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Motor Vehicle Outlook

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  1. Motor Vehicle Outlook Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis Department of Treasury State of Michigan

  2. U. S. Automotive Outlook • What Affects Auto Purchases • Changing Auto Market • Shares of Production • U. S. Automotive Outlook

  3. Factors Affecting Auto SalesAbility to Buy

  4. Real Disposable Income Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  5. New Domestic Car Prices Stable Import $30,347 (-5.1%) Domestic $18,724 (0.8%) Sources: AAMA & Automotive News, Market Data Book 2000

  6. Low Interest Rates Help Sales 17.78% 7.84% Source: Comerica Bank

  7. Best Affordability Since 1980 24.4 weeks in 1999 23.1 weeks 1st half 2000 22.9 weeks in 1979 Source: Comerica Bank Economics Department

  8. Consumer Debt PaymentsInstallment, Mortgage & Auto Leases 14.8% 2000 Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

  9. Factors Affecting Auto SalesWillingness to Buy

  10. Consumer Car Buying Attitudes 158 144 Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, July 2000

  11. Vehicle Age Declining 1999 Median for Cars 8.3 years 1999 Median for Trucks 7.2 years Source: AutomotiveNews, 1999 Market Data Book

  12. Vehicles Per Household 1.90 1.81 1.22

  13. Oil Prices Rising $35.24 $27.10 Source: Monthly Energy Review, Standard and Poor’s DRI

  14. More Dependent on Petroleum Imports Total 56.6% All-OPEC Persian Gulf Source: Monthly Energy Review

  15. Stock Market Growth Slows 1518 Aug-00

  16. Demand For Motor Vehicles • Trend • Wealth Effect • Economic Conditions • Price Incentives

  17. Vehicle Sales Trend Sales Trend Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

  18. Motor Vehicle Production • Capacity Utilization • Worker Bonuses • Occupational Mix Changing • Improved Vehicle Production Management • Improved Vehicle Demand Management

  19. 1999 Production and CapacityNorth America 111% 92% Source: Automotive News, 2000 Market Data Book

  20. Big 3 Profit Sharing Checks Daimler Chrysler $8,100 Ford $8,000 GM $1,775 Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports

  21. Occupation Mix Shifts in Michigan’s Vehicle Industry 21.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Economy.Com

  22. Improved Vehicle Production Management 0.52 Source: Bureau of the Census

  23. Improved Vehicle Demand Management 35.7% 25.2% Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, Economy.Com, WEFA

  24. 2000 Forecast Accuracy

  25. Light Vehicle Forecasts

  26. U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar and Light Truck Sales Forecast Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

  27. U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar Sales Forecast Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

  28. U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookLight Truck Sales Forecast Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

  29. U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookSummary • Record Level Sales • Vehicle Mix Continues to Shift • Income and Affordability Key to Sales • Near Capacity Production • Oil Prices and Stock Market Uncertain

  30. Motor Vehicle Outlook Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis Department of Treasury State of Michigan