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New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California

New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California. March 21, 2012 Tim Olson Senior Transportation Advisor California Energy Commission tolson@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-4528. California Crude Oil Imports. California Fuel Demand.

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New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California

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  1. New Motor Vehicle Board9th Industry RoundtableSacramento, California • March 21, 2012 • Tim OlsonSenior Transportation AdvisorCalifornia Energy Commission • tolson@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-4528

  2. California Crude Oil Imports

  3. California Fuel Demand

  4. California Gasoline Fuel Price Forecast

  5. California Diesel and Biodiesel Fuel Price Forecasts(2008 cents per gallon)

  6. Other Driving Factors/Trends • Natural Gas Supply Increase • Renewable Portfolio Standard – Electricity Supply • Federal Alternative Fuels Incentives • California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, AB 32 Climate Change Law and Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate • Renewable Fuels Standard II

  7. Key Policy Objectives

  8. Investment Plan Analysis Advanced biofuels Contribution of each fuel/technology category to reducing GHG emissions through 2050 Fuel economy MMT CO2e Electric drive/ hydrogen Natural gas/ propane/ renewable diesel

  9. U.S. Ethanol Use and RFS Obligations 1993-2022 Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EPA , and Energy Commission analysis.

  10. California Light Duty Vehicle Counts (2008) Vehicle Type Number & Growth Rate (2001-2008) 25.6 Million (1.7%) 464,000 (5.6%) 333, 000 (75%) 382,000 (22%) 14, 600 (26%) 24, 800 (35%) 190 (N/A ) • Gasoline • Diesel • Hybrid • Flexible Fuel Vehicle • Electric • Natural Gas • Hydrogen

  11. Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles2008 Distribution • 952,000 Trucks and Buses On Road • Diesel 60% • Gasoline 38.5% • Natural Gas 1% • Propane, Electric, Hydrogen, Hybrids and Others <1%

  12. PEV Market Penetration By 2020 (California, U.S. and Global Market Studies) • Goldman Sachs – 2% (Global) • NRDC – 3.2% (U.S.) • CARB – 5% (CA) • Boston Consulting Moderate – 5.2% (U.S.) • HIS Global Insight – 5.8% (Global) • Deutsche Bank – 6.6% (U.S.) • McKinsey & Co – 8% (Global) • Boston Consulting High – 10% (U.S.) • Roland Berger – 12.9% (U.S.) • International Energy Agency – 14% (Global)

  13. Waste Stream Feedstocks Source: California Biomass Collaborative, 2008.

  14. Progress Toward Achieving 26% Alternative Fuel/Vehicle Goal in 2022 • Renewable Fuel Standard II – California Fair Share Ethanol Use by 2020: • 12% Market Penetration – Low Growth Case, Or • 17% Market Penetration – High Growth Case • 440,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020 (1%) • Natural Gas MD/HD Market Penetration by 2020 (3%) • Other Alternative Fuels (? %)

  15. Program Objectives • Transform California’s fuel and vehicle types to help attain the state’s climate change, energy security and air quality goals • Provide immediate GHG, petroleum reduction and criteria pollutant benefits and the impetus for the long-term transition to a clean, low-carbon fuel market • Create new projects, products and businesses to promote economic development

  16. Funding Allocation Summary FYs 2008-09 and 2009-10

  17. ARFVT Program Funding Impact on Alternative Fueling Stations and Alternative Vehicle Deployment in California Source: Extrapolated from 2009 DMV data, plus actual deployment data. Electric truck and natural gas trucks extrapolated from 2009 data.

  18. Summary of Anticipated Benefits for Fuels and Vehicles Supported by the ARFVT Program

  19. AB 118 Program Funding Covering First Four Years Spring 2012 Solicitations Alternative Fuel Infrastructure ($30 Million) Biofuel Production($37 Million) Manufacturing Incentives $10 Million) Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Buydown Incentive (18 Million MD/HD Vehicle Demos (9 Million Electric Vehicle Regional Planning Workforce Training ($ 8 Million) • Alternative Fuel Infrastructure - $108 Million • Vehicle and Component Part Manufacturing - $37 Million • Medium and Heavy Duty Engine and Vehicle Prototypes and Demonstrations - $35 Million • Biofuel Production Incentives - $90 Million • Propane and Natural Gas Vehicle Deployment - $39 Million • Other Programs - $41 Million

  20. California’s Transition to Diversified Transportation Fuels and Vehicles By 2020 • Private Investment of $100 Billion - $200 Billion • State of California Incentives ($100 Million - $200 Million Per Year until 2020) and Full Implementation of LCFS and AB 32 • Extension of Existing Federal Tax Credits and Incentives • Advanced Biofuels – 50 Projects in California and/or Breakthrough in Long Chain Biohydrocarbons • 440,000 Electric Vehicles in California/1.4 Million in 2025 • Medium Duty/Heavy Duty Transition to Non Petroleum Platform Electric Hybrid (Natural Gas, Electric Hybrid and Hydraulic Electric, Biofuel) and All Electric • Advances in HCCI and Merging of Other Engine Technologies

  21. The AB 118 Program • Approximately $100 Million per year • Development, production, manufacture, and deployment of alternative and renewable fuels, advanced vehicles, and vehicle efficiency • Workforce training • Education and outreach • Environmental, market and technology assessments

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