Advancements in Ocean Forecasting: The Bluelink Partnership for Environmental Management

1. Building Bluelink Richard Matear, David Griffin, Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller et al. June 2007 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

2. Introduction • Bluelink: a partnership between the • Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and • the Royal Australian Navy

3. Introduction • Bluelink: a partnership between the • Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and • the Royal Australian Navy • Talk Outline • Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM • Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Bluelink ReANalysis, BRAN • Bluelink High-Resolution Regional Analysis HRRA • Bluelink biological modelling

4. Minimum resolution: ~100km ~10km resolution Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM • Global configuration of MOM4 • Eddy-resolving around Australia • 10 m vertical resolution to 200 m, then coarser • Surface fluxes from ECMWF (for reanalyses) … every 10th grid point shown

5. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model. Influence of sealevel obs at x

6. Ensemble OI: vertical projection of surface observations- similar to multiple linear regression Plan view of sea-level increments Cross-section of temperature increments

7. -> need both SST and SLA. Plan view of sea-level increments Cross-section of temperature bkgnd (grey) & analysis (black-colour)

8. BLUElink Reanalyses Ocean Reanalysis over last 15 years (1992-2006) with focus on Asian-Australian Region Boundary conditions for nested models Physical fields for biogeochemical applications Evaluate strength/weaknesses of ocean monitoring and forecasting systems in Asian-Australian Region (part of GODAE Intercomparison Project) Timor Sea Volume Transports

9. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0

10. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0

11. Relocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model, ROAM • Automatic implementation via visual interface of hydrodynamic model (MECO) and atmospheric model (RAMS [CSU]) with minimum user input • Forecasts of ocean and atmosphere state out to 3 days • Ocean domains of scales down to 100 km x 100 km with resolution down to 2km • Boundary Conditions: • Lateral ocean boundary information from OFAM • Lateral boundary information for atmosphere from LAPS • Surface atmospheric data for ocean from RAMS

12. New Application: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment (WAMSI + MTSRF) • Present-day climate: BRAN and/or Mk3 simulation (FY 2007/2008) • Future scenarios: Mk3 or other IPCCC simulations (FY 2008/2009) Mk3 or other (~100km): Global Responsibility: CSIRO OFAM (~10km): Australian Region Responsibility: WAMSI Node 2 (CSIRO) SHOC (~1km): SW-WA Resp.: WAMSI Node 1 (CSIRO) ROMS (~1km): Ningaloo Resp.: WAMSI Node 2 (AIMS/UWA) SHOC (~1km): GBR Resp.: MTSRF (AIMS, CSIRO) Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale

13. ARBGC Model: Nitrogen Cycling in the Photic Zone • Focus on nutrient and carbon cycling in the upper ocean for multi-year simulations • Linked to carbon cycling in the ocean

14. with SSHA overlay Possible mechanisms of eddy formation and entrainment of shelf waters. SeaWiFS Figure adapted from Pearce & Griffiths 1991 May 6th 2000

15. Testing the hypothesis in-situ - TIP2000 cruise • TIP2000 Cruise

16. ARBCG model: phytoplankton and SST

17. Biological data assimilation: model calibration • Observed annual mean Chlorophyll • 1D assimilation • 3-D assimilation

18. Summary (I) • Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean • “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open • and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance • Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields • Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. • Public access for registered users: • http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink • (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research) • BLUElink 2: Improving the current forecast system and moving inshore • (wave forecasting) • New and challenging application outside Bluelink: Downscaling of • Climate Change in the Marine Environment • New Funding for Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) - provides an avenue to expand ocean observations (eg. ARGO, Radar systems, Gliders, Moorings )

19. Summary (II) • Present focus on the physical model but desire to expand to biological models • A BGC model has been coupled to BLUElink physical model • Plan to calibrate biological model by assimilating ocean colour into 1D and 3D biological models • Future Needs • Sustained biogeochemical observations to support BGC modelling and data assimilation • environmental management • fisheries management • carbon management Thank you!

20. Bluelink ReANalysis, BRAN

21. Thank you

22. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique

23. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique • Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S

24. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique • Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S • To constrain the model to match reality, then make a forecast

25. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS • Multivariate assimilation system: • sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V Single point assimilation …

26. Free-running model:

27. HRRA - Gridded altimetry and SST,statistically projected to depth:

28. BRAN1.0:

29. BRAN1.5smoother, more realistic, no warm bias

30. BRAN1.5 cf HRRA – 2005

31. Surface Zooplankton

32. Mixed Layer Depth and Phytoplankton Phytoplankton refects a balance between growth and grazing

33. Summary (I) • Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean • “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open • and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance • Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields • Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. • Public access for registered users: • http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink • (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research) • BLUElink 2: Improving the current • forecast system and moving inshore • (wave forecasting) • New and challenging application • outside Bluelink: Downscaling of • Climate Change in the Marine • Environment (MTSRF and WAMSI)

34. Summary (II) • BGC model simulations coupled to BLUElink physical model • Data Assimilation into 1D and 3D biological model • Sustained biogeochemical observations to support BGC modelling and assimilation • environmental management • fisheries management • carbon management Thank you!