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TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process Tools Part 2: The FRT An overview for TOC Experts. Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast! Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast! Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast!. Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class?.

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Tocico conference 2009 fast thinking process tools part 2 the frt an overview for toc experts l.jpg

TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process ToolsPart 2: The FRTAn overview for TOC Experts

Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast!

Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast!

Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast!

Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class?

Presented By: James R. HoltProfessor, Washington State UniversityDate: June, 2009


Why do we have frts l.jpg
Why do we have FRTs?

  • Validate the Injection will take us in the direction we want to go

  • Find the sufficiency (or insufficiency) of our solution (Additional Injections)

  • Surface Negative Branch Reservations

  • Attach the benefits of the injection to Tactic and Strategic objectives.

  • Establish Cooperation/Buy-in from others.

  • Substantiate the effect of needed Policy changes


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Origin of the FRT

  • The Origin of the FRT is the Breakthrough Injection.

  • Generally, it takes more than one Breakthrough.

  • The Evaporating Cloud is the tool we use to surface the erroneous assumption (or the assumption we choose to attack) and to find a creative Injection.

  • Before discussing the Evaporating Cloud, let’s discuss the Categories of Legitimate Reservation to make sure our logic is sufficiently dry (not held together with saliva).

All logic errors can be tracked back to insufficient use of theCategories of Legitimate Reservation


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Categories of Legitimate Reservation

First: Clarity

Second: Entity Existence Causality

Third Cause Insufficiency Additional Cause Cause Reversal Predicted Effect Tautology

CLRs => Discovery!

The Effect

The Cause

This simple set of rules which compiles all the key elements necessary and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic is one of Eliyhau M. Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking.

While there are a long list of types of faulty arguments associated with debate and rhetoric, they refer mostly to argument and negotiation.

The Categories of Legitimate Reservation apply to finding the Truth.


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Categories of Legitimate Reservation: CLR – Clarity

Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity for scrutiny often missed when voiced only.

A School only for Pretty Girls? Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls? Or, just a very Little School? Could it be a school for one particular Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)? Are there boys there too? Does the building look particularly nice? What is the enrollment?

This is a pretty little girls school

This is a small school for girls


Clr entity existence l.jpg
CLR – Entity Existence

The exterior appearance of the car doesn’t matter

A brand new Lexus costs $15,000

There is free maintenance for 100,000 miles

Operating costs of the car are of little concern

Entity Existence Reservation: “Do these things really exist in your world?”


Clr causality l.jpg
CLR – Causality

I become a millionaire

I need a car

I need pants like Joe’s

I want to be different

My roommate has a car

I buy stock

Causality: Show me how the parts in the Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from the Cause (from the tail).

The Effect

I receive 20% interest

I open a Savings Account

The Cause

There are problems with each one.


Clr cause insufficiency l.jpg
CLR – Cause Insufficiency

My Group Project goes well

My Project goes well

Insufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well.

I get excellent grades in Class

Insufficiency Reservation: Your Group needs to complete a good Group Project too.

I turn-in good homework


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CLR – (More on Insufficiency)

Not without the Triangle!

Is it sufficient?


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CLR – Additional Cause

Additional Cause Reservation:

Additional Cause Reservation:

I drive too fast

I carry heavy loads

The “Bow Tie” – Magnitudinal And Connector says, “If two or more of these independent causes occur together, I really don’t get good Gas Mileage!”

I don’t get good Gas Mileage

Ah-Ha! We see at least one area were improvement is possible.

My Truck is large


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CLR – Cause Reversal

My Garage is too small.

I can’t get my car in the Garage.

My Garage is full of stuff

My Garage is full of stuff.

My Garage is too small.

The small Garage didn’t cause all the stuff in the Garage.


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CLR – Predicted Effect

Predicted Effect Reservation: If our income is too low, I would expect to see most people with the same income unable to pay their bills.

Others with the same income would not be able to pay their bills

And yet, I see lots of people with the same or less income paying their bills just fine.

We have too many bills

We buy too many things that many others don’t need

Many others with same or less income do pay their bills

Discovery Happens!

We don’t

have enough

money

to pay our

bills

Our Income

is too

low


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CLR-Tautology ReservationA Too Tight a Logical Loop

11. A Male and Female Chicken can produce a fertile Egg

14. There is a Male Chicken

OR

20. There is a fertile Egg

16. There is a Female Chicken

Tautology is the Most Frequent Logical Error.

Too Tight a Logic Loop

10. There is a Chicken

20. There is an Egg

A Longer Logical LoopResolves the Age Old Question

But, maybe there were two eggs first!


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CLR – TautologyThe Cause is the Excuse

  • Whenever you hear, a BECAUSE, that is the same as the Effect you have a Tautology (bad logic).

Alert #1 

Most Frequent Logical Error.

The Beavers lost the game

  • The Circular Logic of the Cause is accepted because of the Effect.

The Effect

The Beavers are a lousy team.

The Cause

  • “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?”

  • “Because, they lost the game didn’t they!”


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CLR – TautologyThe Cause is Hard to Define

  • When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, we need to dig further.

Alert #2 

Most Frequent Logical Error.

  • The Circular Logic of the Tautology comes from a Cause which is often abstract; difficult to determine, define or quantify.

  • So, too often the Cause is not challenged.

  • And, the undefined Cause is accepted because of the Effect.

The Beavers lost the game

The Beavers are a lousy team.

  • To resolve the Tautology, the Cause needs to be something that can be determined and challenged; Not an Abstract Concept.

  • In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that mean? We need another substantial meaning.


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CLR – Tautology: Searching For An Alternate Connection

The Beavers are depressed by their mistakes

The Beavers face an easy team

People feel bad when they make dumb mistakes

The Beavers are perceived as a lousy team.

The Beavers play a lousy game

The Beavers are in a slump

The Beavers don’t execute well

The Beavers don’t prepare well for games

They are not thinking clearly

Most Frequent Logical Error.

The Beavers lost the game

The Beavers are a lousy team.

The Beavers may not be so bad after all.

Injection: The Beavers learn from dumb mistakes


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How Do Tautologies Happen?

They are obstinate

They are obstinate

I push them harder

I push them hard

They still don’t do it

I push them

Most Frequent Logical Error.

Do we every stop to think, “Why?” Why don’t people do what they are told?

Hum?

They don’t do it

I tell them what to do


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Cause for the Tautology Knee Jerk Reaction

In General, the most common error in “Jumping to Conclusions” is the Tautology!

Hum?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?

Alert #3 

Most Frequent Logical Error.

Sometimes a Tautology is a single statement.

They are Muslims

He won’t help us

He is Black

She’s a Woman

He is a jerk

Men!

They are Poor

They are Part of Management!

He’s a Polack


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Scrutinize the ‘Knee Jerk’

When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)…

When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT…

When the ABSTRACT is DEROGITORY …

Tautology Reservation is Inevitable!

  • Basic Assumptions of The Theory of Constraints:

Every action is logical (within the environment and in accordance with the individual’s understanding of their ability to change the environment)

All People Think

All People are Good

Alerts to Tautology Errors:

Emotion is evidence of passionate, logical thinking! Don’t let a Tautology waste it.


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Correcting a Tautology Error

Management is Incompetent

Management Ignores me

=>

Management Doesn’t Respond

I don’t get what I need

I’m important

I do a good job

I am not the system’s problem

Management Doesn’t Listen

Management must be dealing with some very serious needs

I’m glad it’s not me!

They are Part of Management!

Why Should they?

Management’s Role is to oversee the systemic performance


The evaporating cloud human behavior processes l.jpg
The Evaporating Cloud:Human Behavior Processes

The Goal: CooperationThe Measure: Success of the groupThe Constraint: Conflict

  • The other party is starting to be obnoxious

  • I spend time justifying my side of the argument

  • I feel I must attack the other side’s opinion (debate)

  • I’m becoming as stubborn as the the other side

  • The conflict will probably be resolved by force!

“Life is a Tug of War”


Human behavior type processes l.jpg

Tug of War

Human Behavior Type Processes

The Problem: Conflict

The Paradigm Shift: Every person is Right (there is no logical conflict), based upon each person’s understanding of the situation and their perception of their ability to change it.

B. Appreciate the other side

D. Give-in to the other side

A. Have successful Relationships

C. Be respected

D’. Don’t Give-in to the other side


Solution check the underlying assumptions l.jpg

Assumption: I’m the only one who knows what is right.

Assumption: My Boss disagrees with what is right.

Solution: Check the Underlying Assumptions

My boss is incompetent.

The boss’ personality and management style irritates some employees.

  • Implications:

  • I haven’t been telling my boss what is important.

  • I don’t understand my boss’ world.

B. I keep my Job

D. I put up with my Boss

A. I contribute to our Organization

Injection: I have good communication with my boss.

C. I do what I think is right

D’. I don’t put up with my Boss


Evaporating the cloud l.jpg
Evaporating the Cloud

  • Evaporating the Cloud is the process of making the Assumptions that bind us to the conflict no longer valid. The Conflict Evaporates.

  • Finding the Assumptions is sometimes easy: In order to have (Head) I must have (Tail) because … (Fill in the blank).

  • Finding a Breakthrough injection may be hard.

    • Because the breakthrough injection can’t be done.

    • Really? Why?

    • Because, …. If I do this, then that will occur!

    • Sounds like an NBR or another EC!


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How to proceed?

  • First, I strongly suggest you identify the five (5 or more) assumptions for each arrow in your Core Conflict Cloud, so you have several targets.

  • Second, Try the absurd approach, "There is absolutely no way to __ without __ Since __ Blocks you every step of the way,” filling in the blanks at each arrow.

  • Third, a reference environment helps. "In order eat, I must have money because I pay for my food." Where are all the places that I can go and eat or situations where I don't have to pay to eat? Jail, Church Buffet, Military Chow Line, Mom's ....


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Impossible Injection? (Jump to 32)

  • Fourth, DON'T DISCARD AN IMPOSSIBLE INJECTION! - Most breakthrough injections come as you dig deeper. - Often you come up with an injection and quickly discard it because it is impossible in your environment. - DON'T DO THAT! If it is impossible, it’s just harder to do. - It just means there is some conflict associated with your injection that caused you to give up. - Record the impossible injection the same as you would in a brain storming session. - Hey, you could have five or more impossible injections. No problem. Just pick one that looks potentially possible and dig deeper. That is, put the impossible injection at the D position of a new cloud. Let D' be the reason you can't do it. And carry on to break that new cloud.


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Dealing with the Impossible

  • Example:

  • A. Produce high-performance fighter aircraft

  • B. Light weight

  • C. Affordable

  • D. Made from Composites

  • D'. Made from Aluminum

  • Assumption C<-D’: High Temp Cure is a problem for fabrication and for repair (Move to D).


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Driving Down into the Cloud

  • Deeper Example:

  • A. Excellent aircraft material

  • B. Durable

  • C. Withstand high variations in temperature

  • D. Low Cure Temp composites

  • D'. High Cure Temp composites

  • Assumption C<-D’: Only High Temp Cure has high glass transition point (Move to D).


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Closer to a Solution

  • A. Practical Fighter

  • B. Structure suitable for all temp ranges

  • C. Field repairable

  • D. High glass transition point

  • D'. Low glass transition point

  • Assumption C<-D’: The only way to field cure high temperature resin is with a electron beam gun (Move to D).


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Possible Injections

  • A. Practical Fighter

  • B. Repairable

  • C. Things we Know

  • D. Use Electron Beam Gun

  • D' Not use Electron beam gun

  • Assumption C<-D’: We are not in Star Trek here.

  • Injection: We remove the door from the microwave in the NCO Club and nuke the daylights out of the composite resin. We can do this whenever we have to patch a hole in a composite wing in the field.

  • Hey mon, this may not work but at least we know where we are trying to go and can focus basic research.


A basic core conflict shows avenues for basic research l.jpg

Use an alternative beam source

Create a throw-away Fighter

Develop a new resin that is self binding (Velcro Resin)

Use things that others know that we don’t

Discover Impossible Technology

A Basic Core Conflict Shows Avenues for Basic Research

D. Use Electron Beam Gun

B. Repairable

A Practical Fighter

D1’. Don’t use an Electron Beam Gun

C. Things we know


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A Case for an FRT:A Teenager’s World

I always get into trouble

I don’t make good decisions

I never get to do what I want

I’m bored

My life offers little challenge

I am controlled by others

I’m not dependable

I’m unpredictable

I am not obedient

I rebel

I am easily bored

I am overwhelmed

I’m demanding

I don’t plan too well

I am excitement bound!

I am short sited

I’m easily distracted

Too much busy work


Building the order l.jpg
Building the Order

B1. Have some fun

A1. Grow safely

Jeopardy: Staying Home is no fun!

Jeopardy: Going out with stranger can be unsafe.

C1. Be safe

D1’. Don’t go out with stranger

Story line: You have a terrible fight with Mom. You want to go out with a strange boy you just met. He looks so COOL!

Reads logically: In order to (Head) I must have (Tail)

No conflict between B and C. Clear Conflict between D and D1.

3. Why I want what want!

1. What do I want?

5. Why we are still talking about this!

D1. Go out with stranger

4. Why they want what they want!

2. What do they want?


Communicating order l.jpg
Communicating Order

B1. Have some fun

A1. Grow safely

C1. Be safe

D1’. Don’t go out with stranger

4. The mutually recognized need I have

5. What I want to do to fill that need

D1. Go out with stranger

1. Our Mutual Goal!

2. What the other side wants for us

3. What the other side is asking for.


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Practice on Jeopardy

Story line: A teenage boy doesn’t appreciate his mother

What is the Jeopardy between D and C?

B1. Give Thanks

D1. Show appreciation

A1. Mature

D1’. Be macho (independent)

C1. Self reliant


Practice on jeopardy36 l.jpg
Practice on Jeopardy

Reword D1:

Does this give us a better understanding of the Conflict?

B1. Give Thanks

D1. Show appreciation

D1. Show dependence

A1. Mature

D1’. Be macho (independent)

C1. Self reliant


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A Three-Cloud on Teenagers

D1

Give in

B2 Cooperate

D2

Expect Reliability

B1 Obedient

B3 Responsible

D3

Tolerate boredom

A1 Make good decisions

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A2 Develop responsibility

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

A3 Be a Good Kid

Not D

Be treated as a child

Not D3

Have Fun

C1 Independent

Not D1

Rebel

C3 Enjoy Life

Not D2

Tolerate unreliability

C2 Autonomous


Assumptions for the teenager cloud l.jpg

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

Not D

Be treated as a child

Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud

  • Let’s consider our earlier conflict and surface some assumptions.

  • Good CitizenGood Decisions BECAUSE:

    • Making your own decisions is part of citizenship

    • Poor decisions are expensive

    • Experimenting can get you in deep trouble

    • Good citizens don’t do dumb things


Assumptions for the teenager cloud39 l.jpg

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

Not D

Be treated as a child

Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud

  • Good DecisionsAdult BECAUSE:

    • Youth need to be challenged to grow

    • Only adults are free to make choices

    • Only adults can make good decisions

    • Choices with limits are really not free choices


Assumptions for the teenager cloud40 l.jpg

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

Not D

Be treated as a child

Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud

  • Good CitizenProtection BECAUSE:

    • There are too many devastating alternatives

    • Don’t want youth to be hurt

    • One mistake in the wrong place is too many

    • There are lots of bad things out there


Assumptions for the teenager cloud41 l.jpg

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

Not D

Be treated as a child

Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud

  • ProtectionChild BECAUSE:

    • Youth often are not aware of the dangers

    • Adults know better

    • Youth can’t learn

    • Youth make short sighted choices

    • Youth can’t imagine the consequences of some bad choices (we protected them to now)


Assumptions for the teenager cloud42 l.jpg

B

Learn to make good decisions

D

Be treated as an adult

A

Develop into a good citizen

C

Be protected from serious harm

Not D

Be treated as a child

Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud

Hum? Is it better to build a fence at the top of the Cliff?Or, Keep an ambulance at the bottom of the Cliff?Hum?

  • AdultChild BECAUSE:

    • Youth can’t make decisions about adult things

    • Children are easily confused with conflicting directions

    • Adults send mixed messages

    • “Am I a grown-up or not?”


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A Base to Start the CRT

164 Youth will push the envelope (try adult things too soon)

162 Youth will reject responsibility and parental advice

160 Youth are not sure where they stand

145 There is pressure to be treated as an adult

151 Youth can’t decide on their own which things are Adult things (can’t see danger down the road)

150 There is pressure to be treated as a child

125 Youth need to be challenged to make tough decisions

140 Youth often are not aware of dangers around them

135 We need protection from serious harm

130 We need to learn to make good decisions

120 There are too many devastating experiences that could take a youth down

110 Making our own decisions is part of citizenship

100 We want to Become a good citizen


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Invalidating Assumptions Finding the Injection

  • Sometimes, just exposing (verbalizing) the assumption is enough to find the error.

  • Question the assumption, “Why does it have to exist? Should it continue to exist?” The assumption may be weak under the spotlight.

  • Consider some ‘better management practices’ that we are not doing to see if there are already solutions which have already eliminated this assumption.

  • Consider your TOC Experience (IT’S NOT LUCK and others)

  • Have you heard of others who found the same assumption negative and tried to break it?

  • Study Strategy and Tactic Trees (www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em534/)


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Challenging Assumptions

  • Sometimes the reason an assumption exists is simply a deeper assumption. Keep asking “Why?”

  • Find a Reference Environment (different than yours) where “In order to (tip of the arrow), I must have (tail of the arrow)” holds, but the assumption doesn’t.

    To Eat  Have Money (I must have money)

    • Hum? If I go to jail, I get free food!

    • Hum? Church Picnic, Grandmas, Army, ...

  • Absurdities work very well. “Its impossible to eat without money!” Keep trying them.


  • Good citizen good decisions l.jpg

    Assumptions

    Making your own decisions is part of citizenship

    Poor decisions are expensive

    Experimenting can get you in deep trouble

    Don’t do dumb things

    Injections

    Youth don’t need to be good citizens

    They don’t play where they can’t afford it

    The zone of experimentation is restricted (Safe Zone)

    Do smart things

    Good CitizenGood Decisions

    A direct opposite is ‘sort of’ an injection. But, its not a breakthrough.


    Good decisions treat as adult l.jpg

    Assumptions

    Youth need to be challenged to grow

    Only adults are free to make choices

    Choices with limits are really not free choices

    Injections

    There are safe challenges that provide growth

    Kids make good choices.

    Real choices in safe situations can teach good things.

    Good DecisionsTreat AsAdult


    Good citizen protect from harm l.jpg

    Assumptions

    Too many devastating alternatives

    Don’t want youth to be hurt

    One mistake in the wrong place is too many

    Lots of things can hurt you

    Injections

    Restrict to safe alternatives

    Allow temporary,minor hurt

    There is a safety buffer

    Restrict to acceptable alternatives

    Good CitizenProtect From Harm


    Protect treat as a child l.jpg

    Assumptions

    Youth often are not aware of the dangers

    Adults know better

    You can’t learn

    Youth make short sighted choices

    Injections

    We have a long history of good communications (talk to youth)

    “Do what I say, not what I do” (I can’t explain why.)

    There are many opportunities to learn

    Youth make amazingly bright choices

    ProtectTreat as a Child


    Treat as adult treat as child l.jpg

    Assumptions

    Youth can’t decide about adult things

    Children are easily confused with conflicting directions

    Adults send a mixed message

    “Am I a grown-up or not?”

    Injections

    Youth are aware of adult things and know when to say away

    Life decisions are clearly right and wrong

    Adults don’t try to push youth too fast nor hold them back too long

    Youth are allowed to mature naturally

    Treat as AdultTreat as Child


    Still can t find an erroneous assumption l.jpg
    Still Can’t Find an Erroneous Assumption?

    • If you can’t find an assumption that is invalid, examine the list of assumptions you have made and just pick the one that you like the least. “The shipping costs per item are less with large batches.”

    • Advice: Often in a cloud, you wantone side and you hate the other side. Try to pick an assumption behind an arrow on your own side first. This may be an easier assumption to invalidate.

    • State an injection that causes your assumption to no longer be valid.“Our shipping costs per item are the same for small or large batches.” (Can’t change cost per truck. Can better determine the load.)

      • We will find out how to do such impossible things later.

      • If you can’t find a solution, just do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.


    Examining a sample core conflict if don t need another example skip to slide 65 l.jpg
    Examining a Sample Core Conflict! (If don’t need another example, skip to slide 65)

    • Here is a long standing core conflict. It is a difficult one. But, when it is well stated the assumptions and injections, when found, will yield great insight and competitive advantage.

    • This is called the Generic Sales Conflict:

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    D. Reduce Prices

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    A<B Assume: More “volume” yields more profit

    Inj. Increase volume of higher throughput margin items while reducing volume of lesser throughput items (higher profit, same volume).

    D. Reduce Prices

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s54 l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    B<D Assume: Customer only cares about price.

    Inj. Our Products offer much more value to the customer at slightly higher prices.

    D. Reduce Prices

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s55 l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    D. Reduce Prices

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices

    A<C Assume: We do not make money on low margin items

    Inj. We use the high volume of low margin items to cover our fixed expenses and can accept lower volumes for much higher margin items


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s56 l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    D. Reduce Prices

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices

    C<D’ Assume: ‘Margin’ is ‘Sales price less Cost per Part’ (typical cost accounting)

    Inj. We sell below cost (use Throughput Accounting) to increase total profit based upon our Capacity Constraint.


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s57 l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    D. Reduce Prices

    C<D’ Assume: We can’t sell at two prices in the same market.

    Inj. We segment the market (airplane tickets)

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthrough s58 l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    B<D Assum: Customer only cares about price

    Inj. Our Products offer more value to the customer at higher prices

    A<B Assum: More volume yields more profit

    Inj. Increase volume of higher throughput margin items while reducing volume of lesser throughput items

    D. Reduce Prices

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    C<D’ Assum: We can’t sell at two prices in the same market.

    Inj. We segment the market (airplane tickets)

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices

    A<C Assum: We do not make money on low margin items

    Inj. We use high volume of low margin items to cover our fixed expenses

    You should recognize these from It’s Not Luck

    C<D’ Assum: Margin is Sales less Cost per Part (typical cost accounting)

    Inj. We sell below cost (use throughput accounting) to increase total profit.


    By examining the assumptions we can find breakthroughs l.jpg
    By examining the Assumptions, we can find Breakthroughs

    B<D Assume: Customer only cares about price

    A<B Assume: More volume yields more profit

    Solve customers problems (value)

    Focus volume on high throughput items

    B. Increase Sales Volume

    D. Reduce Prices

    Super Injection (Strategy) We manage using a Throughput Operating Strategy

    C<D’ Assume: We can’t sell at two prices in the same market.

    A. Successful Sales Organization

    We segment the market

    C. Increase Sales Margins

    D’ Increase Prices

    A<C Assume: We do not make money on low margin items

    C<D’ Assume: Margin is Sales less Cost per Part (typical cost accounting)

    We know throughput values

    We sell high volume below accounted costs to cover fixed expenses


    More on surfacing assumptions l.jpg
    More on Surfacing Assumptions

    • You may need to surface more than five assumptions per arrow. Look for all assumptions, invalid AND valid. You may have to choose a valid assumption and CHANGE IT!

    • Accept all assumptions you can think of, even if YOU know they aren’t really assumptions. The assumptions that you quickly reject may be still blocking others. (Don’t be a lone Jonah—Zealot!)

    • When you surface lots of assumptions, the arrow associated with an assumption can get blurred. That’s OK. We have Focused Brain Storming!


    Comments on injections l.jpg
    Comments on Injections

    • Injections are conditions (sometimes actions) that cause the assumption to no longer exist.

    • You only need one “Hole in the fence.”

    • Injections are new situations that Eliminate the assumption; Erase the the need for the arrow. Evaporate the conflict. The Cloud goes away!

    • Don’t disregard an Injection just because you have heard it or tried it before or you think its too hard or because it could lead to some problems in the future. It still may be the best injection and the bad things coming from it will have to be trimmed in another way. (Future Tools are coming!)


    More on injections l.jpg

    It is easier to find holes in complex systems

    I gain (more) intuition

    I (get better at) surface(ing) assumptions

    I (get better at) surface(ing) Injections

    I surface assumptions

    I surface Injections

    I gain (more) creativity

    More on Injections

    • The better you get at surfacing and finding assumptions, the better you will get at surfacing and finding injections. A Tautology! Do you see now why ‘a cloud a day keeps conflict away’?


    Don t be discouraged l.jpg
    Don’t be Discouraged!

    • Don’t be discouraged by a tough cloud.

    • That means you have a well stated conflict.

    • If you can’t break it, ask your peers why the arrows are absolutely necessary

      • Most probable response is: “Well, it’s not really necessary but we have to do it because … ,” and they will give you the Decision, Policy or Measurement that needs to be changed!


    Eliminating the systemic conflict l.jpg
    Eliminating the Systemic Conflict

    • Finding a breakthrough to a system conflict requires some deep thinking.

    • You can find ideas for injections from many sources.

    • Creativity training helps. TRIZ is a clever tool that can help.

    • Try being an 8 or 10 year old again (Remember, you were just a bit too creative then!)

    • Using the assumptions behind the arrows helps focus your search for discovery.

    • Often, you will need to Drive Down (Be a 2 year old, “Why, Daddy? Why? Why?” again and again.)


    The good and the bad in clouds l.jpg
    The Good and the Bad in Clouds

    Best Targets of Opportunity!

    The good stuff! The Strength of AND!

    The Terrible OR!

    B

    Learn to make good decisions

    D

    Be treated as an adult

    A

    Develop into a good citizen

    C

    Be protected from serious harm

    Not D

    Be treated as a child


    Fast evaporating cloud table l.jpg
    Fast Evaporating Cloud Table

    Arrow

    Assumptions

    Specific Injection

    AB

    AC

    BD

    CD’

    D/D’

    Selected Injection (Strategic Direction):


    Searching for a breakthrough jump to 75 l.jpg
    Searching for a Breakthrough… (jump to 75)

    • Breakthroughs are often blocked by reality.

      • That is, someone knows too much! Verbalize!

      • Knowing too much can also lead to the best injection! It means, “You know the Answer.”

      • “You can’t do that injection because … “

        • Sounds like an assumption behind the injection or a necessary condition! Ah Ha! Another place to find a breakthrough!

    Bottom line: Make Wild Injections and see where it leads (Flying Pigs are OK! They lead to visions, which can be made valid through hard work.)


    Consider our boss employee cloud and learn to drive down l.jpg
    Consider Our Boss-Employee Cloud and learn to Drive Down

    Independent Action

    Right work

    In order to do the Right work, I must take independent action because “I can’t ‘work to the schedule’ when some parts are missing”

    Injection: I create my own work plan!

    Yeah, right! As if that was possible!


    But but but l.jpg
    But, But, But, ...

    Independent Action

    Right work

    I Create my own work Plan

    Right work

    Injection (new need): I create my own work plan!

    Objection: If you create your own work plan, you will interrupt someone else’s work!

    Because, the whole system is planned to a tight schedule!

    Notice: This is a deeper Assumption behind the Arrow! That is good!


    The answer is behind the deeper assumption l.jpg
    The answer is behind the deeper Assumption

    Independent Action

    Right work

    I Create my own work Plan

    Right work

    Objection: If you create your own work plan, you will interrupt someone else’s work! The whole system is planed to a tight schedule!

    Injection:The planned schedule has strategically located buffers to protect against certain variability.


    Often even another layer deeper is needed l.jpg
    Often, even another layer deeper is needed!

    Independent Action

    Right work

    I Create my own work Plan

    Right work

    Schedule strategically located buffers

    Right work

    Injection (new Need): The planned schedule has strategically located buffers to protect against certain variability.

    Objection: Adding buffers will lengthen an already tight schedule! Can’t do that!

    Injection:We have a more aggressive schedule.


    And deeper until better understanding happens l.jpg
    And Deeper Until Better Understanding Happens

    Independent Action

    Right work

    I Create my own work Plan

    Right work

    Schedule strategically located buffers

    Right work

    More Aggressive Schedule

    Right work

    Injection(new need) : We have a more aggressive schedule.

    Objection: We can’t meet the Schedule we have now! We need more time, not less!

    Understanding: We waste our protective safety in our system by ‘peanut buttering’ it all over. Evidence: Individual tasks complete on time 95% of the time!


    Clarity on 95 complete l.jpg

    Then why does the distribution of our completed tasks look like this?

    Safety time is wasted

    Due Date

    Clarity on 95% Complete

    ( Try the Sixes Game: http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em530/Docs/SixesGame.pdf)

    If this is the distribution of probable time to complete a highly variable task, ...

    Due Date


    Well then what is the final injection l.jpg
    Well Then, What is the Final Injection? like this?

    Injection:I create my own work plan!

    Injection:The planned schedule has strategically located buffers to protect against certain variability.

    Injection:We have a more aggressive schedule.

    Super Injection:We implement Critical Chain Scheduling; A New Strategic Direction!


    Get as many injections to your core conflict as you can l.jpg
    Get as Many Injections to Your Core Conflict as You Can like this?

    • Find many injections. (It’s best if you find one from behind each arrow)

    • Each additional injection adds cleverness to your solution.

      • (I’ve found that very often it requires an injection from behind each arrow of the EC to provide a complete FRT)

    • Examine your many injections. Can you formulate from the list a single statement that summarizes the set of Injections? If so, it’s a Super Injection! (also called a Strategic Direction)


    Examine injections closely l.jpg
    Examine Injections Closely like this?

    • Examine your chosen injection.

    • Will the Chosen Injection really evaporate the conflict?

    • Will the Chosen Injection be significantly different than what is happening at the moment?

    • Pick several possible injections. One from each arrow of the Cloud (at least)

    • See if you can summarize all the injections into one statement that synthesizes the intent of all of them; the Super Injection, Strategic Direction.


    Selected injections from each arrow of teenager cloud l.jpg
    Selected Injections From Each Arrow of Teenager Cloud like this?

    • A<B The zone of of experimentation is restricted

    • B<D Safe choices teach good things

    • A>C Allow temporary, minor hurt

    • C<D’ We have a long history of communication (talk to youth)

    • D<>D’ Youth are allowed to mature naturally

    Youth have exciting opportunities to practice making good decisions in a safe and supportive environment


    Starting udes from a teenager s world l.jpg
    Starting UDEs from like this?A Teenager’s World

    I always get into trouble

    I don’t make good decisions

    I never get to do what I want

    I’m bored

    My life offers little challenge

    I am controlled by others

    I’m not dependable

    I’m unpredictable

    I am not obedient

    I rebel

    I am easily bored

    I am overwhelmed

    I’m demanding

    I don’t plan too well

    I am excitement bound!

    I am short sighted

    I’m easily distracted

    Too much busy work


    Regions of the frt l.jpg
    Regions of the FRT like this?

    Good Citizen

    Good Decisions

    Safe

    Region of Less Conflict

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Strategic Direction


    Des from a teenager s world l.jpg
    DEs from A Teenager’s World like this?

    I’m respected

    Good Citizen

    I live an exciting life

    I enjoy the challenges of life

    I’m involved in many good things!

    Good Decisions

    I can envision my future

    I make good choices

    Safe

    I have few worries

    I understand the important parts of life

    I’m predictable

    I can decide my future

    I follow the rules

    I am inventive

    I feel in charge

    Region of Less Conflict

    I know where I’m going

    I feel free to choose

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Specific Injection

    Strategic Direction


    Setting the direction for the frt l.jpg
    Setting the Direction for the FRT like this?

    I’m respected

    Good Citizen

    I live an exciting life

    I enjoy the challenges of life

    I’m involved in many good things!

    Good Decisions

    I can envision my future

    I make good choices

    Safe

    I have few worries

    I understand the important parts of life

    I’m predictable

    I can decide my future

    I follow the rules

    I am inventive

    I know where I’m going

    I feel in charge

    Region of Less Conflict

    Successful, long term communication

    Youth mature at their own rate.

    I feel free to choose

    Temporary, minor hurt is tolerated

    There is a safe zone of restricted experimentation

    Learn from Safe Choices

    Youth have exciting opportunities to practice making good decisions in a safe and supportive environment

    Strategic Direction:


    Good start for the frt l.jpg
    Good Start for the FRT like this?

    I’m respected

    Good Citizen

    I live an exciting life

    I enjoy the challenges of life

    I’m involved in many good things!

    Good Decisions

    I can envision my future

    I make good choices

    Safe

    I have few worries

    I understand the important parts of life

    I’m predictable

    I can decide my future

    I follow the rules

    I am inventive

    I know where I’m going

    I feel in charge

    Region of Less Conflict

    Successful, long term communication

    Youth mature at their own rate.

    I feel free to choose

    Temporary, minor hurt is tolerated

    There is a safe zone of restricted experimentation

    Learn from Safe Choices

    Youth have exciting opportunities to practice making good decisions in a safe and supportive environment

    Strategic Direction:


    Revisiting the crt l.jpg
    Revisiting the CRT ... like this?

    • When you find the assumption you want to invalidate, AND have a corresponding Injection:

      • Revisit your CRT. Insert the selected assumption at the base of the CRT.

      • This erroneous (or valid assumption that needs to be changed) in the CRT is the CORE PROBLEM. This is what you were looking for! YOU FOUND IT!

      • You know it’s invalid; others don’t know that yet.

      • Aren’t you glad you finally found it!


    Your new revised crt looks something like this l.jpg

    Chosen Assumption Included like this?

    Try to build a good solid cross-connection here as soon as you can right above the conflict

    Core Problem

    Your New, Revised CRT looks something like this

    Feed Back Loop

    UDE

    UDE

    Feed Back Loop

    Jeopardy B

    Jeopardy C

    D’

    D

    Assum

    B

    C

    Assum

    A

    Assum

    Assum


    The fast frt structural regions l.jpg
    The Fast FRT Structural Regions like this?

    DEs that show evidence A is achieved or is possible!

    DEs that show evidence B is (or will be) achieved

    A

    DE

    C

    DE

    DE

    B

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Region of Less Conflict

    DE

    DEs that show evidence that the Conflict is reduced

    DEs that show evidence C is or can be achieved

    Inj.

    Inj.

    Inj.

    Inj.

    Strategic Injection


    Slide86 l.jpg

    Good Strategy like this?

    A

    DE

    C

    DE

    DE

    B

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Region of Less Conflict

    DE

    Good Strategy

    Good Strategy

    Accepted Tactics

    Accepted Tactics

    Accepted Tactics

    Insert appropriate new policies and measures as needed.

    New Measures

    New Policies

    Injections

    Plan on expanding your FRT logically into Tactics and Strategy

    Injections

    Injections


    Recognizing inserting policy measurement behavior changes l.jpg

    A like this?

    C

    B

    B

    Region of Less Conflict

    M

    Policy

    Recognizing (inserting) Policy, Measurement, Behavior Changes

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Inj

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Inj

    Inj

    Injection

    Inj


    To insure things go well feedback do it as low as possible in the frt l.jpg

    A like this?

    C

    B

    B

    Region of Less Conflict

    M

    Policy

    To insure things go well, Feedback! Do it as low as possible in the FRT.

    Engineer Feedback from as close to bottom as possible.

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Inj

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Inj

    Inj

    Injection

    Inj


    Look upwards towards your strategic objectives achieving them is great for buy in l.jpg

    SO like this?

    SO

    SO

    INJ

    B

    M

    Policy

    Look upwards towards Your Strategic Objectives. Achieving Them is Great for Buy-In!

    A

    DE

    DE

    C

    B

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Region of Less Conflict

    Inj

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Inj

    Inj

    Injection

    Inj


    Improving on the solution nbr l.jpg
    Improving on the Solution-NBR like this?

    • The FRT is a Strategic View of the future!

      • Stand on the Roof of your home and dream of landscaping the back yard!

    • Getting the major pieces to fit together is great!

    • But, some times, the major pieces conflict or disrupt each other.

    • Sometimes the major pieces cause unacceptable problems

    • It’s time for the NBR!(Bad: Will happen, Could happen, Might happen)


    Compare the outcomes l.jpg

    UDE like this?

    Compare the Outcomes!

    Good Stuff!

    The Dark Side!

    DE

    DE

    DE

    Change (Injection) of expected Future Reality


    Positive twig from frt teen frt the injection looks worth it l.jpg
    Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT) like this?The Injection Looks Worth It!

    Good Stuff!

    I can decide about my future

    I feel in charge

    I’m inventive

    I feel free to choose

    Temporary, minor hurt is allowed


    Positive twig from frt teen frt but there is a problem l.jpg
    Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT) like this?But, There is a Problem

    Good Stuff!

    The Dark Side!

    I can decide about my future

    Teen my choose the wrong future!

    Focus Here

    I feel in charge

    I’m inventive

    Parent has had serious disagreement with Teen in the past

    I feel free to choose

    Temporary, minor hurt is allowed


    If it is worth it then l.jpg
    If it is worth it, then … like this?

    • Once you know the Injection or change in reality is worth going after, …

    • Examine the Negative Branch!

    • Trim the Negative Effects.

    • Trimming NBRs Provides a More Valuable Future!


    Positive twig from frt teen frt trimming l.jpg

    There are few serious differences in the future! like this?

    Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT)Trimming

    Good Stuff!

    The Dark Side!

    I can decide about my future

    Teen my choose the wrong future!

    Focus Here

    I feel in charge

    Parent Understands and Respects Teen

    I’m inventive

    Parent has had serious disagreement with Teen in the past

    I feel free to choose

    Temporary, minor hurt is allowed


    Categories of legitimate reservation skip to 102 l.jpg
    Categories of Legitimate Reservation like this?(skip to 102)

    • All Categories of Legitimate Reservation apply EXCEPT

      • Entity Existence Reservation

        • Some future elements may not exist yet!


    Crt logic versus frt l.jpg
    CRT Logic Versus FRT like this?

    • We are changing the world of the CRT.

    • Much of the negative things in the CRT will become new, positive things in the FRT.

    • But, its not enough to just convert them and retain the same logic connections as before

      IF I have a Dog THEN I have an Animal

      IF I don’t have a Dog THEN I don’t have an Animal

      Is that always true?


    Mapping logic crt to frt l.jpg
    Mapping Logic CRT to FRT like this?

    CRT

    C’

    B’

    FRT

    C

    B

    D’

    E’

    A’

    D

    E

    A

    Just because A goes away (Replaced by A’) A’ alone is not sufficient to cause B’ and C’. D’ and E’ are needed.

    A and D are independent causes of B

    As is E an independent Cause of C

    IF Dog THEN AnimalIF No Animal THEN No Dog


    If dog then animal if no animal then no dog l.jpg

    C’ like this?

    But can’t conclude there is no A. A could still be there if D or B are absent.

    A’

    IF Dog THEN AnimalIF No Animal THEN No Dog

    FRT

    CRT

    C’

    C

    B

    If C goes away, we can can conclude there is no E.

    E’

    D

    E

    A

    A and B are dependent causes of C

    E an independent Cause of C


    Another frequent logic error in frts l.jpg

    I eat a well balanced meal like this?

    I eat fruit

    I drink milk

    I eat vegetables

    I eat bread

    I eat meat

    Another frequent logic error in FRTs

    I eat vegetables

    I eat meat

    I eat bread

    I drink Milk

    I eat a well balanced meal

    Cause Reversal ReservationThe injection should define it’s contents.


    Problems that result from missing a cause reversal reservation in the frt l.jpg
    Problems that result from missing a Cause Reversal Reservation in the FRT

    IF I don’t eat a balanced meal THEN I don’t eat vegetables

    IF I don’t eat vegetablesTHEN I don’t eat a balanced meal

    Does that help to show the difference? And, why the Cause Reversal is a more serious concern in the FRT?


    About james holt l.jpg
    About James Holt Reservation in the FRT

    Dr. James R. Holt, is a Clinical Professor of Engineering Management at Washington State University focusing on the delivery of the best management technologies.. Dr. Holt has taught at the graduate level 18 years and has advised 85 engineering student theses and dissertations on a wide variety of topics. Dr. Holt is certified in the TOC Thinking Process, TOC Operations Management, TOC Project Management and TOC Holistic Strategy by the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization and serves as Chairman of the Board, TOCICO (Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization). He is happily married to Suzanne for 38 years; they have five children and nine grandchildren. www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/

    [Color Photo of Presenter]