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The HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Show Moderate Growth To 2016

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The HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Show Moderate Growth To 2016

GlobalData’s analysis suggests that the global Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) market was worth $12 billion in 2009. It is forecast to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2% for the next seven years to reach $13.7 billion by 2016. The global HIV infection market will continue to grow between 2009 and 2016 at a moderate rate due to a series of patent expiries in this period. The growth rate is likely to decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiries of key drugs. However, migration to new branded drugs is likely to minimize the impact of generics. This moderate growth will be driven by an increasing prescription rate and increased usage of newer drugs such as Atripla as part of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART).The number of people taking treatment for HIV is increasing and the average annual cost of therapy for Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) is forecast to increase at a higher rate over the next two years with an expected price decline from 2012 onwards due to a series of patent expirations. The market is characterized by a high unmet need of drugs in terms of efficacy and drugs which can cure the disease. HAART requires patients to take different classes of drugs and has succeeded in achieving near zero levels of HIV in infected people however. The increased uptake of HAART and increasing awareness will drive the market. Therefore despite challenges such as the lack of a cure and the risk of building drug resistance to current marketed drugs, the HIV market will continue to grow at a moderate rate.

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The HIV Market has Strong Competition Between Several Marketed and Combination Products

GlobalData analyzed the current competitive landscape for HIV/AIDS drugs and found the competition to be strong. There are more than 30 marketed products from different classes of therapies for the treatment of HIV. However, all these classes of drugs are relatively high on safety but moderate on efficacy.


This is because there is no cure for the infection on the market. In addition, some of the new multi-class combination drugs have improved the efficacy in terms of lowering HIV levels in the body. Therefore drugs compete on efficacy in terms of delaying the progression of the disease and combination drugs are considered far better in this regard. The drugs on the market today aim to prolong the time it takes for the HIV infection to become AIDS. This has led to an increase in the average life expectancy of people infected with HIV. Overall, the HIV/AIDS market is in need of products with better efficacy profiles and those which promise to cure the disease.

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The Unmet Need of a Cost Effective Cure is Unlikely to be Fulfilled in the Coming Years

GlobalData has found that the global HIV/AIDS market is a highly lucrative market with high levels of unmet need in terms of drug efficacy and curing the disease. The HIV market consists of a large number of drugs that are approved for HIV but none that can cure the disease. All these drugs need long term usage and the length of the therapy can last approximately 20 years. The HIV drugs on the market are considered safe as the side effects associated with HIV drugs are minimal when compared with the effects of the untreated progression of the disease itself. The disease can be fatal and is associated with many opportunistic infections which decrease the quality of life of the infected person. Therefore, while the unmet need for the HIV market will remain, some newer drugs may offer better treatment for drug-resistance HIV or have better efficacy in terms of lower dosage frequencies to improve patient compliance and improve treatment quality in the coming years.


GlobalData’s report, “HIV/AIDS - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2016”, provides the key data, information and analysis on the HIV/AIDS market. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the annualized market data from 2001 to 2009, and forecast seven years to 2016. The research also includes market characterization, opportunities, the unmet needs associated with HIV/AIDS, competitive assessment, the product profiles of the major marketed products and the promising drugs in the pipeline, an overview of the discontinued projects, the implications for future market competition, and the key players in the HIV/AIDS market.

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Rajesh Gunnam