS (1) • Many SD indicators discussed for Zambia can apply to other developing countries • Presentation recommends a quantitative approach that combines two multi-criteria analysis methods namely rating and normal ranking methods • indicators are country-specific and depend on national circumstances

  28. CONCLUDING REMARKS (2) • indicators are dynamic and so should be reviewed in line with Government development plans and priorities • Despite being biased to CDM, the proposed methodological approach can be generically applied by developing specific sustainable development indicators

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