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Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders

Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders. NOAA CLIMAS. NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy. NASA EOS. NSF SAHRA. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona hollyoregon@juno.com. Holly C. Hartmann. NOAA GAPP Human Dimensions. Issue: So Many Stakeholders!.

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Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders

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  1. Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders NOAA CLIMAS NASA HyDIS Raytheon Synergy NASA EOS NSF SAHRA Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona hollyoregon@juno.com Holly C. Hartmann NOAA GAPP Human Dimensions

  2. Issue: So Many Stakeholders! Continental Scale: Focus of climate modelers Different Scales (time & space) Different Issues Different Stakeholders Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist

  3. National Perspectives • Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise • Transferability • Scalability • Changed decisions and decision processes • Public support for climate research Enabling system-wide change Sustainability

  4. National Perspectives: NOAA RISA Program • Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise • Transferability • Scalability • Changed decisions and decision processes • Public support for climate research Enabling system-wide change Sustainability www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS Integrative: researchers/stakeholders, interdisciplinary, end-to-end Participatory, Iterative: responsive to stake- holder concerns On-going Process: mutual capacity building & sustainable legacy products Products: link variability, impacts, response options Equitable: outcomes benefit participants & equitably so

  5. Stakeholder Interactions:Multiple Techniques www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS Town Hall Meetings One-on-One Interviews Conferences and Workshops Group Discussions & Training Product Evaluation

  6. Lessons from Stakeholders Building Expectations and Trust “What are your motives?” (agenda) “How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects) “What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness) • Poor interactions with users affects: • opportunities for future work • credibility of agencies, institutions and products • Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness • Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them • Effective stakeholder integration  generate support for science funding & programs

  7. Project Objectives Affect Tactics Efficiency Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients Develop customized evaluation tools Transfer to agencies Impact Work with regulatory & policy agencies Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis Equity Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes Provide on-going support of research products and tools

  8. Role & Use of Climate Info & Forecasts Common across all groups: climate vs. weather Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation Understand implications of “normal” vs. “EC” vs. “unknown” forecasts Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill Common across many, but not all, stakeholders Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context Unique among stakeholders Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics Role of of forecasts in decision making

  9. Re-Interpreted Forecast Products Often Wrong

  10. New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks

  11. New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks Forecast formats affect the ease, accuracy, and reliability of interpretation - and correct interpretation is essential. Climate Test Bed: process for ensuring communication effectiveness

  12. http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/ • Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts • Adding water supply forecasts • Six elements in our webtool: • Exploring Forecast Progression • Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials • Historical Context • Forecast Performance • Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

  13. Historical Context for Forecasts: Analogs 2005 2004 2003

  14. Frequency of Actual Forecasts A B Forecast Forecast # Issued Coverage A JFM JJAS B JFM JJAS C JFM ONDJ D ASO ONDJ E JFM AMJJ F ASO DJFMAM precipitation temperature C D precipitation precipitation E F precipitation precipitation

  15. Forecasts issued JFM, covering JJAS Temperature: Warm Precipitation: Dry Probability of Detection Will forecasts warn me of an impending ‘critical’ event? False Alarm Rate Given a ‘critical’ forecast, can I trust it?

  16. Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users • Issues for Stakeholders • too much information • can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information

  17. Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users Ease of Use  Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data. • Accessibility  Report Generation • create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users • automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations • sections for user-customized (value-added) comments Ease of Use  Automated Alerts: using ‘push’ technology to monitor conditions and prompt special notification

  18. Automated Threshold Alert System • Part 1 -- Alert Detection and Notification • Obtain real-time data • Test against thresholds • Notify individuals: email, cell phone Clarify thresholds Alert Levels Yellow = Hiccup Orange = Heartburn Red = Heart Attack

  19. Automated Threshold Alert System • Part 2 – Respond, Report, Review: Interactive Website • Summarize threshold exceedance events: ‘Live Forms’ • Community assessment of event, cause, impacts: ‘Live Forms’ • Archive stable ‘.pdf’ reports for annual review • Self-management of projects, without software maintenance Clarify thresholds • Part 3 –New Possibility: Combine CLIDDSS and Alert System • Monitor products in a portfolio, send ‘alerts’ when condition(s) meet thresholds, initiate field reports • Field reports via ‘Live Web Form’ or cell phone text messages • Connects human observations with automated gauges, expands the ‘observation’ network

  20. Lessons Learned: Decision Support Tools • Transferable, scalable tools are possible! • Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information. • Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources. • Prototypes insufficient! • Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion. Stakeholders Information needs, understanding, access Social Science Effective communication Natural Science Forecast skill, interpretation Computer Science Web programming

  21. The Human Dimension of Integrated Research Stake holders Physical Science 1. Good Intentions Social Science 2. Momentary Integration ??? Building expectations: affects credibility of agencies, research 3. Regression Requires incentives, infrastructure, continuity, stability

  22. Climate and Society: Whose Messages Get Through?

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