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Shoreline School District Trends & Projections. William L. (“Les”) Kendrick (Consultant) October 16, 2006 October Headcount Data is Used in this Report for Estimating Trends and Projections . Outline. Enrollment Trends: Shoreline and the County Demographic drivers of enrollment

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shoreline school district trends projections

Shoreline School District Trends & Projections

William L. (“Les”) Kendrick

(Consultant)

October 16, 2006

October Headcount Data is Used in this

Report for Estimating Trends and Projections

outline
Outline
  • Enrollment Trends: Shoreline and the County
  • Demographic drivers of enrollment
  • District enrollment projections
  • Projected Change by grade level and service area

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

district enrollment trend october enrollment p105 1972 1990 p223 1991 2005
District Enrollment TrendOctober EnrollmentP105: 1972-1990P223: 1991-2005

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

elementary enrollment trend shoreline district k 6
Elementary Enrollment TrendShoreline District K-6

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

middle school enrollment trend shoreline district grades 7 8
Middle School Enrollment TrendShoreline District (Grades 7-8)

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

shoreline s pattern is somewhat similar to other districts
Shoreline’s Pattern is Somewhat Similar to Other Districts
  • Demographic trends in births and migration are affecting all Districts in the county.
  • Smaller birth cohorts have led to declines in elementary enrollments
  • Net population gains from people moving in and out of the county have been smaller in recent years

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

king county public schools enrollment trend
King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

king county districts change in enrollment 1997 2003
King County Districts: Change in Enrollment1997-2003

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

king county k 12 public school enrollment growth
King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Growth

More growth in the last 2 years than in the prior 6 years.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

puget sound public school enrollment net change king kitsap pierce snohomish combined
Puget Sound Public School Enrollment Net Change: King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish Combined

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

private school enrollment king county k 12
Private School Enrollment King County K-12

Note: 2003 Private school data from OSPI excludes some schools that are traditionally included thus skewing the trend. For this reason 2003 data is omitted from the chart.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide16
King County Births, Population Gains from Migration and Shoreline EnrollmentPopulation Estimates from OFM

Births trending down

Births trending up

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

king county births percent of cohort enrolled in shoreline 5 years later
King County BirthsPercent of Cohort Enrolled in Shoreline 5 Years Later

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

projected county births and shoreline s share of the cohort
Projected County Births and Shoreline’s Share of the Cohort

Projected Births

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide19
King County PopulationChart Also Shows the Population in the Shoreline Service area as a Percent of the Total King County Population

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide20
King County Population ForecastBased on OFM IntermediateSeriesChart Also Shows the Projected Change in the Population in the Shoreline Service Area as a Percent of the Projected King County Population

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide21
Shoreline School DistrictPopulation Estimates & ProjectionsHigh Growth Population ProjectionEstimates and Projections Based on:Data from OFM, PSRC, Census & the King County Growth Report

Avg. House-hold Size = 2.53

Avg. House-hold Size = 2.51

Avg. House-hold Size = 2.42

Avg. House-hold Size = 2.37

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

new home trends in shoreline data from the new home trends database
New Home Trends in Shoreline(Data from the New Home Trends Database)
  • Approximately 650 new construction housing units have been sold in the District in the past 5-7 years.
  • About 500 of these units were in multi-family complexes (apartments, condos, townhomes)
  • Of the approximately 500 multi-family units listed as sold in New Home Trends, approximately 300 were conversions of apartments to condos or townhomes (132 were recently converted in the Echo Lake service area)
  • Development has been concentrated to the west of I-5, especially single-family home development.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

projecting the future
Projecting the Future
  • Population in the Shoreline District likely to grow between now and 2020.
  • The District population as a percentage of the county population will continue to shrink.
  • Housing units are expected to increase but the average household size will decline (generally indicates fewer children).
  • County births are expected to be relatively stable between now and 2010 and are expected to increase between 2010 and 2020.
  • Birth cohorts and the population trends are the best predictors of future enrollment.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

future enrollment
Future Enrollment
  • District will enroll a smaller share of future birth cohorts.
    • K enrollment was 3.46% of county births in 1991
    • K enrollment was 2.85% of county births in 2005
    • Percent will range between 2.8% and 2.6% between now and 2020 with a gradual decline over time.
  • Share of King County K-12 growth will decline over time
    • 4.3% in 1991
    • 3.5% to 3.7% projected by 2020
  • The Low, Medium and High forecasts differ in their assumptions regarding the District’s share of future K-12 population growth in King County.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

king county k 12 public school enrollment projection
King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Projection

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

shoreline school district enrollment projection october headcount
Shoreline School District Enrollment ProjectionOctober Headcount

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

projected change by level 2005 2010 low medium and high projection
Projected Change by Level2005-2010 (Low, Medium, and High Projection)

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

single family development projects 1998 2005 new home trends
Single Family Development Projects:1998-2005 (New Home Trends)

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide31
Shorewood/Einstein TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05PSRC Census Estimates show a net gain of approximately 800 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

slide32
Shorecrest/Kellogg TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05PSRC Census estimates show a gain of approximately 400 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

projected enrollment change by school sept 06 to oct 12 headcount
Projected Enrollment Change by School Sept_06 to Oct_12Headcount

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

summary
Summary
  • Enrollment is expected to continue to decline over the next 5-7 years.
  • Enrollment should start to grow between 2010 and 2020 as births and population increase in the county (the natural cycle of K-12 enrollment).
  • Middle and high school enrollments will show a declining pattern over the next 5-7 years.
  • Elementary enrollment should be more stable in the next 5-7 years, though losses will likely continue through 2009.

Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

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