Tactics for facilitating adaptation

1. Tactics for facilitating adaptation Jessica C. Whitehead S.C. Sea Grant Consortium & N.C. Sea Grant Southeast and Caribbean Climate Outreach Workshop 25 May 2010

2. Outline • Barriers to adaptation planning • Top-down and bottom-up planning approaches • Accessible planning strategies in action • Adaptive management • Mainstreaming • “No regrets” and “minimal regrets” strategies • Useful tools and activities for facilitating adaptation

3. Climate Adaptation Engagement Matrix

4. Reasons for reluctance on adaptation: • Current observed changes at local, regional scales not yet directly attributable to climate change • No documentation of current adaptation effects in reducing directly attributable impacts • Impacts and vulnerabilities diverse in time, space • Relatively little research on climate change adaptation actions NRC 2010

5. NRC Risk Management Approach NRC 2010

6. TOP-DOWN Climate scenario-driven Vulnerability from impacts Infer adaptation options Focus on what to do BOTTOM-UP Community needs-driven Vulnerability from community conditions Identify adaptive capacities, processes Focus on what can be done “Top-down” and “bottom-up” adaptation planning Smit and Wandel 2006

7. “Bottom-up” Approach

8. TOP-DOWN Hydrologic model Climate scenarios force hydrologic model Determine drinking water system impacts Adaptation benefits-costs BOTTOM-UP Water system & community characteristics Exposure scenarios Socioeconomic scenarios Water system adaptive capacity Example: Salt water intrusion & water supply

9. Identify decision-makers and stakeholders • Stakeholder interactions affect decisions • Differing priorities • “Ripple effect” • Methods • Key informant interviews • Social network analysis Whitehead 2009

10. Making climate change relevant • Describe uncertain RISK to communities • Explain broader implications than just higher temperatures or inundation • Today’s risks change frequency/severity • Many are risks stakeholders already manage • Preparation saves money, time!

11. Planning for Climate Change Adaptation • Separate planning process • Punta Gorda, FL • Keene, NH • King County, WA • State of Maryland • Integrate into current planning processes • Poquoson, VA • Onslow County, NC

12. Making response accessible • Climate change may not be tipping point for action • Adaptive management: systematic cycle of implementation, assessment, readjustment • Mainstreaming: incorporate planning into existing decision-making processes and structures • “No regrets” or “minimal regrets” strategies Smit and Wandel 2006

13. Adaptive management • Adaptation is a learning process! • Systematic cycle of implementation, assessment, readjustment Adapted from Berkhout et al. 2004, Pahl-Wostl 2002

14. Mainstreaming and “no regrets” • Mainstreaming • Recognizes climate change unlikely tipping point for action • Incorporates adaptation into existing decision-making processes and structures • “No regrets” or “minimal regrets” • Seeks actions that will reduce vulnerability to immediate stressors AND climate change • Provides more motivation to pay the price Smit and Wandel 2006

15. Mainstreaming SLR into current planning processes • Zoning • Building codes • Stormwater management • Water & sewer • Land use • Economic development

16. Floor joist elevation Surviving houses (◊) Wave damaged houses Destroyed Houses Minimal regrets: Freeboard vs. failure on Bolivar Peninsula, TX during Hurricane Ike Courtesy of Spencer Rogers, NC Sea Grant

17. Useful tools and activities for facilitating adaptation • Assessment guides • Concept mapping • Causal pathways • Risk analysis • Group model building • Scenario exercises (Whitehead 2009)

18. Key steps • Identify stakeholders and decision-makers & their readiness for information and action • Make climate change relevant to management concerns • Choose strategies & make them accessible • Top down vs. bottom up • Separate vs. integrated planning process • Adaptive management, mainstreaming, no/minimal regrets

19. Jessica WhiteheadRegional Climate Extension Specialistc/o South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium287 Meeting St.Charleston, SC 29401O (843) 953-2090M (843) 693-1506jessica.whitehead@scseagrant.org

20. References • National Academies of Science. 2010. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 244 p. • Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 976 p. • Smit, B., and J. Wandel. 2006. Adaptation, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change16: 282-92. • Whitehead, J.C. 2009. Building Scenarios of Adaptive Capacity: Case Studies of Community Water Systems in Central Pennsylvania. PhD. Dissertation in Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park. eTD available: http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-4140/index.html

21. Factors Influencing the Ability to Adapt