1 / 13

Enhancing Policy Assessment Using Macromodeling in Poland

Explore the challenges and benefits of macromodeling for policy impact assessment in Poland, focusing on EU financial support implementation from 2004 to 2013. Learn about the evolution of the HERMIN model, data limitations, and the impact on regional economies.

reia
Download Presentation

Enhancing Policy Assessment Using Macromodeling in Poland

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND

  2. How Poland implements EU financial support • 2004-2006 • 5 Sectoral Operational Programs • Integrated Regional Operational Program (IROP) • Cohesion Fund 2007-2013 • 16 ROP (Regional Operational Program) • 3 Sectoral Operational Programs • 1 Polish East Voivodships Program

  3. + 2005: Polish voivodships

  4. HERMIN MODEL • HERMIN 1: 2001-2002 • HERMIN 2: 2003-2004 • HERMIN 3: 2004-2006 • Improvement of national model • Creation of 16 regional HERMIN models

  5. Problems with disaggregation in Polish modelling • National economy modelling Lots of data Lots of theory Lots of impressive econometrics Stable economic structures • Modelling Polish regional economies Very little data Some theory, often only of limited relevance Not much econometrics possible Evolving economic structures and instability

  6. How can we use macromodeling? • NDP2004-2006&NSRF2007-2013 impacts on the Polish economy • ROP impacts on Dolnośląskie economy

  7. Combined NDP2004-2006&NSRF2007-2013 impact on national Gross Domestic Product (%)

  8. ROP impacts: The case of Dolnosląskie Financial data for the evaluation of ROP was received from Dolnośląskie Marshal’s office and it is based on a draft of Integrated Voivodship Programme and Regional Operational Programme for Dolnośląskie Voivodship for the years 2007-2013

  9. ROP impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDPM) of Dolnośląskie

  10. Conclusions Models are only a tool!

  11. Conclusions You need at least 2 models!

  12. Thank you! stanislaw.bienias@mrr.gov.pl

More Related