February 2004 Summary • Feb, DJF Official forecast skills mixed • Pacific slightly cooler overall than Jan, more La Nina-like • SSTa max W. Pac., SSTa sub-warm-event. • Convection stronger W. of dateline than Jan • MJO weaker than in Dec, Jan • Walker Circulation like Dec • PNA moderately +/AO,NAO strongly - • STJ weak, Pacific jet N. of normal • Long-lived stratospheric warming in NH high latitudes • Wet Tx, Fl, Ca • Cold Grt. Basin, South • Siberia abnormally cold • NE SOAM, NW Australia, W. EU wet
February 2004 TOfficial, Update, Observations OFF UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations +4.3 -2.2 -6.5 Non-EC: +17.2 -6.1 -23.3 % Cov: 25.0 35.3 +10.3
February 2004 POfficial, Update, Observations UPD OFF OBS Off. Up. Change All Stns: -3.0 -3.4 -0.4 Non-EC-35.0 -8.0 +27.0 % Cov: 8.6 43.1 +34.5
Forecast T DJF All Non-EC % Cov +2.6 +5.6 46.6
Forecast P DJF All Non-EC % Cov -2.2 -7.8 27.6
DJF 33-year AC skill of MRF9, ECHAM, COLA, NSIPP: Should these be stratified by ENSO vs. Neutral? TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
Thermocline tilt becomes more “La Nina-like” in February February 2004 January 2004
MJO activity, enhanced during December reached peak amplitude during January, weakened and continued in February.
As spring (fall) approached in the Northern (Southern) hemispheres during February, variability continued to be large in the global Tropics. MJO activity persisted, but was weak. Convection returned to a more West-of-the-dateline-enhanced configuration. NH 200 hPa heights were abnormally high all month, forcing lower heights to middle latitudes.
Temperature T globe
Precipitation P globe