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SERBIA Economic Outlook

SERBIA Economic Outlook. Nikolay Georgiev Dushan Nedeljkovic. Outline. Country Facts Trends of macroeconomic aggregates Economic activity Indicators Labor Market Trade FDI Monetary policy and Exchange Rate Wages. Country Facts. Territory – 77474 sq km Population – 7.4 million

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SERBIA Economic Outlook

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  1. SERBIAEconomic Outlook Nikolay Georgiev Dushan Nedeljkovic

  2. Outline • Country Facts • Trends of macroeconomic aggregates • Economic activity Indicators • Labor Market • Trade • FDI • Monetary policy and Exchange Rate • Wages

  3. Country Facts • Territory – 77474 sq km • Population – 7.4 million • Capital – Belgrade • Currency – Dinar (RSD) • Official Language – Serbian • Major Economic and Political Reforms – 2000 • Natural resources – oil, gas, coal, iron ore, copper, zinc, gold, silver, magnesium, limestone, marble, salt, arable land

  4. Trends of macroeconomic aggregates • Average GDP growth for the period 2002-2008 is 6.1% • Increase in aggregate demand • High investment and Structural Reforms • Higher productivity and increased efficiency due to privatization • Positive financial results of RSD 108 billion in 2006 • Still recovering from the slump in 1990s

  5. Economic activity Indicators

  6. Labor Market • In the period 2001-2008 employment level falls • Increase in the employment in the private sector but downsizing of the Stated-owned enterprises • Unemployment remained high (around 21%) but decreases in 2007 and 2008 18.8% and 14.7% respectively

  7. Trade • Major trade partners – Austria, Russia, Germany, Italy, Bosnia, Romania, Bulgaria • Main imports are fuel, capital goods and transport equipment, main exports – manufacturing goods, food, transport equipment, machinery • In the period 2001-2007 exports increased dramatically due to increase of aggregate demand. • Imports grew even faster due to the same reason plus the effect of the appreciation of the RSD • Trade deficit increase from 20.8% of the GDP in 2005 to 22.8% of the GDP in 2007 • CA deficit also increased from 10.0% of the GDP in 2005 to 14.7% of the GDP in 2007

  8. Foreign Direct Investment • In the period 2005-2007 Serbia’s capital balance increased significantly due to the great amount of FDI – EUR 6.3 billions • In 2008 – decrease in FDI

  9. Monetary policy and Exchange Rate • Due to the high inflation the NBS had to impose restrictive monetary policy in the period 2005 - 2007 • The dinar euro XR increased in real terms by 20.5% • As a result in 2008 inflation was 6.8%

  10. Wages • Average net wages grew in the period 2001 – 2008 reaching 32,746 RSD (EUR 347) in 2008. • Wage growth, especially in the public sector, combined with local currency appreciation, brought about to an increase of unit costs of labor and lower competitiveness of the economy.

  11. Thank you for the attention!

  12. Sources http://www.mfin.sr.gov.yu/ http://www.mfin.sr.gov.yu/eng/2742/ http://www.mfin.sr.gov.yu/eng/3041/ http://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/30/index.html

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