TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process Tools Part 2: The FRT An overview for TOC Experts

1. TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process ToolsPart 2: The FRTAn overview for TOC Experts Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast! Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast! Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast! Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class? Presented By: James R. HoltProfessor, Washington State UniversityDate: June, 2009

2. Why do we have FRTs? • Validate the Injection will take us in the direction we want to go • Find the sufficiency (or insufficiency) of our solution (Additional Injections) • Surface Negative Branch Reservations • Attach the benefits of the injection to Tactic and Strategic objectives. • Establish Cooperation/Buy-in from others. • Substantiate the effect of needed Policy changes

3. Origin of the FRT • The Origin of the FRT is the Breakthrough Injection. • Generally, it takes more than one Breakthrough. • The Evaporating Cloud is the tool we use to surface the erroneous assumption (or the assumption we choose to attack) and to find a creative Injection. • Before discussing the Evaporating Cloud, let’s discuss the Categories of Legitimate Reservation to make sure our logic is sufficiently dry (not held together with saliva). All logic errors can be tracked back to insufficient use of theCategories of Legitimate Reservation

4. Categories of Legitimate Reservation First: Clarity Second: Entity Existence Causality Third Cause Insufficiency Additional Cause Cause Reversal Predicted Effect Tautology CLRs => Discovery! The Effect The Cause This simple set of rules which compiles all the key elements necessary and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic is one of Eliyhau M. Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking. While there are a long list of types of faulty arguments associated with debate and rhetoric, they refer mostly to argument and negotiation. The Categories of Legitimate Reservation apply to finding the Truth.

5. Categories of Legitimate Reservation: CLR – Clarity Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity for scrutiny often missed when voiced only. A School only for Pretty Girls? Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls? Or, just a very Little School? Could it be a school for one particular Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)? Are there boys there too? Does the building look particularly nice? What is the enrollment? This is a pretty little girls school This is a small school for girls

6. CLR – Entity Existence The exterior appearance of the car doesn’t matter A brand new Lexus costs $15,000 There is free maintenance for 100,000 miles Operating costs of the car are of little concern Entity Existence Reservation: “Do these things really exist in your world?”

7. CLR – Causality I become a millionaire I need a car I need pants like Joe’s I want to be different My roommate has a car I buy stock Causality: Show me how the parts in the Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from the Cause (from the tail). The Effect I receive 20% interest I open a Savings Account The Cause There are problems with each one.

8. CLR – Cause Insufficiency My Group Project goes well My Project goes well Insufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well. I get excellent grades in Class Insufficiency Reservation: Your Group needs to complete a good Group Project too. I turn-in good homework

9. CLR – (More on Insufficiency) Not without the Triangle! Is it sufficient?

10. CLR – Additional Cause Additional Cause Reservation: Additional Cause Reservation: I drive too fast I carry heavy loads The “Bow Tie” – Magnitudinal And Connector says, “If two or more of these independent causes occur together, I really don’t get good Gas Mileage!” I don’t get good Gas Mileage Ah-Ha! We see at least one area were improvement is possible. My Truck is large

11. CLR – Cause Reversal My Garage is too small. I can’t get my car in the Garage. My Garage is full of stuff My Garage is full of stuff. My Garage is too small. The small Garage didn’t cause all the stuff in the Garage.

12. CLR – Predicted Effect Predicted Effect Reservation: If our income is too low, I would expect to see most people with the same income unable to pay their bills. Others with the same income would not be able to pay their bills And yet, I see lots of people with the same or less income paying their bills just fine. We have too many bills We buy too many things that many others don’t need Many others with same or less income do pay their bills Discovery Happens! We don’t have enough money to pay our bills Our Income is too low

13. CLR-Tautology ReservationA Too Tight a Logical Loop 11. A Male and Female Chicken can produce a fertile Egg 14. There is a Male Chicken OR 20. There is a fertile Egg 16. There is a Female Chicken Tautology is the Most Frequent Logical Error. Too Tight a Logic Loop 10. There is a Chicken 20. There is an Egg A Longer Logical LoopResolves the Age Old Question But, maybe there were two eggs first!

14. CLR – TautologyThe Cause is the Excuse • Whenever you hear, a BECAUSE, that is the same as the Effect you have a Tautology (bad logic). Alert #1  Most Frequent Logical Error. The Beavers lost the game • The Circular Logic of the Cause is accepted because of the Effect. The Effect The Beavers are a lousy team. The Cause • “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?” • “Because, they lost the game didn’t they!”

15. CLR – TautologyThe Cause is Hard to Define • When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, we need to dig further. Alert #2  Most Frequent Logical Error. • The Circular Logic of the Tautology comes from a Cause which is often abstract; difficult to determine, define or quantify. • So, too often the Cause is not challenged. • And, the undefined Cause is accepted because of the Effect. The Beavers lost the game The Beavers are a lousy team. • To resolve the Tautology, the Cause needs to be something that can be determined and challenged; Not an Abstract Concept. • In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that mean? We need another substantial meaning.

16. CLR – Tautology: Searching For An Alternate Connection The Beavers are depressed by their mistakes The Beavers face an easy team People feel bad when they make dumb mistakes The Beavers are perceived as a lousy team. The Beavers play a lousy game The Beavers are in a slump The Beavers don’t execute well The Beavers don’t prepare well for games They are not thinking clearly Most Frequent Logical Error. The Beavers lost the game The Beavers are a lousy team. The Beavers may not be so bad after all. Injection: The Beavers learn from dumb mistakes

17. How Do Tautologies Happen? They are obstinate They are obstinate I push them harder I push them hard They still don’t do it I push them Most Frequent Logical Error. Do we every stop to think, “Why?” Why don’t people do what they are told? Hum? They don’t do it I tell them what to do

18. Cause for the Tautology Knee Jerk Reaction In General, the most common error in “Jumping to Conclusions” is the Tautology! Hum?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks? Alert #3  Most Frequent Logical Error. Sometimes a Tautology is a single statement. They are Muslims He won’t help us He is Black She’s a Woman He is a jerk Men! They are Poor They are Part of Management! He’s a Polack

19. Scrutinize the ‘Knee Jerk’ When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)… When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT… When the ABSTRACT is DEROGITORY … Tautology Reservation is Inevitable! • Basic Assumptions of The Theory of Constraints: Every action is logical (within the environment and in accordance with the individual’s understanding of their ability to change the environment) All People Think All People are Good Alerts to Tautology Errors: Emotion is evidence of passionate, logical thinking! Don’t let a Tautology waste it.

20. Correcting a Tautology Error Management is Incompetent Management Ignores me => Management Doesn’t Respond I don’t get what I need I’m important I do a good job I am not the system’s problem Management Doesn’t Listen Management must be dealing with some very serious needs I’m glad it’s not me! They are Part of Management! Why Should they? Management’s Role is to oversee the systemic performance

21. The Evaporating Cloud:Human Behavior Processes The Goal: CooperationThe Measure: Success of the groupThe Constraint: Conflict • The other party is starting to be obnoxious • I spend time justifying my side of the argument • I feel I must attack the other side’s opinion (debate) • I’m becoming as stubborn as the the other side • The conflict will probably be resolved by force! “Life is a Tug of War”

22. Tug of War Human Behavior Type Processes The Problem: Conflict The Paradigm Shift: Every person is Right (there is no logical conflict), based upon each person’s understanding of the situation and their perception of their ability to change it. B. Appreciate the other side D. Give-in to the other side A. Have successful Relationships C. Be respected D’. Don’t Give-in to the other side

23. Assumption: I’m the only one who knows what is right. Assumption: My Boss disagrees with what is right. Solution: Check the Underlying Assumptions My boss is incompetent. The boss’ personality and management style irritates some employees. • Implications: • I haven’t been telling my boss what is important. • I don’t understand my boss’ world. B. I keep my Job D. I put up with my Boss A. I contribute to our Organization Injection: I have good communication with my boss. C. I do what I think is right D’. I don’t put up with my Boss

24. Evaporating the Cloud • Evaporating the Cloud is the process of making the Assumptions that bind us to the conflict no longer valid. The Conflict Evaporates. • Finding the Assumptions is sometimes easy: In order to have (Head) I must have (Tail) because … (Fill in the blank). • Finding a Breakthrough injection may be hard. • Because the breakthrough injection can’t be done. • Really? Why? • Because, …. If I do this, then that will occur! • Sounds like an NBR or another EC!

25. How to proceed? • First, I strongly suggest you identify the five (5 or more) assumptions for each arrow in your Core Conflict Cloud, so you have several targets. • Second, Try the absurd approach, "There is absolutely no way to __ without __ Since __ Blocks you every step of the way,” filling in the blanks at each arrow. • Third, a reference environment helps. "In order eat, I must have money because I pay for my food." Where are all the places that I can go and eat or situations where I don't have to pay to eat? Jail, Church Buffet, Military Chow Line, Mom's ....

26. Impossible Injection? (Jump to 32) • Fourth, DON'T DISCARD AN IMPOSSIBLE INJECTION! - Most breakthrough injections come as you dig deeper. - Often you come up with an injection and quickly discard it because it is impossible in your environment. - DON'T DO THAT! If it is impossible, it’s just harder to do. - It just means there is some conflict associated with your injection that caused you to give up. - Record the impossible injection the same as you would in a brain storming session. - Hey, you could have five or more impossible injections. No problem. Just pick one that looks potentially possible and dig deeper. That is, put the impossible injection at the D position of a new cloud. Let D' be the reason you can't do it. And carry on to break that new cloud.

27. Dealing with the Impossible • Example: • A. Produce high-performance fighter aircraft • B. Light weight • C. Affordable • D. Made from Composites • D'. Made from Aluminum • Assumption C<-D’: High Temp Cure is a problem for fabrication and for repair (Move to D).

28. Driving Down into the Cloud • Deeper Example: • A. Excellent aircraft material • B. Durable • C. Withstand high variations in temperature • D. Low Cure Temp composites • D'. High Cure Temp composites • Assumption C<-D’: Only High Temp Cure has high glass transition point (Move to D).

29. Closer to a Solution • A. Practical Fighter • B. Structure suitable for all temp ranges • C. Field repairable • D. High glass transition point • D'. Low glass transition point • Assumption C<-D’: The only way to field cure high temperature resin is with a electron beam gun (Move to D).

30. Possible Injections • A. Practical Fighter • B. Repairable • C. Things we Know • D. Use Electron Beam Gun • D' Not use Electron beam gun • Assumption C<-D’: We are not in Star Trek here. • Injection: We remove the door from the microwave in the NCO Club and nuke the daylights out of the composite resin. We can do this whenever we have to patch a hole in a composite wing in the field. • Hey mon, this may not work but at least we know where we are trying to go and can focus basic research.

31. Use an alternative beam source Create a throw-away Fighter Develop a new resin that is self binding (Velcro Resin) Use things that others know that we don’t Discover Impossible Technology A Basic Core Conflict Shows Avenues for Basic Research D. Use Electron Beam Gun B. Repairable A Practical Fighter D1’. Don’t use an Electron Beam Gun C. Things we know

32. A Case for an FRT:A Teenager’s World I always get into trouble I don’t make good decisions I never get to do what I want I’m bored My life offers little challenge I am controlled by others I’m not dependable I’m unpredictable I am not obedient I rebel I am easily bored I am overwhelmed I’m demanding I don’t plan too well I am excitement bound! I am short sited I’m easily distracted Too much busy work

33. Building the Order B1. Have some fun A1. Grow safely Jeopardy: Staying Home is no fun! Jeopardy: Going out with stranger can be unsafe. C1. Be safe D1’. Don’t go out with stranger Story line: You have a terrible fight with Mom. You want to go out with a strange boy you just met. He looks so COOL! Reads logically: In order to (Head) I must have (Tail) No conflict between B and C. Clear Conflict between D and D1. 3. Why I want what want! 1. What do I want? 5. Why we are still talking about this! D1. Go out with stranger 4. Why they want what they want! 2. What do they want?

34. Communicating Order B1. Have some fun A1. Grow safely C1. Be safe D1’. Don’t go out with stranger 4. The mutually recognized need I have 5. What I want to do to fill that need D1. Go out with stranger 1. Our Mutual Goal! 2. What the other side wants for us 3. What the other side is asking for.

35. Practice on Jeopardy Story line: A teenage boy doesn’t appreciate his mother What is the Jeopardy between D and C? B1. Give Thanks D1. Show appreciation A1. Mature D1’. Be macho (independent) C1. Self reliant

36. Practice on Jeopardy Reword D1: Does this give us a better understanding of the Conflict? B1. Give Thanks D1. Show appreciation D1. Show dependence A1. Mature D1’. Be macho (independent) C1. Self reliant

37. A Three-Cloud on Teenagers D1 Give in B2 Cooperate D2 Expect Reliability B1 Obedient B3 Responsible D3 Tolerate boredom A1 Make good decisions B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A2 Develop responsibility A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm A3 Be a Good Kid Not D Be treated as a child Not D3 Have Fun C1 Independent Not D1 Rebel C3 Enjoy Life Not D2 Tolerate unreliability C2 Autonomous

38. B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm Not D Be treated as a child Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud • Let’s consider our earlier conflict and surface some assumptions. • Good CitizenGood Decisions BECAUSE: • Making your own decisions is part of citizenship • Poor decisions are expensive • Experimenting can get you in deep trouble • Good citizens don’t do dumb things

39. B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm Not D Be treated as a child Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud • Good DecisionsAdult BECAUSE: • Youth need to be challenged to grow • Only adults are free to make choices • Only adults can make good decisions • Choices with limits are really not free choices

40. B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm Not D Be treated as a child Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud • Good CitizenProtection BECAUSE: • There are too many devastating alternatives • Don’t want youth to be hurt • One mistake in the wrong place is too many • There are lots of bad things out there

41. B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm Not D Be treated as a child Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud • ProtectionChild BECAUSE: • Youth often are not aware of the dangers • Adults know better • Youth can’t learn • Youth make short sighted choices • Youth can’t imagine the consequences of some bad choices (we protected them to now)

42. B Learn to make good decisions D Be treated as an adult A Develop into a good citizen C Be protected from serious harm Not D Be treated as a child Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud Hum? Is it better to build a fence at the top of the Cliff?Or, Keep an ambulance at the bottom of the Cliff?Hum? • AdultChild BECAUSE: • Youth can’t make decisions about adult things • Children are easily confused with conflicting directions • Adults send mixed messages • “Am I a grown-up or not?”

43. A Base to Start the CRT 164 Youth will push the envelope (try adult things too soon) 162 Youth will reject responsibility and parental advice 160 Youth are not sure where they stand 145 There is pressure to be treated as an adult 151 Youth can’t decide on their own which things are Adult things (can’t see danger down the road) 150 There is pressure to be treated as a child 125 Youth need to be challenged to make tough decisions 140 Youth often are not aware of dangers around them 135 We need protection from serious harm 130 We need to learn to make good decisions 120 There are too many devastating experiences that could take a youth down 110 Making our own decisions is part of citizenship 100 We want to Become a good citizen

44. Invalidating Assumptions Finding the Injection • Sometimes, just exposing (verbalizing) the assumption is enough to find the error. • Question the assumption, “Why does it have to exist? Should it continue to exist?” The assumption may be weak under the spotlight. • Consider some ‘better management practices’ that we are not doing to see if there are already solutions which have already eliminated this assumption. • Consider your TOC Experience (IT’S NOT LUCK and others) • Have you heard of others who found the same assumption negative and tried to break it? • Study Strategy and Tactic Trees (www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em534/)

45. Challenging Assumptions • Sometimes the reason an assumption exists is simply a deeper assumption. Keep asking “Why?” • Find a Reference Environment (different than yours) where “In order to (tip of the arrow), I must have (tail of the arrow)” holds, but the assumption doesn’t. To Eat  Have Money (I must have money) • Hum? If I go to jail, I get free food! • Hum? Church Picnic, Grandmas, Army, ... • Absurdities work very well. “Its impossible to eat without money!” Keep trying them.

46. Assumptions Making your own decisions is part of citizenship Poor decisions are expensive Experimenting can get you in deep trouble Don’t do dumb things Injections Youth don’t need to be good citizens They don’t play where they can’t afford it The zone of experimentation is restricted (Safe Zone) Do smart things Good CitizenGood Decisions A direct opposite is ‘sort of’ an injection. But, its not a breakthrough.

47. Assumptions Youth need to be challenged to grow Only adults are free to make choices Choices with limits are really not free choices Injections There are safe challenges that provide growth Kids make good choices. Real choices in safe situations can teach good things. Good DecisionsTreat AsAdult

48. Assumptions Too many devastating alternatives Don’t want youth to be hurt One mistake in the wrong place is too many Lots of things can hurt you Injections Restrict to safe alternatives Allow temporary,minor hurt There is a safety buffer Restrict to acceptable alternatives Good CitizenProtect From Harm

49. Assumptions Youth often are not aware of the dangers Adults know better You can’t learn Youth make short sighted choices Injections We have a long history of good communications (talk to youth) “Do what I say, not what I do” (I can’t explain why.) There are many opportunities to learn Youth make amazingly bright choices ProtectTreat as a Child

50. Assumptions Youth can’t decide about adult things Children are easily confused with conflicting directions Adults send a mixed message “Am I a grown-up or not?” Injections Youth are aware of adult things and know when to say away Life decisions are clearly right and wrong Adults don’t try to push youth too fast nor hold them back too long Youth are allowed to mature naturally Treat as AdultTreat as Child