2012 semiannual forecast report n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
2012 Semiannual Forecast Report PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
2012 Semiannual Forecast Report

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 40

2012 Semiannual Forecast Report

0 Views Download Presentation
Download Presentation

2012 Semiannual Forecast Report

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  1. 2012 Semiannual Forecast Report December 11, 2012 ISM Business Survey Committees

  2. Speakers • Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee • Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

  3. PMI 2004 – November 2012

  4. NMI 2008 - November 2012

  5. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity2004 – November 2012

  6. Current Operating Rate Percent of Normal Capacity • December 2012 77.5% • April 2012 81.6% • December 2011 79.2% • December 2012 85.4% • April 2012 85.2% • December 2011 85.2% Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing

  7. Production Capacity ChangeReported 2012 vs. 2011 Production Capacity Dec 2012 Mfg Non-Mfg + 1.3% + 3.2%

  8. Production Capacity:Manufacturing Principal Means of Achieving Increases in 2012: • Additional personnel (permanent, temporary or contract) • More hours worked with existing personnel • Additional plant and/or equipment • Replaced equipment with technically advanced equipment

  9. Production Capacity: Non-Manufacturing Principal Means of Achieving Increases in 2012: • Additional personnel (permanent, temporary or contract) • More hours worked with existing personnel • Additional plant and/or equipment • Replaced equipment with technically advanced equipment

  10. Production Capacity ChangePredicted For 2013 Predicted Production Capacity Mfg Non-Mfg + 6.8% + 3.4%

  11. Capital Expenditures Actual 2012 vs. 2011 Predicted 2013 vs. 2012 Mfg Non-Mfg + 3.7% + 9.4% Mfg Non-Mfg + 7.6% + 7.0%

  12. Reported Purchase Price Changes Price Changes Mfg Non-Mfg Dec 2012 + 0.8% + 2.7% End 2012 vs. End 2011

  13. December 2012 Predicted Purchase Price Changes Mfg Non-Mfg April 2013 vs. End 2012 + 2.1% + 2.3% End 2013 vs. End 2012 + 2.8% + 2.7%

  14. Predicted Labor and Benefit Costs Labor & Benefit Costs Mfg Non-Mfg Dec 2012 + 1.7% + 1.9% 2013 vs. 2012

  15. Predicted Employment Change End 2013 vs. End 2012 Overall Employment Mfg Non-Mfg Dec 2012 + 0.8% + 1.3%

  16. Exports: Predicted Change FirstHalf 2013 Manufacturing Note: 81.4% of Manufacturing respondents export

  17. Exports: Predicted Change First Half 2013 Non-Manufacturing Note: 22% of Non-Manufacturing respondents export

  18. Imports: Predicted Change First Half 2013 Manufacturing Note: 85% of Manufacturing respondents import

  19. Imports: Predicted Change First Half 2013 Non-Manufacturing Note: 45.4% of Non-Manufacturing respondents import

  20. Business Revenues (nominal) December 2012 Mfg Non-Mfg Reported 2012 vs. 2011 + 4.0% + 3.4% Predicted 2013 vs. 2012 + 4.6% + 4.3%

  21. Industries Predicting Growth in Revenues 2013 vs. 2012 — Manufacturing Chemical Products Plastics & Rubber Products Apparel, Leather & Allied Products Miscellaneous Manufacturing Transportation Equipment Machinery Nonmetallic Mineral Products Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Fabricated Metal Products • Primary Metals • Petroleum & Coal Products • Computer & Electronic Products • Wood Products • Furniture & Related Products • Printing & Related Support Activities • Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products • Paper Products

  22. Industries Predicting Growth in Revenues 2013 vs. 2012 — Non-Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Accommodation & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Finance & Insurance Information Public Administration Health Care & Social Assistance • Construction • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services • Other Services • Management of Companies & Support Services • Real Estate, Rental & Leasing • Wholesale Trade • Retail Trade

  23. Business in 2013 First Half 2013 vs. Last Half 2012 Mfg Non-Mfg Better 40% 43% Same 38% 41% Worse 22% 16% Diffusion Index 59% 63.5%

  24. Business in 2013 Second Half 2013 vs. First Half 2013 Mfg Non-Mfg Better 46% 42% Same 44% 48% Worse 10% 10% Diffusion Index 68% 66%

  25. Most Important Issues Facing Business Manufacturing • Poor sales (37.8%) • Government regulations (30.5%) • Inflation (9.8%) • Taxes (9.1%) • Quality of labor (4.9%) • Interest rates and finance (4.3%) • Cost of labor (3.7%)

  26. Most Important Issues Facing Business Non-Manufacturing • Government regulations (35.4%) • Poor sales (22.2%) • Cost of labor (10.4%) • Inflation (9%) • Interest rates and finance (9%) • Taxes (7.6%) • Quality of labor (6.3%)

  27. Supply Chain Improvements 2013 Manufacturing Most Cited Approaches • Strategic sourcing/supply base rationalization • Inventory management and control • Process and information systems improvements • Supplier performance management • Demand planning to reduce supply lead times

  28. Supply Chain Improvements 2013 Non-Manufacturing Most Cited Approaches • Strategic cost management • Process improvement • Strategic sourcing • Supplier relationship management • Professional development

  29. Change for 2013 vs. 2012 Predicted Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Mfg Non-Mfg Expect to Increase 19% 12% Expect No Change 60% 79% Expect to Decrease 21% 9% Diffusion Index 49% 51.5%

  30. Business Outlook Next 12 Months Mfg Non-Mfg Better 42% 47% Same 38% 31% Worse 20% 22% Diffusion Index 61% 62.5%

  31. Strength of the U.S. Dollar for 2013 Manufacturing Dec 2013 53.3% Dec 2012 49.2% Average Diffusion Index for U.S. Dollar vs. 7 Major Currencies

  32. Reported Profit MarginsApr 2012 – Nov 2012 Mfg Non-Mfg Better 34% 21% Same 40% 44% Worse 26% 35% Diffusion Index 54% 43%

  33. Predicted Profit MarginsNov 2012 – Apr 2013 Mfg Non-Mfg Better 28% 28% Same 50% 53% Worse 22% 19% Diffusion Index 53% 54.5%

  34. Summary Manufacturing • Operating rate is currently at 77.5%. • Production capacity increased by 1.3% in 2012. • Production capacity is expected to increase by 6.8% in 2013. • Capital expenditures increased 3.7% in 2012. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 7.6% in 2013.

  35. Summary Manufacturingcontinued • Prices paid increased 0.8% in 2012. • Overall 2013 prices paid are expected to increase 2.8%. • Labor and benefit costs are expected to increase 1.7% in 2013. • Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.8% in 2013. • Expect growth in U.S. exports in 2013. • Expect growth in U.S. imports in 2013.

  36. Summary Manufacturingcontinued • Manufacturing revenues (nominal) are up 4% in 2012. • Manufacturing revenues (nominal) are expected to increase 4.6% in 2013. • The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen on average versus major trading partner currencies in 2013. • Overall attitude of manufacturing supply managers: optimistic, with 80% of respondents predicting 2013 will be the same as or better than 2012.

  37. Summary Non-Manufacturing • Operating rate is currently at 85.4%. • Production capacity increased 3.2% in 2012. • Production and provision capacity is expected to increase 3.4% in 2013. • Capital expenditures increased 9.4% in 2012. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 7% in 2013. • Prices paid increased 2.7% in 2012.

  38. Summary Non-Manufacturing continued • Prices paid are expected to increase 2.7% in 2013. • Labor and benefit costs are expected to increase 1.9% in 2013. • Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.3% in 2013. • Expect export levels to increase in 2013. • Expect import growth in 2013.

  39. Summary Non-Manufacturing continued • Non-manufacturing revenues (nominal) are up 3.4% in 2012. • Non-manufacturing revenues (nominal) are expected to rise 4.3% in 2013. • Overall attitude of non-manufacturing supply managers: mostly positive outlook, with 78% of respondents predicting 2013 will be the same as or better than 2012.

  40. Questions