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Adaptive Capacity of Uruguayan Coast Fishermen to Hydroclimatic Variability

Presentation on relationships between estuarine front, ENSO-related variability, and fisheries resources. Describes adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and sustainability of the coastal fishery system. Discusses anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability, including processes, stakeholders, and outcomes. Concludes with adaptation strategies for ENSO events.

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Adaptive Capacity of Uruguayan Coast Fishermen to Hydroclimatic Variability

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  1. ADAPTIVE CAPACITYof FISHERMEN of the URUGUAYAN COAST of the RIO de la PLATA, to HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILTY and OTHER STRESSORS Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva andJ Verocai DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGIA - OCEANOLOGIA Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay

  2. THIS PRESENTATION AIMS TO DESCRIBE 1: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN • ESTUARINE FRONT (EF) • ENSO-RELATED VARIABILITY • FISHERIES RESOURCE • ARTISANAL FISHERIES WITHIN THE E.F. 2: THE • ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • CURRENT VULNERABILITY • SUSTAINABILITY OF THE COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

  3. ESTUARINE FRONT OF THE RIO DE LA PLATA

  4. THE PROBLEM • An artisanal fleet exploits fisheries a few miles off the Uruguayan coast (in the estuarine front zone (EF) of the Río de la Plata (FIG. 1) • The location of the EF (therefore the accesibility of exploited resources) depends on ENSO-related variability of the river flow • Artisanal fishermen are highly vulnerable to both climate and non-climate constraints (regional economic crisis since 2001) • Coastal community has low adaptive capacity

  5. Figure 1. Estuarine Front location • a) Strong La Niña event(summer 99-2000) • Neutral - Typical • Moderate El Niño (winter 1987) • d) Strong El Niño (Spring / Summer 2002 – 2003)

  6. Evolution of SST & Salinty at Montevideo: ENSO events1998-2000

  7. Extreme river-ward location of the EF (yellow): La Niña event (March 2000)

  8. Seaward location of the EF (yellow):El Niño (October 2002)

  9. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: SOCIAL

  10. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ECONOMIC

  11. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ENVIRONMENTAL

  12. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL

  13. ANATOMY of the ADAPTATION to CLIMATE CHANGE & VARIABILITY

  14. 1) WHAT IS ADAPTATION ? • Process by which stakeholders involved in the Coastal Fishery System reduce the adverse effects of climate on their livelihood. • This Process involves any passive, reactive or anticipatory adjustment of behavior and economic structure in order to increase sustainability and reduce vulnerability to climate change, variability and weather / climate extremes. (modified from Burton,1992; Smit, 1993; Smith, 1993; Stakhiv, 1993)

  15. 2) ADAPT TO WHAT ? CLIMATIC STIMULI: ENS0 VARIABILITY 3) WHO ADAPTS ? COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

  16. 4) HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ? • THROUGH PROCESSES: • EXTERNAL FORCINGS (RIVER FLOW CHANGES) AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE ESTUARINE FRONT VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF MAIN RESOURCE (CROAKER)->FISHERMEN MIGRATION • OUTCOME: THIS EXAMPLE OF AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION HAS BEING SUCCESFUL UNTIL 2002

  17. 5) HOW GOOD IS ADAPTATION ? • COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS

  18. Long-term Fishermen Gross Income (from October (1) to September (12)

  19. Min Average Max Average Daily fishing sortiesAverage weight of boxes (1 = 23 Kg)Fishing period 1998-99 boxes 57 60 50 40 39 36 35 40 32 31 30 19 20 10 0 13 19 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-31 Clusters

  20. Catch level max fishing period 98-99 Catch level low fishing period 98-99 Pajas Blancas´Fishing ScenariosFleet = 30 boatsFishing period = 4 months (rows 1,2,3); 3 months (4,5,6) ; 2 months (7,8,9) Days of effective fishing: ( 17 day/month (1,4,7); 12 d/m (2,5,8); 8 d/m (3,6,9)PerformanceBoxes/performance % boats # boatshigh46 boxes/day23 6.9 moderate 38 boxes/day59 17.7 low 26 boxes/day18 5.4 Scenarios, boat productivity, fishing period and days 1800 1600 1400 1200 tons 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

  21. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL) OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXESMODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 20 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT 25000 20000 15000 Boxes 10000 5000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 Obs Number of fishing sorties (days) Model

  22. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL) OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXESMODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 25 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT 25000 20000 15000 Boxes 10000 5000 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 Number of fishing sorties (days) Obs Model

  23. Sc 1 - 31 average boxes with 15 boats Sc 2 – Fishing period 98-99 Sc 3 - 40 average boxes with 31 boats “Pajas Blancas” Fishing Scenarios Sc 1 Log IB Sc 2 boxes Sc 3 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 Sortied days

  24. Evolution of Salinty: El Niño 2002

  25. CONCLUSIONS about ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ENSO EVENTS ARE RECURRENT AND ONCE SST ANOMALIES ARE KNOWN, ADAPTATION MEASURES SHOULD START • EARLY WARNING IS POSIBLE A FEW MONTHS BEFORE • PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES INVOLVING SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND FISHERMEN PARTICIPATION ARE NEEDED TO ALLOW ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT • DIALOG AND COMMUNICATION NEED TO BE ENHANCED

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