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1000 km 1.25 h

G-IV Pre- CalWater AR Experiment. Mission Scientist Summary Marty Ralph (Scripps Inst. Oceanography); Fri day 14 February 2014. IOP-6 Completed 14 Feb. IOP-7 Planned for 15 Feb. TDR- Eval Module : 4 .2 h, 4 sondes. TDR + 2 AR boxes; 7 h, 14 sondes. 1000 km 1.25 h.

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1000 km 1.25 h

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  1. G-IV Pre-CalWater AR Experiment Mission Scientist Summary Marty Ralph (Scripps Inst. Oceanography); Friday 14 February 2014 IOP-6 Completed 14 Feb IOP-7 Planned for 15 Feb TDR-EvalModule: 4.2 h, 4 sondes TDR + 2 AR boxes; 7 h, 14 sondes 1000 km 1.25 h 1400 km / 1.75 h 1400 km / 1.75 h Friday 14 Feb Saturday 12 Feb

  2. IOP-7 TDR + AR boxes: TO 930 AM 15 Feb; 14 drops Chief Scientist: Marty Ralph Drops every 50 nm on boxes 1 and 2, plus 2 drops TBD (total 14 drops) Waypoint not part of an AR Box Waypoint is part of an AR Box

  3. Daily Planning Summary Update: 14 Feb (Marty Ralph)

  4. G-IV Pre-Calwater AR Experiment ForecastSummary (1/4) – Jay Cordeira Friday 14 February 2014 • Day-1 (Fri): Stalled AR located along NorCal Coast with forecast on track from yesterday • Day-2 (Sat): Gulf of AK cyclone cold frontal AR bring AR conditions to NorCal/OR with south-southwest IVT vector • Days-3-5 (Sun/Tue): “Extratropical AR” makes landfall PacNW and impacts as far south as NorCal • Days-3-7 (Sun-Thu): complicated poleward water vapor transport (not really an AR) located out near HNL

  5. G-IV Pre-Calwater AR Experiment ForecastSummary (2/4) Friday 14 February 2014 • Days-8-9 (Fri-Sat): Possible AR located in between HNL, ANC, TAFB which may move east toward within range of TAFB by day-9 • Days 10-15: Possible AR activity across North Pacific. Models have not been too optimistic lately, but today’s forecast suggests some AR activity between HNL, ANC, TAFB

  6. G-IV Pre-Calwater AR Experiment Executive Summary (3/4) Integrated Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport (IVT) and Direction from GFS Model: Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5 Day-6 Day-7 Day-8 These possible ARs contain low IWV values and develop in extratropics

  7. Overview through IOP-6 • 6 IOPs flown in 8 days • 3 AR box flights, 1 frontal wave flight and 2 TDR coastal flights • 9 AR divergence boxes and 5 IVT cross-sections (1 coastal) • 35 h flown • 130 drops used • Start of experiment marked by very active period of moderate to strong Atmospheric Rivers hitting northern California, Oregon and Washington. • Many locations with 3-day precipitation totals over 8 inches, with some over 12 inches. California’s 8-station Index went from 16% of normal to date to 40% of normal to date over 3-4 days (6-10 Feb) due to precipitation from landfalling ARs. • Flooding in SW Oregon by 15 Feb as second series of landfalling ARs hit that region. • New types of G-IV flight patterns focused on ARs were developed and tested. • First low-altitude G-IV flight leg conducted at FL050 conducted about 100 nm from coast. • New AR-focused forecast products developed to help guide flights and mission planning.

  8. IOPs Completed

  9. G-IV Pre-Calwater AR Experiment Forecast Summary (4/4) Friday 14 February 2014 WPC 7-day Precipitation Forecast ending 12Z Friday 21 Feb 2014

  10. Synopsis of IOPs 1 and 2 • 3 AR boxes flown Friday 7 Feb • 6 h; 23/23 sondes • Modules captured desired conditions including AR core • Marty Ralph (CS), Janet Intrieri (Met), Ryan Spackman (Ops Center) • Frontal wave flown Saturday 8 Feb • 8 h; 29/29 sondes • 3 transects with two points repeated • Moderate strength AR in well-defined frontal wave • Marty Ralph (CS), Dave Reynolds (Met), Jay Jasperse (Observer) • Cancelled planned IVT mission for Sunday 9 Feb • Precip predicted to have ended offshore too early • Flight planning dealt well with military warning areas and ATC constraints • G-IV engine performance sensor repair needed; flew to Gulfstream in Vegas

  11. G-IV Pre-CalWater AR Experiment Mission Scientist Summary Marty Ralph (Scripps Inst. Oceanography); Sunday 9February 2014 03Z/8 00Z/8 03Z/9 00Z/9 03Z/10 00Z/10 21Z/7 18Z/7 21Z/8 IOP-1 Completed 10 AM – 4 PM PT Takeoff 11 AM PT Sat 8 Feb TAFB Possible IOP Take off Sun 9 Feb TAFB 18Z/8 21Z/9 18Z/9 DONE; 6 H MISSION, 23 DROPS DONE; 8 H MISSION; 29 DROPS cancelled – due to too little precip offshore - And G-IV repair needed (Vegas) 1000 km 1.25 h 1000 km 1.25 h 1400 km / 1.75 h 1400 km / 1.75 h AR axis is shown at different times (hh/date) Analyses courtesy of Jason Cordeira

  12. IOP-2; Completed 11 AM – 7 PM PT Saturday 8 Feb; 29 drops Transect 1 Transect 2 Transect 3 Onboard: - Marty Ralph (Chief Scientist) - Dave Reynolds (Meteorologist) - Jay Jasperse (SCWA) Ops Center: - Ryan Spackman

  13. IOP-1; Completed 10 AM – 4 PM Friday 7 Feb; 23 drops Box 3 Box 2 Box 1 Onboard: - Marty Ralph (Chief Scientist) - Janet Intrieri (Meteorologist) Ops Center: - Ryan Spackman 50 nm X 100 nm box 100 nm X 100 nm box

  14. G-IV Pre-CalWater AR Experiment Mission Scientist Summary Marty Ralph (Scripps Inst. Oceanography); Friday 14 February 2014 IOP-3 Completed 11 Feb IOP-4 Completed 12Feb IOP-5 Completed 13 Feb Tuesday 11 Feb Thursday 13 Feb IVT x-section; 6 h, 23 sondes 3 AR Box Module: 6.1 h, 36 sondes IVT-TDR Module: 4.2 h, 14 sondes 1000 km 1.25 h 1000 km 1.25 h 1400 km / 1.75 h 1400 km / 1.75 h Thursday 13 Feb Tuesday 11 Feb Wednesday 12 Feb Analyses courtesy of Jason Cordeira

  15. Overview of IOP-3:Ryan Spackman- Chief Scientist onboard • 1720 – 2325 UTC, 11 Feb 2014 (6.1 h block) • Strong AR west of OR • Over 1600 units IVT • Off the scale for the new ARDT-IVT • GFS forecast initialized at 12 Z increased the max IVT by 200 units compared to 06 Z run • Due to extreme nature of the event, the dropsonde spacing was decreased along the western sides of each box to 25 nm (46 km) to allow quantification of IVT in a cross-section of an extreme AR. • This added about 9 sondes to the flight. • Used 38 sondes, incl 2 special “slow descent sonde” for AOC testing. • LLJ reached at least 87 kts. • 1000-km long cross-section from SW corner to NW corner of overall flight pattern with 25 nm (46 km) sonde spacing from 1903-2125 UTC Cross-section with hi-res (25 nm; 46 km spacing)

  16. IOP-3: 920 AM – 330 PM Tuesday 11 Feb; 37 drops Box 3 Box 2 Box 1 • Onboard: • - Ryan Spackman (Chief Scientist) • TBD (Meteorologist) • TBD (Observer) • Ops Center: • - Marty Ralph 50 nm X 100 nm box Dropsonde spacing: 50 nm, except for 25 nm along western edges of the pattern to produce hi-res cross-section of an extreme AR. 100 nm X 100 nm box 100 nm X 150 nm box

  17. IOP-4 IVT: TO 920 AM Wednesday 12 Feb; 4.2 h, 15 drops Pt 3 Pts 2, 4 Pt 5 Pts 1, 6 Chief Scientist: Ryan Spackman Meteorologist: Allen White Observer: Capt. Rebecca Stone (NPS) Dropsonde spacing: 60 nm to 39 N, then 30 nm Avoid 8000-17000 ft on return where T= +2 C to -12 C

  18. IOP-5 IVT far-offshore: TO 920 AM Thursday 13 Feb; 6 h, 23 drops 2100 UTC 13 Feb Chief Scientist: Allen White Meteorologist: None Observer: Capt. None Drops every 1 deg Latitude from 34-36 N Drops every 40 nm along track from 36 -46 N Drops every 1 deg Latitude from 46-49 N

  19. IOP-6 Stacked TDR Flight incl FL050: TO 1038 AM, Fri 14 Feb; 4 h, 4 drops Pt2 Pt1 TAFB Chief Scientist: Allen White Routing: Pt 1 to 2 at FL380 (or higher) Pt 2 to 1 at FL060 (or below icing layer) Pt 1 to 2 at FL170 (or above icing layer) Icing Layer: +2 to -12C Dropsondes only on high leg at 38, 40, 41.5, 43N

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