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The Wireless Now. The current wireless market, trends, and future directions. UMBC. Sean Carton Unplugged Interactive October 12, 2000. Topics. Technology Trends Wireless Technology Overview Consumer Trends

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The wireless now

The Wireless Now

The current wireless market, trends, and future directions


Sean Carton

Unplugged Interactive

October 12, 2000


  • Technology Trends

  • Wireless Technology Overview

  • Consumer Trends

  • Putting it All Together

  • Future Directions

What we’re going to cover...

The big trends
The Big Trends...

  • Moving away from PCs

  • Net.Everywhere

Where the Web’s going...

Moving away from pcs
Moving away from PCs

  • 60 % of US households online by end 2000…57% of new users will not use PCs. (Cahners-Instat)

  • Appliances will include enhanced cable, set-top boxes, and gaming devices.

  • Appliances will surpass PCs by 2003 (IDC Research)

The days of the PC are over...

Net everywhere

  • US Mobile users expected to more than double by the end of 2000…4 million users expected. (Yankee Group)

  • 1 Billion global users on mobile by 2003. (Yankee Group)

  • By 2003, more users on mobile than on PCs (IDC Research)

  • Mobile e-commerce market $200M by 2004 (Strategy Analytics)

  • 80% of US users will access the Web via mobile devices by 2001 (CapGemini)

  • 3.5 billion mobile phone users by 2010 (SRIC)

The rise of the Wireless Web...

Net everywhere1

"Essentially, we will be surrounded by devices rather than focusing on one desktop PC. Pervasive, or ubiquitous, computing is the next plateau”

David King, PricewaterhouseCoopers

Technology Forecast 2000

The rise of the Wireless Web...

Net everywhere2

More than just cellphones...

What do the trends point to
What do the trends point to?

  • The Web will be everywhere

  • The Web will be a part of everyday life, not an add-on

  • People will be used to not using PCs

  • Everyone will be connected all the time

Everyone connected all the time...

The technology
The Technology

  • Cellphones

  • PDAs

    • HTML (WinCE, PocketPC)

    • PQA (Palm VII)

  • Hybrid/Specialized Devices/Networking

    • Bluetooth

  • Voice Portals: Vortals

What drives the devices...

How it works
How it works...

A new gateway to the Net...

Wap a different metaphor
WAP: A different metaphor

“decks” and “cards”

Wap example code
WAP: Example Code

<?xml version="1.0"?>



<wml id="chooseDeck" class="select">


<do type="prev">




<card id="selection" title="Menu" newcontext="true">


<b>Select Option</b><br/>

<a href="hello-1.wml">1st example</a><br/>

<a href="hello-2.wml">2nd example</a><br/>

<a href="#caps">Caps</a><br/>



<card id="caps" title="CAPS">

<p id="caps" align="center">



<a id="back" href="#selection" title="Menu">





Subset of XML...

I mode

  • Huge in Japan

  • Extremely low-cost ($1/month)

  • Micropayment model via subscription

  • Over 13,000 sites

  • More using it for Web access than PC

  • Uses HTML (sort of)

The next

Big Thing?

Pda technologies
PDA Technologies

  • Web-Clipping Apps: PalmVII

    • Small

    • Act as “gateways”

    • Widely available

    • Created using current tools

    • Features for determining current location and feeding data to application

  • HTML: PocketPC & WinCE

    • Standard HTML access

    • Format differences

Hybrid technologies bluetooth
Hybrid Technologies: Bluetooth

  • Short-distance networking

  • Mobile phones

  • Computers

  • PDAs

  • Net-enabled devices

Connecting all the dots...


  • Voice activated

  • Gateway to text Web

  • Re-purposing of audio content from radio/Web

  • Expensive (air time)

  • Will revenue model work?

Browse the Web with your voice...

The consumer is taking control
The Consumer Is Taking Control

“We stand now on the brink of a fundamental shift of power: from producers to consumers, and from institutions more generally to individuals. We are, in a sense, witnessing the end of consumer dependence.”

Yankelovich Monitor, 1999-2000.

Power shift...

Consumer control
Consumer Control

  • “My Whatever” sites popular

  • Some of the biggest online segments:

    • Travel

    • Health

    • Automotive

    • Auction

  • Pricing comparison, e-pinion sites on the rise

  • “I thought I was immune to the Net…then I got bitten by eBay.” William Gibson

How the Net fits in...

Consumer control1
Consumer Control

  • Autonomy

    • 85% of consumers: “It is important to me to feel in charge of every part of my life.”

  • Enjoyment

    • 81% of consumers: “Need to get more pleasure out of life.”

  • Diversity

    • 76% of consumers: “People should feel free to look, dress, and live the way they want.”

What matters to consumers...

Consumer control a world built by me




Consumer Control=“A World Built By Me”

Power shifting over time...

New consumer
New Consumer

  • Networked

  • Information-gatherers

  • Brand as shorthand, not as status

  • Situational

  • Smart and info-savvy

  • Show me!


Wireless fits the trends
Wireless fits the trends

  • Information always available

  • Part of lifestyle, not an add-on

  • Consumer in control in all environments

  • Be smart all the time: digital brain-boosted consumer

  • Always connected to personal networks of influence

Wireless-- on trend

Location based services
Location-based services

  • Know where the consumer is at all times.

  • Market to the situation.

  • Become indispensable.

  • Entertainment, travel biggest opportunities.

  • Privacy a big issue

On location...

Vertical targeted apps
Vertical, targeted apps

  • On-site estimating

  • Time/Expense reporting

  • Product information

  • Expert-system access

  • On-site order status/modification

  • Scoring/Stats Management

  • Medical data/patient data

  • On-site benefits management

Services, not ads...

Vertical targeted apps1
Vertical, targeted apps

  • W-Tickets

  • W-Coupons

  • Personal info

  • Travel management

  • W-Banking

  • In-store promotions

  • Location-specific

Services, not ads...

Future directions
Future Directions

  • Wireless broadband

    • Audio

    • Video

    • Streaming

    • G3 Services

  • I-mode & AOL

  • Device integration

  • Embedded Internet

  • Death of analog

Where to next...









For more info...

Wireless brand experience anywhere

Wireless... Brand Experience.Anywhere