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Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy - Capacity Needs Assessment

Sum-of-utilities integrated resource plans for a 10-year timeframe updated annually. Forecasting load, conservation, and hydro generation with utility estimates. Addressing capacity needs through adequacy and loss of load probability assessments. Planning for future resources and refining regional capacity assessment methods.

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Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy - Capacity Needs Assessment

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  1. 2010 Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy Technical Committee April 22, 2010

  2. The Forecast is…Sum-of-utilities integrated resource plans • 10 year timeframe – updated annually • Load forecasts – normal weather • Conservation – utility estimates • Generating resources – expected firm • Hydro generation – firm (critical water) • Future resources – utility plans • Capacity need – utility estimates Forecast = Needs Assessment

  3. Forecast≠ Adequacy Assessment Forecast Deterministic Answers 10 year questions: • How much power do we need to acquire? • What resources are planned to fill the need? Adequacy Assessment Loss of load probability Answers 3-5 year question: • What is the probability that we will not meet demand?

  4. Needs are forecast to grow

  5. Plans in place

  6. Grappling with capacity • Historic approach raises questions • Hydro sustained peaking capability • Accounting for reserves/planning margin • System Planning Committee’s interim approach used • Survey of utilities’ capacity needs based on individual utility criteria

  7. Capacity 2015 snapshot

  8. Future focus • Understanding conservation accounting • Refining regional capacity assessment • How to include reserves • What to use for planning margin

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