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The Greenland Physics Problem

This project focuses on assessing the long-term economical viability of Summit Station in Greenland, supporting its transportation logistics needs, and analyzing operational considerations, energy requirements, and environmental impact. The study includes evaluating emissions from transportation, renewable on-site generation, and uncertainties capture for future research needs.

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The Greenland Physics Problem

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  1. The Greenland Physics Problem Diego Klabjan & YueGeng Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University

  2. Agenda • Project overview • Model developed • Current study • Issues • Next steps

  3. Project Overview Scope Deliverables Milestones

  4. Scope • Assess long term economical viability of Summit • Supporting transportation logistics needs • Operational considerations at Summit • Energy requirements • Environmental impact • Emissions from transportation • Renewable on-site generation

  5. Capture Uncertainties • Future research needs at Summit • Logistics costs • Fuel • Availability of transportation modes • Traverse • Commercial access

  6. Deliverables • A tool to analyze scenarios • Cost • Emissions • Other KPIs • Given a possible scenario • Determine by means of optimization logistics requirements and expenses • Trade-off between cost and emissions

  7. Major Milestones

  8. Model Data Model Assumptions

  9. Completed Work: Data • Obtained prior year operational and logistics data • Vehicle availability • LC-130 • Vessels • Shipments in past years • Personnel activity • Aggregated level • Daily fuel consumption

  10. Completed Work: Model • Given • Shipping requirements • Availability and delivery dates • Available transportation resources (vehicles) • Fuel requirements at Summit • Determine • Date of vehicle sent • Goods transported by each vehicle

  11. Time (Days/Weeks) LC-130 from Scotia on day 8 arrive Kanger on day 9 Inventory left from previous day Vessel from VA Beach on day 2 arriving to Kanger on day 32 Time window for shipment A at origin Shipment A Location in the US 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … Kanger 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … Summit … Time window for shipment A at destination Locations Aggregate by week Shipment A

  12. Validation/Calibration • Representative data from 2005-2009 • Data from 2008 most complete • Includes all shipments • No description, but weight and volume • Limited vessel data • Personnel data at aggregated level • Batches arriving and leaving Summit

  13. Assumptions • Final destinations at various locations • Can arbitrarily be consolidated • Four vehicle types considered • LC-130, LC-5, Twin Otter, and vessels • Reverse logistics not considered • Our task • No volume constraints • Feasibility of vehicles ‘guessed’

  14. Assumptions • Fuel required only due to personnel • Aggregation level of shipments • Fuel • Personnel • Can be transported by vessel or aircraft • Everything else • Lead time of 30 days for vessel

  15. Study Results Data Issues

  16. 2008 Snapshot • PRIMARY NODES • Kangerlussuaq • Summit Station • Thule Air Base • Remote Sites… Field Number of flights to Thule: 6 Number of vessels to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 22 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 2 Number of flights to Kanger: 23

  17. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights to Thule: 1 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 5

  18. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 7 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 7

  19. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels July to September Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 1 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 4

  20. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels October to December No shipments Currently not considering traverse Field Field

  21. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 4 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 9 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 5 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 12 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 16

  22. Minimize Only No. Vehicles January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 1 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 1

  23. Minimize Only No. Vehicles April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Ilulissat 2 Kanger to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 6 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 10

  24. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles July to September Flights to other locations: Thule to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 8

  25. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles October to December No shipments Field Field

  26. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Kanger to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 8 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 7 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 19 (LC-5)

  27. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 2 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 2

  28. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 8 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 9

  29. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels July to September Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 5

  30. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels October to December No shipments Field Field

  31. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 10 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 16 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 16

  32. Summary for 2008

  33. Current Vehicle Setting

  34. Front-end Interface • Future expositions in Google Maps • Already implemented them • Manually feeding a solution • Need to integrate with the analytics module • Do not have access to a GIS system

  35. Missing or Incomplete Data • Operating cost of LC-5 and LC-130 • Payload of vessels • Equipment that requires fuel consumption at Summit • Block time between various locations • Baseload daily fuel consumption at Summit • Fuel consumption per person

  36. Missing or Incomplete Data • Special requirements for shipments on particular vehicles • Large equipment can be transported only on particular vehicles • What is the flexibility in terms of the shipment and delivery dates • Flight information available only for Scotia to Summit via Kanger • Need for other locations

  37. Issues and Next Steps Issues Next steps

  38. High Level Understanding of the Model • Available vehicles/modes of transportation • Shipping requirements • Time based (shipping and delivery windows) • Weight and volume • Special attention to fuel • Aggregation from day to week or month

  39. Open Items • Is the delivery date in CST reliable? • Use of traverse in the future • CST considers many additional locations • Transport of fuel and its use at Summit • More granular personnel data • Their flexibility • Duration of stay

  40. Immediate Actions • Settle data issues and requirements • Incorporate reverse logistics • Adjust the model • Gather data • Capture emissions • From transportation • From operations at Summit • As a function of fuel and landings/take-offs

  41. Perpetual Efforts • Modeling future scenarios • How to estimate future shipments? • Not just volume, but also their timing • How many personnel in the future? • Can we anticipate the per month requirement? • Hard to forecast due to limited historical data • Availability of future modes of transportation • Is it going to be the same old story?

  42. Perpetual Efforts • Incorporate KPI • Pounds of cargo moved (O-D) • Number of personnel moved (O-D) • Hourly airlift costs • Ship costs per pound • Volume of fuel consumed for flights and infrastructure • Annual researcher days supported • Energy consumption at Summit

  43. Perpetual Efforts • Incorporate traverse • Handle it as what-if • With or without it • Have cost-benefit analyses • How to model a possible engineering/technological break through?

  44. Future Milestones • On-track

  45. Suggestions • Go-to person at NSF • Anticipated needs of Summit • Understanding of NSF’s mission • Someone from CPS besides Sandy?

  46. Morals • Garbage in, garbage out! • If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it! • The study will be as good as the data available • We must all be comfortable in all of the assumptions and the team members!

  47. Acknowledgments • Indispensible help from Sandy Starkweather Support Manager CPS Mike Dover Project Developer Critigen Jay Burnside a.k.a. Traverse Guru

  48. Acknowledgments • Without them we would not be sitting here Pat Haggerty Renee D. Crain Simon N. Stephenson

  49. Almost as North as Summit

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