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Motor Vehicle Outlook Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis Department of Treasury State of Michigan U. S. Automotive Outlook

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motor vehicle outlook

Motor Vehicle Outlook

Motor Vehicle Outlook

FTA Revenue Estimating Conference

Waterville Valley, New Hampshire

September 25, 2000

Mark Haas, Director

Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist

Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis

Department of Treasury

State of Michigan

u s automotive outlook
U. S. Automotive Outlook
  • What Affects Auto Purchases
  • Changing Auto Market
  • Shares of Production
  • U. S. Automotive Outlook
real disposable income growth
Real Disposable Income Growth

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

new domestic car prices stable
New Domestic Car Prices Stable

Import

$30,347

(-5.1%)

Domestic

$18,724

(0.8%)

Sources: AAMA & Automotive News, Market Data Book 2000

low interest rates help sales
Low Interest Rates Help Sales

17.78%

7.84%

Source: Comerica Bank

best affordability since 1980
Best Affordability Since 1980

24.4 weeks in 1999

23.1 weeks 1st half 2000

22.9 weeks in 1979

Source: Comerica Bank Economics Department

consumer debt payments installment mortgage auto leases
Consumer Debt PaymentsInstallment, Mortgage & Auto Leases

14.8%

2000

Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

consumer car buying attitudes
Consumer Car Buying Attitudes

158

144

Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, July 2000

vehicle age declining
Vehicle Age Declining

1999 Median for Cars 8.3 years

1999 Median for Trucks 7.2 years

Source: AutomotiveNews, 1999 Market Data Book

oil prices rising
Oil Prices Rising

$35.24

$27.10

Source: Monthly Energy Review, Standard and Poor’s DRI

more dependent on petroleum imports
More Dependent on Petroleum Imports

Total 56.6%

All-OPEC

Persian Gulf

Source: Monthly Energy Review

demand for motor vehicles
Demand For Motor Vehicles
  • Trend
  • Wealth Effect
  • Economic Conditions
  • Price Incentives
vehicle sales trend
Vehicle Sales Trend

Sales

Trend

Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

motor vehicle production
Motor Vehicle Production
  • Capacity Utilization
  • Worker Bonuses
  • Occupational Mix Changing
  • Improved Vehicle Production Management
  • Improved Vehicle Demand Management
1999 production and capacity north america
1999 Production and CapacityNorth America

111%

92%

Source: Automotive News, 2000 Market Data Book

big 3 profit sharing checks
Big 3 Profit Sharing Checks

Daimler Chrysler

$8,100

Ford $8,000

GM $1,775

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports

occupation mix shifts in michigan s vehicle industry
Occupation Mix Shifts in Michigan’s Vehicle Industry

21.8%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Economy.Com

improved vehicle production management
Improved Vehicle Production Management

0.52

Source: Bureau of the Census

improved vehicle demand management
Improved Vehicle Demand Management

35.7%

25.2%

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, Economy.Com, WEFA

u s motor vehicle outlook car and light truck sales forecast
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar and Light Truck Sales Forecast

Forecast

Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

u s motor vehicle outlook car sales forecast
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookCar Sales Forecast

Forecast

Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

u s motor vehicle outlook light truck sales forecast
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookLight Truck Sales Forecast

Forecast

Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

u s motor vehicle outlook summary
U. S. Motor Vehicle OutlookSummary
  • Record Level Sales
  • Vehicle Mix Continues to Shift
  • Income and Affordability Key to Sales
  • Near Capacity Production
  • Oil Prices and Stock Market Uncertain
motor vehicle outlook30

Motor Vehicle Outlook

Motor Vehicle Outlook

FTA Revenue Estimating Conference

Waterville Valley, New Hampshire

September 25, 2000

Mark Haas, Director

Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist

Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis

Department of Treasury

State of Michigan