Energy for Sustainability

1. Energy for Sustainability Transportation Energy and Efficient Vehicles

2. Transportation and Energy Transportation Energy Trends Vehicle technologies and efficiency HEV, BEV, FCEV Alternative fuels Biofuels Land Use and Transportation Compact, mixed-use development Transit oriented development Anti-sprawl urban growth boundaries Urban Heat Island

3. Transportation Energy Trends U.S. Transportation: 28% of total energy (2005), 25% (1975). Transportation consumes 68% of the U.S. petroleum, 55% of world oil. Transportation relies almost exclusively on oil: 96% of transportation energy came from oil in 2005. Natural gas (3%) pumps natural gas pipelines. Transportation contributes 32% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2005. Transportation is the primary source of urban air pollution, including in the U.S. 82% of carbon monoxide emissions, and 56% and 42% respectively of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, which combine to form urban smog.

4. More Transportation Trends What if the oil-intensive U.S. patterns of transportation, dominated by personal vehicles, are adopted by developing countries, like China? Oil markets, GHG emissions, and urban air pollution? There are about 800 million vehicles in the world today and that number could grow to 3.25 million by 2050, led by China and India, each of which now has a middle class population exceeding the total U.S. population. Transportation energy consumption data include operating energy to fuel transport of people and materials. However, like building energy use data, they do not include the embodied energy required for the construction and maintenance of the infrastructure of roads, parking lots, airports, and rail, with its energy intensive concrete, asphalt, and steel.

5. Growth of U.S. Vehicles per 1000 People, 1900-2002, with 2002 values for selected countries and regions.

7. NRDC Vision: Eliminate Gasoline by 2050 Smart growth to reduce VMT Vehicle efficiency Biofuels

8. U.S. Transportation Energy by Mode, 2004

11. U.S. Transportation Petroleum

12. Highway energy by mode

13. U.S. Passenger Travel Intensity, 2004

15. Personal vehicles: our oil fix Congestion

16. Vehicle Types Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) Otto cycle gasoline engine Flex-fuel Otto cycle takes up to E-85 biofuel Diesel engine Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) All Electric Vehicle (BEV) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV)

18. Diesel and Flex-fuel Engines Diesel vehicles: The diesel engine differs from the Otto gasoline engine in that it takes air into the cylinder and compresses it, then injects distillate (diesel) fuel. The higher compression ratio (piston downstroke to upstroke volume) of the diesel engine (about 15 or 20:1 compared to 8 or 10:1 for the Otto cycle) heats the compressed air hot enough to ignite the fuel without a spark, driving the piston downward and turning the crankshaft. European diesel sales  U.S. next?

19. Clean diesel: Volkswagon, Daimler BlueTec System

20. Flex-fuel gasoline/biofuel vehicles The fuel may contain anywhere from zero to 85% ethanol (E85) Ethanol contains more oxygen than gasoline. The vehicles come equipped with an oxygen sensor which determines the amount of ethanol in the fuel at any time. It provides this information to the onboard computer, which then adjusts the engine to maximize efficiency and performance. Cost: <$100/vehicle 7-8 million on the road; ~1 million sold each year

21. Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Series

22. Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Parallel

23. Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Parallel-Series

24. U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales, 2000–2007 70% Toyota, 4.7% U.S. car sales

25. Big Hybrids boom over next decade? By 2010, 5-6% of all cars sold in America will be HEVs, assuming current oil prices (ABI Research & Automotive Technology Research Group). By 2011, about 35 HEV models will be on the market, with that number exceeding 50 in 2012 (J.D. Power). By 2015, HEVs will make up 3% of the total U.S. light vehicle market (J.D. Power). By 2015, HEVs will make up 80% of the U.S. market (Booz Allen Hamilton). By 2025, HEVs will account for 1.5 million vehicles or a 7% market share (U.S. EIA). By 2030, HEVS will be 30% of the U.S. new car market (ExxonMobil).

27. Driven by higher fuel cost

28. Efficiency: U.S. CAFE Standards & Sales

29. Efficiency Standards around the World

30. U.S. Air Pollutant Emission Rates

31. California Std (+12 states) U.S. Standard

32. Vehicle GHG Score

33. California AB 1493 Pavley Act 30% reduction in vehicle GHG emissions by 2016 with phase-in starting 2009 15 states poised to adopt California standard when approved by EPA Request for waiver of preemption under CAA denied by EPA in December 2007 CA and other states taking EPA to court Supreme Court 2007 Massachusetts v. EPA decision requiring EPA to consider CO2 as air pollutant will influence this debate

34. Emerging Technologies: Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)

35. Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle:simply add an extra battery bank

36. Retrofit packages: Hymotion

37. PHEV offer certain advantages With greater use of the electric drive, the vehicle uses less gasoline and is more efficient than conventional HEV on a mpg of gasoline basis. Some PHEV Prius retrofits have achieved 100 mpg over 1000 miles of travel. With greater use of the electric drive in city driving, the PHEV is a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) that can reduce emissions and improve urban air quality.

38. Electric Drive Vehicles:Gas-equivalent “Price per Gallon” and CO2 Emissions One-quarter the cost of gasoline (at 10¢/kWh, $3/gal) One-half the CO2 emissions as gasoline (at average U.S. electricity sources: 52% coal)

39. Where do you get the electricity? Vehicles charged at night by grid power during off-peak hours Plug-in Vehicles can enhance Distributed Renewable Generation Your PV garage roof is your filling station Night-time demand provides a market for grid wind power or other intermittent generation.

40. The PV Garage could easily charge a vehicle for 30-45 all-electric miles per day

41. All Electric Vehicles

42. The Tesla Roadster

43. What about grid capacity to charge vehicles? Current electric capacity in California could supply 40% of VMT

44. Vehicles-to-Grid (V2G) Electricity Storage A large fleet of Plug-in Hybrids and/or all Electric Vehicles enable a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power storage system. Batteries in electric vehicles (charged primarily at night) can provide a bank of electricity storage for the grid when they are parked and plugged in at parking ramps and lots during the day when peak power is needed.

45. A vehicle-to-grid (V2G) system would require careful control and accounting to manage large numbers of vehicles supplying high-value, quick response grid services

46. Distant dream or sooner than most think? Rising interest in plug-in hybrids, V2G Austin, Texas: promoting plug-ins and V2G to make better use of wind energy capacity Google: plug-ins and on-site solar http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDjSbWTJbdo&eurl=http://www.google.org/recharge/overview.html

47. Lovins’ Winning the Oil End Game The scenario calls for halving the amount of oil used in the U.S. and substituting alternatives for the other half. By taking critical steps now, the U.S. could save as much oil as it gets from the Persian Gulf by 2015; set the stage by 2025 for the option of transitioning to a hydrogen economy (what Lovins refers to as the “checkmate move in the Oil Endgame); and have a flourishing economy without oil by 2050.

48. Hypercar Revolution Light-weight, composite material, aerodynamic hybrid: 66 mpg

49. The four integrated steps include: Doubling the efficiency of using oil, primarily through ultralight vehicle design Applying creative business models and public policies for adoption of superefficient vehicles. Providing another one-fourth of U.S. oil needs by a major domestic biofuels industry. Substituting natural gas for oil using gas saved by profitable efficiency techniques that could save half of the projected 2025 use of natural gas.